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General Election In 12 Months Time?

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Just been thinking today about Blair's announcement today about him stepping down in the next 12 months or so. Assuming power passes smoothly from the Great Leader to the Dear Leader like it's supposed to I can't help wondering whether Gordon Brown might not be tempted to call a snap general election shortly after he comes to power.

The reasons, basically, are this.

1. Labor’s lead in the poles is somewhere between slim and none. Blair's departure should hopefully put, at least temporarily, a bit of feel good back into Labour supporters. There's not going to be a tremendous amount for them to get excited about over the next few years, and after Gordon's been in power for a bit there's probably going to be a bit of a feeling that he's more of the same only worse. Why not ride that wave of (potential) popularity that could come from the fact that he's simply not Blair?

2. Calling a general election helps legitimise Brown's position as PM as he can say he's won a general election.

3. Perhaps most important of all, at least in the context of this website: In my opinion, there's a year, perhaps 2 more years of borrowing and HPI that can be wrung out of the British economy and then that's it. People will simply be unable to borrow any more money. All Brown has to do is keep the whole thing going until he becomes PM and then it can finally come crashing down. If he's lucky, and has good PR then he might be able to blame the whole thing on Ed Balls/the US economy/Osama Bin Laden/the world cup and then has 5 years to engineer some kind of sucker's rally in a falling market in time for the next general election.

So what does the forum think? On the money, or less truth in it than a Channel 4 property program?

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Just been thinking today about Blair's announcement today about him stepping down in the next 12 months or so. Assuming power passes smoothly from the Great Leader to the Dear Leader like it's supposed to I can't help wondering whether Gordon Brown might not be tempted to call a snap general election shortly after he comes to power.

The reasons, basically, are this.

1. Labor’s lead in the poles is somewhere between slim and none. Blair's departure should hopefully put, at least temporarily, a bit of feel good back into Labour supporters. There's not going to be a tremendous amount for them to get excited about over the next few years, and after Gordon's been in power for a bit there's probably going to be a bit of a feeling that he's more of the same only worse. Why not ride that wave of (potential) popularity that could come from the fact that he's simply not Blair?

2. Calling a general election helps legitimise Brown's position as PM as he can say he's won a general election.

3. Perhaps most important of all, at least in the context of this website: In my opinion, there's a year, perhaps 2 more years of borrowing and HPI that can be wrung out of the British economy and then that's it. People will simply be unable to borrow any more money. All Brown has to do is keep the whole thing going until he becomes PM and then it can finally come crashing down. If he's lucky, and has good PR then he might be able to blame the whole thing on Ed Balls/the US economy/Osama Bin Laden/the world cup and then has 5 years to engineer some kind of sucker's rally in a falling market in time for the next general election.

So what does the forum think? On the money, or less truth in it than a Channel 4 property program?

My computer says erm...No.

I think the GB will have a fight on his hands - its that PM's patinum plated pension thats at stake - even if you are PM for a day.

I think that everyone who has a chance will give standing for PM a go as they all know that Labour will not get re-elected within their lifetime when the ecoromic mirage is rumbled.

HAL

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My computer says erm...No.

I think the GB will have a fight on his hands - its that PM's patinum plated pension thats at stake - even if you are PM for a day.

I think that everyone who has a chance will give standing for PM a go as they all know that Labour will not get re-elected within their lifetime when the ecoromic mirage is rumbled.

HAL

But that's kind of my point. Why not call a general election before any kind of crash to give himself 5 years' breathing space? Bear in mind Labour managed to get re-elected not much more than a year ago and that was with Phoney Tony at the helm. With him gone anything's possible.

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But that's kind of my point. Why not call a general election before any kind of crash to give himself 5 years' breathing space? Bear in mind Labour managed to get re-elected not much more than a year ago and that was with Phoney Tony at the helm. With him gone anything's possible.

Cause they will lose even sooner and they know that.

Still anything is possible in this mad bad world.

HAL

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They'll still be dealing with the aftermath of the disaster of the Scottish parliamentary elections, and local elections, so I doubt very much that they'll be tempted to go to the polls until they have to.

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But that's kind of my point. Why not call a general election before any kind of crash to give himself 5 years' breathing space? Bear in mind Labour managed to get re-elected not much more than a year ago and that was with Phoney Tony at the helm. With him gone anything's possible.

Phoney Tony never made their house price fall though. He only invaded Iraq and killed loads of people. I am nicking someone elses quote from here, but people only talk about caring about Iraq (they might actually care, but it doesn't really effect them), they REALLY care about the £££ in their pocket, their HP and their jobs. GB will struggle.

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Tone isn't going to jack it in until there are no options left- he's turned into Maggie and won't leave until they prise his fingers off the door at No 10 and change the locks.

Gordo looks gutless and indecisive in all this- if he had any balls he'd knife Blair in the back and get it over with- he's going to have to do it at some point. I'm starting to wonder if Tony hasn't noticed the massive housing bubble just about to go pop and is dragging things on in the hope of fecking Gordons chances good and proper- if Gordon doesn't strike soon he'll be knackered.

Personally I have to laugh when the press hype Brown as the next best thing- he might be the No 1 choice for labour but I don't see him being that popular with the voters.

I wouldn't vote for Brown as PM as I think he's just as useless and spin prone and Blair. I also don't think he's the safe pair of financial hands he's made out to be.

As an English voter he's not very appealing either- the cabinet is stuffed with folks from north of the border which wouldn't be a problem if it weren't for the Scottish Parliament from which English views are barred. Bit of a double standard.

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The english voters do NOT like GB. It is a media myth from polls they design to give the results they want to hear.

Noone believes he has has put more ££ in their pocket. He is smug, the worst kind of close minded Scottish authoritarian (I am a Scot) who is even less close to understanding the public perception than Blair.

I still don't think the public hate Blair. He has charisma which is a priceless commodity - the public does not object to Iraq as much as the NuLab press would have you believe - read the polls. The "lefty liberal" media does hate him, because they do not (as ever) want to see the real problems we are facing in the world. GB has been bad for the people and worst of all for the people Labour is meant to represent. Gap between rich and poor, social issues, health etc all result from Treasury incompetence. Who would have thought a Labour govt could be hostage to fortune of the housing market.

I believe he does not have the guts to call a general election. He is the worst sort of coward - the type who sit back and never front up with their real intentions. Failure is his fear but he has not the courage to demand power or ask the public for it (he doesn;t know how to).

I stick by my view that he will be the greatest nearly man in British political history. There will be many books written about him because of it. He may call an election on the advice of his team but prospect of losing it will stop him.

I think he is the worst kind of politician. You cannot tell me the chancellor was unaware of the labour party fund raising ing issues and all that.

Edited by Tempest

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The english voters do NOT like GB. It is a media myth from polls they design to give the results they want to hear.

Noone believes he has has put more ££ in their pocket. He is smug, the worst kind of close minded Scottish authoritarian (I am a Scot) who is even less close to understanding the public perception than Blair.

I still don't think the public hate Blair. He has charisma which is a priceless commodity - the public does not object to Iraq as much as the NuLab press would have you believe - read the polls. The "lefty liberal" media does hate him, because they do not (as ever) want to see the real problems we are facing in the world. GB has been bad for the people and worst of all for the people Labour is meant to represent. Gap between rich and poor, social issues, health etc all result from Treasury incompetence. Who would have thought a Labour govt could be hostage to fortune of the housing market.

I believe he does not have the guts to call a general election. He is the worst sort of coward - the type who sit back and never front up with their real intentions. Failure is his fear but he has not the courage to demand power or ask the public for it (he doesn;t know how to).

I stick by my view that he will be the greatest nearly man in British political history. There will be many books written about him because of it. He may call an election on the advice of his team but prospect of losing it will stop him.

I think he is the worst kind of politician. You cannot tell me the chancellor was unaware of the labour party fund raising ing issues and all that.

Agreed 100%. The Labour party are mad. Blair was the only reason they beat the Conservatives. Without him they would not have got in to power despite the shambles the Conservative Government had become. Now they're about to sacrifice him for Brown.

Brown is ugly, lacks presentational skill, is devoid of any charisma and is far more distant from the electorate and on the verge of having the finger pointed at him as the economy goes astray.

If the Labour Party genuinely believe he is a better hope for them than Blair I think they're mistaken. I very much doubt he'd have the courage to call an election: Cameron is the next Blair. Now more than ever it's partly about celebrity and presentation, not policy. Cameron wins hands down.

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IMHO,they should be required to hold a general election.

Whatever happens this is the beginning of the end for Nu Labour, but they just can't see it.

Gordon Brown could not win a general election, Tony is still the only viable leader for Labour, he's still the best of a very bad bunch.

I just hope he stays long enough for GB's miracle economy to fall apart.

But the more interesting question for me is what poor mug will take on the Chancellors job ??

Talk about poisoned chalice !!

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There's only one thing Gordon Brown fears, thats becoming prime minister via a labour leadership contest and then immediately losing a snap general election. He is a coward - the ignominy of that possibility (probablility in my view) which would last for his lifetime and would humiliate him forever more would be unbearable. He will not risk it. He will take the coward's route and try and find a sneaky way through and wait until 2009.

Either way he is doomed.

Edited by Tempest

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I seriously couldn't give a flying fck about Blair. A bigger news story to me is that 17 British servicemen have lost their lives in the last week or so in various sh1tholes around the world.

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I seriously couldn't give a flying fck about Blair. A bigger news story to me is that 17 British servicemen have lost their lives in the last week or so in various sh1tholes around the world.

This is the really important stuff- not a couple of delusional politicians squabbling over who "drives".

This is Blairs legacy and he can say and do what he likes- he'll always be remembered at the PM who lied to take us to a war which has caused misery and death to so many.

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I kind of got the feeling Blair wanted to hang on until people had forgotten about Iraq so that it did not become his legacy.

But I have a feeling it might just come up again at the Party Conference.

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They should call a general election.

Conservatives will get into power.

House Prices will crash, there will be a recession.

Next general election Labour will get back in based on the fact that the conservatives caused a recession in the UK.

Maybe we should ask John Major if he wants his old job back?

Edited by Adrian Allen

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They should call a general election.

Conservatives will get into power.

House Prices will crash, there will be a recession.

Next general election Labour will get back in based on the fact that the conservatives caused a recession in the UK.

Maybe we should ask John Major if he wants his old job back?

I've been thinking this for a while. It would be a disaster for the Conservatives to get in then a recession happens, they would be tarred with it for years! This is why Cameron should be critising the poor running of the economy, e.g. making comments about public and private debt, manufacturing etc...

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I've been thinking this for a while. It would be a disaster for the Conservatives to get in then a recession happens, they would be tarred with it for years! This is why Cameron should be critising the poor running of the economy, e.g. making comments about public and private debt, manufacturing etc...

I agree, Cameron will be in a strong position soon as the economy starts to crumble knowing damn well that GB is unlikely to call an election, but will restrain enough not to 'table a vote of no confidence in the governement' (as they did with Maggie) and instead he will want to ride the storm to squeeze as much out of it as possible - though the way its heading I don't think he will have to do much :lol:

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Just been thinking today about Blair's announcement today about him stepping down in the next 12 months or so. Assuming power passes smoothly from the Great Leader to the Dear Leader like it's supposed to I can't help wondering whether Gordon Brown might not be tempted to call a snap general election shortly after he comes to power.

The reasons, basically, are this.

1. Labor’s lead in the poles is somewhere between slim and none.

Er what lead is that? - they've been lagging Tories for 6 months now. Cameron is now over 40% - enough for a Tory majority

Blair's departure should hopefully put, at least temporarily, a bit of feel good back into Labour supporters. There's not going to be a tremendous amount for them to get excited about over the next few years, and after Gordon's been in power for a bit there's probably going to be a bit of a feeling that he's more of the same only worse. Why not ride that wave of (potential) popularity that could come from the fact that he's simply not Blair?

Today's YouGov poll [their track record is better than others] show NuLabour no better with Brown as PM - in general electorate and amongst Labour voters

2. Calling a general election helps legitimise Brown's position as PM as he can say he's won a general election.

Yes but the man hasn't the gut's to risk it. He's has always been a total coward. Last few days bring this into perspective even more. If he had any leadrship qualities, he would have Blair out the door already by resigning as Chancellor. IMO what's stopping him resigning, is that he can't risk anyone else in the job, as any 'straight' guy Blair put in his place would blow the cover on how Brown and Balls have been cooking the UK's books, and his reputation would be pubicly destroyed]

3. Perhaps most important of all, at least in the context of this website: In my opinion, there's a year, perhaps 2 more years of borrowing and HPI that can be wrung out of the British economy and then that's it. People will simply be unable to borrow any more money. All Brown has to do is keep the whole thing going until he becomes PM and then it can finally come crashing down. If he's lucky, and has good PR then he might be able to blame the whole thing on Ed Balls/the US economy/Osama Bin Laden/the world cup and then has 5 years to engineer some kind of sucker's rally in a falling market in time for the next general election.

Brown [if he gets the job] will need a boost. It's unlikely IMO that he will be able to pull of anything on the Foriegn Policy front [hes too much of an Atlantacist to risk pulling out of Iraq]. He can't really do anything new on home policy front as hes been running home affairs for last 9 years. My guess is he'll go for the economic "feelgood factor", by getting Ed Balls in as Chancellor. Balls will then make sure that MPC slash rates to keep the HPI party going

So what does the forum think? On the money, or less truth in it than a Channel 4 property program?

...Labour will get back in based on the fact that the conservatives caused a recession in the UK.

Wouldn't count on it. Parties can get voted back in, even after a recession. Both Major 92 and Thatcher 82 did it.

Deep down, I think people know how f*cked they really are financially. As long as Tories make clear that the road will be tough, they should be able to take the country with them

Edited by jp1

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I still don't think the public hate Blair. He has charisma which is a priceless commodity - the public does not object to Iraq as much as the NuLab press would have you believe - read the polls. The "lefty liberal" media does hate him, because they do not (as ever) want to see the real problems we are facing in the world. GB has been bad for the people and worst of all for the people Labour is meant to represent. Gap between rich and poor, social issues, health etc all result from Treasury incompetence. Who would have thought a Labour govt could be hostage to fortune of the housing market.

I totally agree with all of this. Iraq is certainly not the driver of most of the discontent with NuLabour. I hear guys at work now, homeowners with good jobs, complaining that GB is going to be bad. Because he is the chancellor that is hurting their pockets. Most of the complaint about NuLabour appears to me to be about tax, immigration, housing, authoritarianism and spin. This didn't really exist much in the mainstream media just one year ago.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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