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Charlie Don't Surf

Why The Crash Hasn't Happened Yet?

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For those of us from time to time feel like we belong to some strange cult predicting the end of the Earth and keep getting the timing wrong it has occurred to me it is very hard to call the crash for one major reason.

We have been fundamentally right the whole time. The fundamentals are in place, the cheap credit has run out and the economy is far less healthy than any of the mainstream media care to mention. So why hasn't the crash happened yet?

Well it seems to me that there is a second force in the equation. We have the fundamentals but fighting this tooth and nail are the media, government and a whole horde of VIs. So whilst in a logical world HPI would have ground to a halt 2 years back like many of us predicted there is massive resistance to this.

Think what the media can do, these are the people who can determine what kind of body shape we find attractive! With property still a massive revenue earner they're going to spin this one out as long as possible.

I'm sure most of you already know this. But I thought some evangilsim might do me good! At the end of the day the longer a 'correction' is postponed the more it's going to hurt. I'm a current member of the 50% club!

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For those of us from time to time feel like we belong to some strange cult predicting the end of the Earth and keep getting the timing wrong it has occurred to me it is very hard to call the crash for one major reason.

We have been fundamentally right the whole time. The fundamentals are in place, the cheap credit has run out and the economy is far less healthy than any of the mainstream media care to mention. So why hasn't the crash happened yet?

Well it seems to me that there is a second force in the equation. We have the fundamentals but fighting this tooth and nail are the media, government and a whole horde of VIs. So whilst in a logical world HPI would have ground to a halt 2 years back like many of us predicted there is massive resistance to this.

Think what the media can do, these are the people who can determine what kind of body shape we find attractive! With property still a massive revenue earner they're going to spin this one out as long as possible.

I'm sure most of you already know this. But I thought some evangilsim might do me good! At the end of the day the longer a 'correction' is postponed the more it's going to hurt. I'm a current member of the 50% club!

The strange cult is still firmly in place if you think the fundamentals for a crash have been in place all along! :huh::o:rolleyes:

Christ on a yamaha - I haven't heard this one before. All the ingredints for a crash have been in place for years, but a combination of the medja, Brown/Blair, Opus Dei, and the VIs are keeping it at bay.

Keep the faith! :ph34r::ph34r::ph34r:

"Think what the media can do, these are the people who can determine what kind of body shape we find attractive! "

How are they doing this? Are they going round at night giving people brain transplants. Has it occurred to you that maybe they know what type of body shapes we find attractive?

I presume from this drivel that you are already a members of a number of cults, including that lunatic bunch that Tom Cruise hangs around with.

:o:o:ph34r::rolleyes:

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with hindsight, the end of 2004 did indeed seem to mark an 'end' of sorts.

Personally, the following 18 months of inactivity were a godsend to me, because I missed it at the time, in fact missed it by a good year and a half, and yet have still managed to get out 'at the top'.

Unless it doubles again next year, in which case I'll feel silly.

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If I had a column in the Mirror - for example - where I ramped, say, shares, that I then sold a few days later after their inevitable increase in value, I could be done for fraud or some other financial crime.

But manipulation/pressure from the newspapers/media couldn't possibly affect the value of property?

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neitherbullnorbear your naivety astounds me. For one so scathing you aren't very cynical!

Has it occurred to you that maybe they know what type of body shapes we find attractive?

Maybe you beleive that we all find skinny women and hairless men attractive inherently. However, I remember the 70's and also up until the 1920s curvy was the way! Skinny / hairless is only in vogue as food is cheap and it requires spending to depillate.

Anyway, if you don't think the media are capable of manipulating a market for their own ends then you may want to remove your head from your fundament!

For all intents and purposes the property market should have run out of steam around 2 years ago. It's current gravity defying levitating act is IMO based on property porn, media hype and a certain cut in interest rates last year.

At the end of the day I will be proved right, of that I have no doubt.

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neitherbullnorbear your naivety astounds me. For one so scathing you aren't very cynical!

Maybe you beleive that we all find skinny women and hairless men attractive inherently. However, I remember the 70's and also up until the 1920s curvy was the way! Skinny / hairless is only in vogue as food is cheap and it requires spending to depillate.

Anyway, if you don't think the media are capable of manipulating a market for their own ends then you may want to remove your head from your fundament!

For all intents and purposes the property market should have run out of steam around 2 years ago. It's current gravity defying levitating act is IMO based on property porn, media hype and a certain cut in interest rates last year.

At the end of the day I will be proved right, of that I have no doubt.

It's proving to be a very long day, of that I have no doubt. If you hold out til the end of this longest of days, then buy when 40-50% comes off the peak, you'll still be worse off than if you bought in, say, March 2005.

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The current state of the housing market is irrational. So you can't predict it's short term behaviour by rational analysis which is, for the most part, what happens here. You can predict the end result: ave house price = 3 x ave income, but not the path and timing of that transition.

Plus the lenders have not ordered in the rubber pants yet. Although I wonder how much they carry the risk these days as I gather they sell (some?) of it on as mortgage backed securities. So maybe the money dries up when the buyers of the debt (hedge funds et al?) reach for the leak free underwear.

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It's proving to be a very long day, of that I have no doubt. If you hold out til the end of this longest of days, then buy when 40-50% comes off the peak, you'll still be worse off than if you bought in, say, March 2005.

Yes but that would be longer than the days they have in Iceland in the summer!

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neitherbullnorbear your naivety astounds me. For one so scathing you aren't very cynical!

Maybe you beleive that we all find skinny women and hairless men attractive inherently. However, I remember the 70's and also up until the 1920s curvy was the way! Skinny / hairless is only in vogue as food is cheap and it requires spending to depillate.

Anyway, if you don't think the media are capable of manipulating a market for their own ends then you may want to remove your head from your fundament!

For all intents and purposes the property market should have run out of steam around 2 years ago. It's current gravity defying levitating act is IMO based on property porn, media hype and a certain cut in interest rates last year.

At the end of the day I will be proved right, of that I have no doubt.

I don't find hairless men attractive myself, what with being a red blooded hetrosexual man and all that. But, anyway, the point I was trying to make was not that the medja don't have a role to play, just that's it role, and the importance of it, are off-the scale hyped up on this board. No one holds a gun to your head and says watch Property Ladder (although Sarah Beeney's tits arguably have a similar affect).

The idea that the medja have staved off a property crash is, frankly, laughable. If you really beleive that, then I think you seriously need to consider visting a doctor.

I don't find hairless men attractive myself, what with being a red blooded hetrosexual man and all that. But, anyway, the point I was trying to make was not that the medja don't have a role to play, just that's it role, and the importance of it, are off-the scale hyped up on this board. No one holds a gun to your head and says watch Property Ladder (although Sarah Beeney's tits arguably have a similar affect).

The idea that the medja have staved off a property crash is, frankly, laughable. If you really beleive that, then I think you seriously need to consider visting a doctor.

To stretch the analogy a bit further, most men I know, and myself for that matter, find most "celebrity" type women too skinny. Posh Spice in particular makes me ill. If the medja were that powerful, we would all find Posh Spice types with ridicolous implants in breasts, lips etc attractive, as opposed to wanting to make you puke.

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I think you are underestimating the power of the media. If you think democaracy works and that people's perceptions are not almost entirely influenced by the media then fine. I however think they have an unhealthy influence over the way a) people vote and ) what governments have to do to keep them happy.

If this isn't the case then tell me how long a government could go against the media and who would win?

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with hindsight, the end of 2004 did indeed seem to mark an 'end' of sorts.

Personally, the following 18 months of inactivity were a godsend to me, because I missed it at the time, in fact missed it by a good year and a half, and yet have still managed to get out 'at the top'.

Unless it doubles again next year, in which case I'll feel silly.

PG I'm starting to like you - and believe me it isn't the avatar! :D

The VIs do have a lot to answer for but they took the baton from the tech stock crash imho - I don't think they originally caused the boom, any more than they'll be able to stop what's going to happen. Perhaps had it not been for the tech bubble we might have had a correction quite before 2004, seems to me. Anyone else remember looking on in wonder in 2000-2001? I'm not at this point saying that we can expect a return to those prices - this market is so foaming at the mouth that I'm thinking increasingly that there's no saying what it might do - but prices in 2000-2001 appeared at the time to be astronomical.

And surely it's perfectly reasonable to conjecture about what might have happened had things been otherwise and what factors have made things the way things are. It's interesting! Happy to be member of the minority cult of the rationally-minded. Much better than being a member of the un-/brain-washed masses who think that what goes up doesn't have to come down.

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I think you are underestimating the power of the media. If you think democaracy works and that people's perceptions are not almost entirely influenced by the media then fine. I however think they have an unhealthy influence over the way a) people vote and ) what governments have to do to keep them happy.

If this isn't the case then tell me how long a government could go against the media and who would win?

Most of the press are inherently Tory, including the big hitters like the Sun, Dail Mail, Times, Telegraph, News of the Screws, etc. The Tory party are in opposition. Those papers that are relatively favourable to New Labour jumped on the bandwagon when Blair and the New Labour project, following a few years of adaptng policy to slavishly follow what there focus groups told them, surged in popularity and the Tories hit rock bottom in the opinion polls.

There's also the slightly inconvenient fact that different parts of the medja represent different view points. There's also the inconvineint fact that even when the Sun was solidly Tory, a good proportion of its largely working class readers voted labour.

I may not be able to spell cynism (but I'll have stab), but at least I can tell teh difference between cynism and lazy conspiracy theory-type b*llox presented with no evidence what so ever.

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It's proving to be a very long day, of that I have no doubt. If you hold out til the end of this longest of days, then buy when 40-50% comes off the peak, you'll still be worse off than if you bought in, say, March 2005.

How does that work. Any figures?

Let's say these:

200K flat = 400K (all mortgage costs) over 30 years (assuming you don't lose your job etc)

5 years rent = 50K, 120K flat = 240K mortgage cost, total over 30 years = 290K.

A cool 110K better off - over 30 years, that's about 3.5K each year. That assumes a 40% drop, of course.

For a 30% drop: 200K flat = total 400K; 140K X 2 + 50K = 330K; 70K better off

For a 50% drop: 200K flat = total 400K; 100K X 2 + 50K = 250K; 150K better off

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.

Plus the lenders have not ordered in the rubber pants yet. Although I wonder how much they carry the risk these days as I gather they sell (some?) of it on as mortgage backed securities. So maybe the money dries up when the buyers of the debt (hedge funds et al?) reach for the leak free underwear.

correct. some way tp go before they wee themselves. give it a couple of years.

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The media have an influence on certain things, maybe they can make people believe certain things, but the Global economy is far more powerful.

Okay the media can influence who you vote for, how much you spend on a house, but in the long term a correction of some sorts will happen, whatever the media says.

Also things you read in the media are already old news.

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How does that work. Any figures?

Let's say these:

200K flat = 400K (all mortgage costs) over 30 years (assuming you don't lose your job etc)

5 years rent = 50K, 120K flat = 240K mortgage cost, total over 30 years = 290K.

A cool 110K better off - over 30 years, that's about 3.5K each year. That assumes a 40% drop, of course.

For a 30% drop: 200K flat = total 400K; 140K X 2 + 50K = 330K; 70K better off

For a 50% drop: 200K flat = total 400K; 100K X 2 + 50K = 250K; 150K better off

OK, sorry, I just picked some figures out of the ether from the more extreme ends of what has been quoted on here over time without working anything out. Point I'm trying to make is, the time waiting for this crash is now coming up on close to five years for some people, and the predictions are now beginning to stretch even further into the future. Come 2020 when everyone cries 'A-Ha!!', it'll feel a little pyrrhic.

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Incidentally, didn't newspapers and TV exist back in 1989/1990?

I don't remember there being the profusion of Kirstie Allsops, Sarah Beeneys et al that we've suffered in recent years in the late 80s early 90s.

Convincing a nation that asset price inflation is good for all is one of the biggest con-tricks ever performed in a modern economy. The banks can't wait for the other half of the housing stock to turn over at these inflated prices. But they won't of course.

JY

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I don't remember there being the profusion of Kirstie Allsops, Sarah Beeneys et al that we've suffered in recent years in the late 80s early 90s.

Convincing a nation that asset price inflation is good for all is one of the biggest con-tricks ever performed in a modern economy. The banks can't wait for the other half of the housing stock to turn over at these inflated prices. But they won't of course.

JY

At the end of the day, teh medja is just noise. A tiny imapct, but by are, at the end of the day, pandering to people's obsession with their little nests.

The idea that the medja have put an end to industry cycles is simply silly.

At the end of teh day, its just yields. ;)

Sorry for using "at the end of the day" three times there. At the end of the day, it is nearly the end of the day - and the working week for that matter. ;)B):rolleyes:

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At the end of the day, teh medja is just noise. A tiny imapct, but by are, at the end of the day, pandering to people's obsession with their little nests.

The idea that the medja have put an end to industry cycles is simply silly.

At the end of teh day, its just yields. ;)

Sorry for using "at the end of the day" three times there. At the end of the day, it is nearly the end of the day - and the working week for that matter. ;)B):rolleyes:

TV - tiny impact? I don't think so. And the newspapers aren't known as the Fourth estate because they lack influence.

Oh, so you do think property valuation is just about yield then?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...amp;st=15

JY

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TV - tiny impact? I don't think so. And the newspapers aren't known as the Fourth estate because they lack influence.

Oh, so you do think property valuation is just about yield then?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...amp;st=15

JY

The "just about yield" was a joke about your HPC name for Christ Sakes! :o

As for all this medja power, I haven't seen any evidence, only cliches. As I've said, in teh hey day of the Tory Party, a large proportion of Sun readers voted Labour. The medja didn't manage to stop the crash of 1990. And when we had the wobble of 2004, I can remember plenty of headlines and billboards talking about a fall in house prices.

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The "just about yield" was a joke about your HPC name for Christ Sakes! :o

As for all this medja power, I haven't seen any evidence, only cliches. As I've said, in teh hey day of the Tory Party, a large proportion of Sun readers voted Labour. The medja didn't manage to stop the crash of 1990. And when we had the wobble of 2004, I can remember plenty of headlines and billboards talking about a fall in house prices.

:lol::lol::lol:

Follow the link for the context of my question:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...amp;st=15

JY

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:lol::lol::lol:

Follow the link for the context of my question:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...amp;st=15

JY

I'm not quite sure what your question was, but if its the Economist article post, perhaps I could take the liberty of throwing the question back at you "why is price:incomes ratio such a good indicator"? after all, its up to the proponents to suggest why this should be the holy grail that it is sometimes portrayed.

It' not so much its a bad tool, its just not a great one - as the last five years have shown. It doesn't take into account the various factors that i've listed, or the fact that property is almost certainly a luxury good, or the fact that, or the possibility that the high inflation/IR environment of the 70s/80s may (just may, mind you) have been an aberation. Indeed, on long term historical basis, they definetely were (teh BoE has figures going back to the early 1700s, I seem to recall).

So, yes, i thought teh Economist article was simplistic. They have been using this rather simple formula for some time now, but are noticeably more cautious on its merits.

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Most of the press are inherently Tory, including the big hitters like the Sun, Dail Mail, Times, Telegraph, News of the Screws, etc.

So why do they help ramp up "Gordens Miracle Economy"?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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