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Willy Weasel

Change In Sentiment?

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I see this morning that there are 7 threads on the front page all started by people who have stopped believing in HPC or who can't wait any longer before buying.

Are we seeing the start of a change in sentiment?

I think the latest Halifax figures have made people think that we are still no nearer to HPC. Lots of us have personal reasons for wanting to buy and can't just put our lives on hold for years waiting for the crash to happen. I guess that if we have a 'soft' landing the only people who will really lose out will be the uberbears who refused to buy.

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Are we seeing the start of a change in sentiment?

I think the latest Halifax figures have made people think that we are still no nearer to HPC. Lots of us have personal reasons for wanting to buy and can't just put our lives on hold for years waiting for the crash to happen. I guess that if we have a 'soft' landing the only people who will really lose out will be the uberbears who refused to buy.

Some people will give up quicker than others.

Buy if you want to live in it. Think long term.

Consider how safe your job might be if the economy is "crashing" along with house prices.

Get on with your life and dont get hung up on whether there will be a crash or not or how big and when.

Put in ridiculously low offers and somebody will bight sooner or later.

Good luck.

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I see this morning that there are 7 threads on the front page all started by people who have stopped believing in HPC or who can't wait any longer before buying.

Are we seeing the start of a change in sentiment?

I think the latest Halifax figures have made people think that we are still no nearer to HPC. Lots of us have personal reasons for wanting to buy and can't just put our lives on hold for years waiting for the crash to happen. I guess that if we have a 'soft' landing the only people who will really lose out will be the uberbears who refused to buy.

When the last bear turns bull...

:)

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I see this morning that there are 7 threads on the front page all started by people who have stopped believing in HPC or who can't wait any longer before buying.

Are we seeing the start of a change in sentiment?

No. It's just that the VI's have temporarily taken over the asylum :lol:

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Its a bit like a war. Just as we get near victory the propaganda machine goes into overdrive. Halifax say its going up 1%. Much less reported and much more accurate FT Index counters with a very different story--up a measly 0.3%.

CCJs going through the roof with new data out this week--not a mention in the mainstream press.

Some VIs admitting that the market is too high and may be strangling itself--see Woolwich thread.

IMO, focus on the realities and ignore the hype. With unemployment rising, FTBs extinct, IR on the rise, BTL yields at 5 year lows and sinking, US economy tanking a UK government in the midst of a civil war--this market is going nowhere.

I have never been so optimistic about a crash and I am even believing it is going to be longer, deeper and uglier than previously thought. After all Mervyun said house prices are just opinion whereas the debt is real and we are now headed toward 1.3 Trillion pounds of it in an increasing IR environment. Its spells: D I S A S T E R

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/News/property/...#036;449815.htm

House prices rise 0.3% on FT index
Friday, 08 Sep 2006 12:22
House prices rose
0.3 per cent
in August, according to the FT house price index.
Monthly house price growth has strengthened slightly in August to 0.3 per cent following weak performances in June and July," said Gary Styles, economics director at Academetrics.
"Within this upbeat national picture
London and the south-east have only seen monthly growth of around 0.1 per cent
therefore a further narrowing in regional differentials seems likely this year.

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/news/property/...#036;449120.htm

Summer heat leaves London property market
Friday, 01 Sep 2006 09:13
House price growth at the top end of the London property market slowed in August
The price of premium homes in central London rose by less than one per cent in August as house prices cooled, new data shows.

A very different picture than painted by the VIs?

Edited by Realistbear

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I think the latest Halifax figures have made people think that we are still no nearer to HPC. Lots of us have personal reasons for wanting to buy and can't just put our lives on hold for years waiting for the crash to happen. I guess that if we have a 'soft' landing the only people who will really lose out will be the uberbears who refused to buy.

This is the mentality that needs to change - Why do people consider not buying 'putting their lives on hold'?

my view is that you pay as little as possible to live somewhere as nice as possible - ok, i'm lucky in that i have a well paying job (or did!) but i pay half in rent what it would cost to own the place i live in - i save plenty, which when compounded is very likely to out-perform house price inflation for the coming years - i pay money into a personal pension that, contrary to popular belief (and especially with tax relief) will outperform house price inflation - i have a very enjoyable life-style

at the end of the day, all these people who claim they are going to have a valuable asset in their house may well do so, but the downside is that they need it to live in - if they want the cash to live off then they need to sell, which just puts them in the same position as anyone else who rents

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Im currently having a disagreement with my wife, who wants to buy as she claims she wants to live in the house for 20 years. Fine, but currently we pay £300/month and we rent a 4 Bedroom house in an area that has the lowest crime rate in the whole of the UK. To buy a similar house would cost us £1200/month in mortgage payments.

The argument is that houses will always go up in the long run, blah blah blah.

I know the market here has peaked, people bought houses in the spring and summer, but some are moving again and now cant even sell their house at a discount.

3 Houses locally that have had to reduce prices and still wont sell.

£300,000 down to £260,000 (8 Bedroom house - been on the market for months and months)

£250,000 down to £225,000

£180,000 down to £170,000 (They paid £180,000 earlier this year, but will be lucky to get £150,000 for it now).

Worse thing is the local builders are slapping up loads of new houses and expecting them to sell for £250,000+

People still believe people are coming up from south with loads of money to buy up all of these properties.

House prices in the area I live rose 20% in the last year, but now things are selling really slow.

Personally im in no hurry to buy and even if houses don't drop it doesn't really bother me.

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After a hectic start to the year the market around me has gone very quiet these past 2 months.....and the july/august holiday period didn't slow down the market in previous summers...

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This is the mentality that needs to change - Why do people consider not buying 'putting their lives on hold'?

my view is that you pay as little as possible to live somewhere as nice as possible - ok, i'm lucky in that i have a well paying job (or did!) but i pay half in rent what it would cost to own the place i live in - i save plenty, which when compounded is very likely to out-perform house price inflation for the coming years - i pay money into a personal pension that, contrary to popular belief (and especially with tax relief) will outperform house price inflation - i have a very enjoyable life-style

at the end of the day, all these people who claim they are going to have a valuable asset in their house may well do so, but the downside is that they need it to live in - if they want the cash to live off then they need to sell, which just puts them in the same position as anyone else who rents

I agree with you. The main reason I hope to own a house "one day" is so that I don't have to stress about rent or mortgage in retirement. But I've got at least 35 years yet. Maybe more if I work on after 65.

If I could be sure that I could save enough money now to more than cover renting in my retirement (on top of all other outgoings), then I would not feel any desperate urge to own at all.

The way things are looking for my generation in retirement though, it seems advisable not to assume that that will be the case, despite the fact that I am currently paying 11% of my gross salary into a pension (before tax relief is added).

I would rather aim to own my home outright by the time I retire, so that the only essential expenses I will have to worry about on my meagre fixed income will be food, utilities and of course the dreaded council tax.

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

The way things are looking for my generation in retirement though, it seems advisable not to assume that that will be the case, despite the fact that I am currently paying 11% of my gross salary into a pension (before tax relief is added).

I would rather aim to own my home outright by the time I retire, so that the only essential expenses I will have to worry about on my meagre fixed income will be food, utilities and of course the dreaded council tax.

Absolutely agree, and the whole pension/NI contributions thing makes my blood boil. Like you I pay in about 11%, yet am resigned to the real possibility that it will be worthless when I retire. Much better surely to put that 11% into something real, like a home.

The govt. say 'You need to make provision for retirement'. Fine, I won't pay any NI then.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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