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Immigration Does Not = Hpi

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I have read many threads suggesting that prices will not fall because of immigration. In the Times today the Home section carried a piece with details of the latest Halifax data showing house prices falling in Slough. Slough has taken in a huge number of immigrants ( don't know the actual figures - nor do the government ) so much so that the council have complained to the governement that the infrastructure cannot cope. This would seem to disprove the theory that immigration is causing HPI and will maintain overvalued property prices.

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This would seem to disprove the theory that immigration is causing HPI and will maintain overvalued property prices.

IMO localised activity can't be used to generalise nationally and many factors influence HPI...

Edited by dnd

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I don't buy the immigraton argument either. Unless they come here with £150K+ burning a hole in their pocket and an overwhelming desire to squeeze themselves in to a pokey studio flat they aren't going to make one iota of difference to HPI.

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I don't buy the immigraton argument either. Unless they come here with £150K+ burning a hole in their pocket and an overwhelming desire to squeeze themselves in to a pokey studio flat they aren't going to make one iota of difference to HPI.

That is a very stupid comment. They don't need to buy to have an influence on prices. A BTL landlord will buy, then rent to them. This is additional demand which of course pushes up prices.

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Same in Peterborough. I managed to get out just in time, as my neighbor sold to a Mr Singh who promptly had the house full of Poles.

Next door but one on the other side has been on the market for TWO FULL YEARS WITHOUT A PRICE REDUCTION. Same for another house a few doors down.

You would have thought those Poles moving in would have jolted prices on the road up 20%, but somehow, this has not happened.

La la land, la la la. :ph34r:

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IMO localised activity can't be used to generalise nationally and many factors influence HPI...

Those areas with the highest levels of immigration will be the first to show the eventual effects. The initial effect is one of increased demand for rental properties, BTL'ers dive in, property rockets (for a while) then the fallout occurs in the local economy, meanwhile increasing sums of money actually get extracted from the local economy as wages get sent/spent home (abroad).

Falling wages and unemployment/underemployment, nightmare scenario when combined with huge debt and hidden inflation.

Edited by OnlyMe

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That is a very stupid comment. They don't need to buy to have an influence on prices. A BTL landlord will buy, then rent to them. This is additional demand which of course pushes up prices.

If you think folk who come here and work for peanuts to undercut those of us who work for slightly more than peanuts can afford to rent places that we can't then you are as stupid as you are suggesting that I am.

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If you think folk who come here and work for peanuts to undercut those of us who work for slightly more than peanuts can afford to rent places that we can't then you are as stupid as you are suggesting that I am.

If you just said what I think you just said, I agree.

Immigrants renting houses will drag their value down. Q.E.D.

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That is a very stupid comment. They don't need to buy to have an influence on prices. A BTL landlord will buy, then rent to them. This is additional demand which of course pushes up prices.

They aren't renting stupid they're living on the streets haven't you seen the news?

They also piled into Birmingham and.. wow hp has fallen there too.

Poles will not rent in the conventional way you think to keep prices down they will live 3 to a room if they can afford it or just squat in an empty building, just like the immigrants of the 60's .. and hmmmmm did those immigranrs cause or support HPI?

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If you just said what I think you just said, I agree.

Immigrants renting houses will drag their value down. Q.E.D.

I can see your argument on a localised level. If they are seen as undesirable neighbours then people will move away and there will be less demand hence prices may fall (although the slack is taken up by landlords who can make a decent return by cramming them in at low rents. Hence an investment market develops where the cost of finance is the main determinant of price).

BUT, what of those who leave if they consider the area to be less attractive? They move onto other areas, hence increasing demand there and driving up prices.

It's basically like a plumbing system with slightly flexible pipes that can take some additional water without an increase in pressure. But beyond a certain point the pressure increases.

If you think folk who come here and work for peanuts to undercut those of us who work for slightly more than peanuts can afford to rent places that we can't then you are as stupid as you are suggesting that I am.

Has the fact that they are living at greater densities than we would consider acceptable completely bypassed you? They can afford the rents if there are more of them per household.

And what of those who are displaced? They move elsewhere, increasing overall demand for housing, driving up prices. This is so obvious that it beggars belief that it is being denied.

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Has the fact that they are living at greater densities than we would consider acceptable completely bypassed you? They can afford the rents if there are more of them per household.

And when two people move abroad, selling their house to a guy who stuffs a dozen Poles into it, what do you think that does for housing demand?

This is so obvious that it beggars belief that it is being denied.

What beggars belief is that people think that immigrants living three to a room is going to dramatically drive up housing demand... particularly when most British people apparently want to emigrate and, reportedly, 350,000 are every year already.

Edited by MarkG

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And when two people move abroad, selling their house to a guy who stuffs a dozen Poles into it, what do you think that does for housing demand?

What beggars belief is that people think that immigrants living three to a room is going to dramatically drive up housing demand... particularly when most British people apparently want to emigrate and, reportedly, 350,000 are every year already.

Incredible how some of you pick up on a story in the news and then attempt to apply it accross the board as though it's the general rule

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And when two people move abroad, selling their house to a guy who stuffs a dozen Poles into it, what do you think that does for housing demand?

What beggars belief is that people think that immigrants living three to a room is going to dramatically drive up housing demand... particularly when most British people apparently want to emigrate and, reportedly, 350,000 are every year already.

Are you seriously suggesting that the UK population has not undergone a large expansion over the last 5-10 years, including both legal and illegal?

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Are you seriously suggesting that the UK population has not undergone a large expansion over the last 5-10 years, including both legal and illegal?

The point you're missing is that population level is irrelevant: what matters is how people live.

As I said, if two British people emigrate and sell their house to a guy who rents it to a dozen Poles, then you'd claim that housing demand _MUST_ have increased because the population has increased, yet in reality there's no difference whatsoever.

But, hey, if you want to buy a 350k 'executive flat' because you think you'll be able to sell it for more in a couple of years to a Polish immigrant who's doing six minimum wage jobs simultaneously to pay the mortgage, go ahead.

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The point you're missing is that population level is irrelevant: what matters is how people live.

As I said, if two British people emigrate and sell their house to a guy who rents it to a dozen Poles, then you'd claim that housing demand _MUST_ have increased because the population has increased, yet in reality there's no difference whatsoever.

But, hey, if you want to buy a 350k 'executive flat' because you think you'll be able to sell it for more in a couple of years to a Polish immigrant who's doing six minimum wage jobs simultaneously to pay the mortgage, go ahead.

A persons benefits can pay their rent

eg1. The unemployed

eg2. Asylum seekers

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The point you're missing is that population level is irrelevant: what matters is how people live.

As I said, if two British people emigrate and sell their house to a guy who rents it to a dozen Poles, then you'd claim that housing demand _MUST_ have increased because the population has increased, yet in reality there's no difference whatsoever.

But, hey, if you want to buy a 350k 'executive flat' because you think you'll be able to sell it for more in a couple of years to a Polish immigrant who's doing six minimum wage jobs simultaneously to pay the mortgage, go ahead.

I am not missing the point at all. I just think that your suggestion that the numbers are perfectly balanced and aren't in fact increasing demand for property is ridiculous.

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A persons benefits can pay their rent

Maybe the rent pixies could pay it too.

If you think that any government is going to be able to get away for long with paying rent for large numbers of immigrants who are taking jobs from British people, you're deluded. Current levels of immigration alone are causing enough political unrest, without giving vast amounts of our money to them to pay BTLs.

I just think that your suggestion that the numbers are perfectly balanced and aren't in fact increasing demand for property is ridiculous.

Where exactly did I say the numbers are 'perfectly balanced'?

Ah, I didn't.

In fact, if the numbers on emigration are to be believed, I suspect that immigration is merely helping to hide a reduction in housing demand. You can cram an awful lot of low-paid immigrants into the houses vacated by 350,000 British people every year.

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Maybe the rent pixies could pay it too.

If you think that any government is going to be able to get away for long with paying rent for large numbers of immigrants who are taking jobs from British people, you're deluded. Current levels of immigration alone are causing enough political unrest, without giving vast amounts of our money to them to pay BTLs.

I'm talking about the current reality based on current real life first hand experience

No conjecture or delusion about the future is envolved I am stating actual facts

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Where exactly did I say the numbers are 'perfectly balanced'?

Ah, I didn't.

In fact, if the numbers on emigration are to be believed, I suspect that immigration is merely helping to hide a reduction in housing demand. You can cram an awful lot of low-paid immigrants into the houses vacated by 350,000 British people every year.

This is a first. So you contend that there is actually a reduction in housing demand?

The CEBR disagree with you: CEBR - population is 1.5m higher than government figures

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House prices falling in Slough. What a load of tripe.

Houses heer are being snapped up very quickly and asking prices are still increasing. I read the local property news every week and check out all the EA's because I am always looking for a place that needs renovating. Not to btl but to live in myself. I can only assume that more is selling in the north of Slough which is where average prices are less than 3/4 of the value of the average. This is where the drugs problem is and where most youngsters turn to crime rather than go to school and eventually work for a living.

Remember when asians and west indians came over in the 50's and 60's (and since of course). They worked hard, often with 2 more more jobs. How many struggling asians and west indians do you know because they are are among the affluent here in Slough. Whether the poles will turn out the same remains to be seen but I wouldn't write them off just yet.

Immigration = + HPI. The most expensive city in the world, London has the most immigrants in the UK.

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The point you're missing is that population level is irrelevant: what matters is how people live.

As I said, if two British people emigrate and sell their house to a guy who rents it to a dozen Poles, then you'd claim that housing demand _MUST_ have increased because the population has increased, yet in reality there's no difference whatsoever.

True in that scenario housing demand will not increase. However when they can get housing benefit in 2 or 3 years time then most of them will be able to move out and get another house.

Also do you really think that the decrease in houses needed caused by people living the UK over the last 10 years = the increase caused by immigration ? Even the government does not believe that.

Maybe the rent pixies could pay it too.

If you think that any government is going to be able to get away for long with paying rent for large numbers of immigrants who are taking jobs from British people, you're deluded. Current levels of immigration alone are causing enough political unrest, without giving vast amounts of our money to them to pay BTLs.

Where exactly did I say the numbers are 'perfectly balanced'?

I know lots of immigrants who get cheap housing from the government or free. They seem to be getting away with it at the moment by shouting racist a lot. Do you live in the UK ???

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immigrant tent to rent at todays silly prices but that money for landlords and that in turn pushes up rents and more people then go for BTL property that puts house prices up

The flood of immigrants over the past six year created the BTL boom in the first place.

i would love to know the real number of immigrtants that they are letting in and also why we let Blair let them in

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immigrant tent to rent at todays silly prices but that money for landlords and that in turn pushes up rents and more people then go for BTL property that puts house prices up

The flood of immigrants over the past six year created the BTL boom in the first place.

i would love to know the real number of immigrtants that they are letting in and also why we let Blair let them in

Maybe it's seen as a way of fixing the ageing population scenario

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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