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75% Think Ir’s Will Rise

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How often have the VI's stated that the UKhousing market is underpinned by low IR and strong labour markets?

http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,301...3541714,00.html

If confidence and sentiment are key drivers of the current housing boom, it may be turning

This is from Sky which is very mainstream and is watched by many people that, for want of better word(s) are - the masses, Joe Public, sheeple etc,

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But this is the problem, IMO. People are now starting to expect IRs to rise and will probably start cutting cut and reigning in spending. The result will probably be a drop in demand and inflation (and HPI). I'm not convinced IRs are going to be hiked aggressively at all, I'm not even convinced of the need to also.

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Tuesday, 12th Sept. is a big day - CPI data is out, which should show a jump in inflation.

If we see that, IRs will rise in October

You must know something I don't, because most of the forecasts I have seen are actually quite tame.

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But this is the problem, IMO. People are now starting to expect IRs to rise and will probably start cutting cut and reigning in spending. The result will probably be a drop in demand and inflation (and HPI). I'm not convinced IRs are going to be hiked aggressively at all, I'm not even convinced of the need to also.

I'd agree that the majority of households can reign in their spending a bit, so a couple of small IR rises are neither here nor there, but I'd suggest that a lot of these people have had nothing much to do with the current boom (i.e. if they have neither bought or sold in the last few years, they are bystanders)

Its the minority that actually move the market and these are the people that are much more likely to be affected, which in turn can have quite a knock on effect to the majority

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Tuesday, 12th Sept. is a big day - CPI data is out, which should show a jump in inflation.

If we see that, IRs will rise in October

I think youll be very disappointed, petrol prices are down nearly 10% in the last month. I expect CPI to fall and th epress to declare no more rate rises.

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I'd agree that the majority of households can reign in their spending a bit, so a couple of small IR rises are neither here nor there, but I'd suggest that a lot of these people have had nothing much to do with the current boom (i.e. if they have neither bought or sold in the last few years, they are bystanders)

Its the minority that actually move the market and these are the people that are much more likely to be affected, which in turn can have quite a knock on effect to the majority

Yes to many it will just be a inconvieniance , but to the 1,000's and 1,000's of amateur BTLers who bought in the last few years many of whom are making nothing on there " investments " a couple of small interest rises will hurt them and hopefully they may think stuff this BTL game and put there " investments " back on the market in the hope of getting out , there " investments " will then be competing with the many awful new builds that arn't selling , as well as all the repo's all looking for potential buyers .

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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