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Xurbia

Yet Another Gloomy Article From The States

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Fascinating article. Good find.

I really liked the information about falling profits in the associated housing businesses such as construction, home furnishing, and cookware.

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Fascinating article. Good find.

I really liked the information about falling profits in the associated housing businesses such as construction, home furnishing, and cookware.

I'm surprised how quickly the Americans say it's over. Such contrast with the UK and the spin, spin, spin.

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The uber-Bull, Dave Lereah, chief EA in the US is starting to crack:

http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=360281

"This is a normal pattern during a market correction, but home prices
should
return to positive territory within a few months and annual appreciation will be slower than historic norms," Lereah said. "Keep in mind that
over time
, home prices rise at the rate of inflation plus one-to-two percentage points -- buyers in most of the country who plan to stay in their home for a
normal period
of homeownership can pretty well bank on those historic averages, but people who purchased last year with the intent of flipping are likely to get burned."

(italics mine)

He has gone from "soft landing" to people getting burned if they bought within the last year. :D

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This is housepricecrash.co.uk Any article that talks of a hous price crash is therefore not gloomy, any that talks of HPI is.

Um....... so :lol: not :angry: ? Got it! :D

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"What sold in a weekend here last year is taking months to unload. And increasingly nervous home sellers are slashing prices to get rid of properties before their value sinks even further. One buyer recently threatened to walk away from a signed contract on a $1.6-million house unless the seller took $100,000 off the price to reflect the drop in value since the deal was struck. The seller quickly buckled, fearing the house might be worth even less if put back on the market today.

"Look how fast prices were going up. The same thing is happening on the way down," observed Ms. Gaus, who's been selling homes in Potomac for 16 years.

"It's a very tough market.""

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cf...mp;ItemID=10890

Nice find again Xurbia....

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Nice find again Xurbia....

...my pleasure!

I like the sentiment changes in America. It really is just like the dotcom bust. History repeats itself. The dam is breaking.

I really do predict similar press releases about the UK and Ireland. The more people deny it the more desperation I detect.

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I'm surprised how quickly the Americans say it's over. Such contrast with the UK and the spin, spin, spin.

Amazingly the yanks have always been more honest over property news than the UK who have the " Sweep it under the carpet attitude to housing " i reckon the yanks quickly admit that the housing game is over so they can try to get back to normal whilst the UK just can't admit it and just carry on digger a bigger hole for themselves .

Edited by grey shark

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Amazingly the yanks have always been more honest over property news than the UK who have the " Sweep it under the carpet attitude to housing " i reckon the yanks quickly admit that the housing game is over so they can try to get back to normal whilst the UK just can't admit it and just carry on digger a bigger hole for themselves .

With Bush in charge they couldn't sweep a lot more under their carpet!

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Heavy gloom and doom from the Wall Street JOurnal, now the leading Bear newspaper in the US. Pity the FT couldn't be alittle more realistic with their reports:

http://www.realestatejournal.com/indinvest...060908-wsj.html

The Wall Street Journal

Home Builders See Weak Results

As the Housing Market Slows

From The Wall Street Journal Online
Evidence mounted that the
housing slowdown is in full force, with builders delivering gloomy news and a real-estate group projecting a significant drop in sales of new and existing homes and a sharp deceleration in price appreciation.
New home sales this year are expected to fall 16.1% to 1.08 million and existing home sales to dip 7.6% to 6.54 million, as the market works through an inventory backlog, according to the National Association of Realtors. NAR's latest projections released Thursday also have housing starts dropping 9.6% to 1.87 million.

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Heavy gloom and doom from the Wall Street JOurnal, now the leading Bear newspaper in the US. Pity the FT couldn't be alittle more realistic with their reports:

http://www.realestatejournal.com/indinvest...060908-wsj.html

The Wall Street Journal

Home Builders See Weak Results

As the Housing Market Slows

From The Wall Street Journal Online
Evidence mounted that the
housing slowdown is in full force, with builders delivering gloomy news and a real-estate group projecting a significant drop in sales of new and existing homes and a sharp deceleration in price appreciation.
New home sales this year are expected to fall 16.1% to 1.08 million and existing home sales to dip 7.6% to 6.54 million, as the market works through an inventory backlog, according to the National Association of Realtors. NAR's latest projections released Thursday also have housing starts dropping 9.6% to 1.87 million.

"Under these conditions, we'll probably see prices dip temporarily below year-ago levels as the market works through a build up in housing inventory," he added. The cooling housing market means investors who purchased homes last year intending to sell them shortly thereafter could face losses.

I don't know about the whole USA but it seems the exit costs from property are at least 5%. A realtor I spoke to reckons you need to be in the market at least two years in order to make a proft. With short-term profit far from certain it's inevitable there's going to be trouble.

One year ago I spoke with a couple from California. I simply asked if they were worried about a down-turn in the market. They believed it was impossible for property prices to decline. It seems that so few people are interested in the economic backdrop when they are buying houses. It suddenly dawns on people that the future might not be so certain after all - incredibly naive really.

There are definitely 'micro economies' that haven't been hit yet e.g Washington State. Is this normal Realist Bear? I'm assuming some States will slow over a couple of years taking their lead from California, Florida etc.?

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"Recession Could Support USD

Sat, 09 Sep 2006 09:29:18 GMT

....• The US economy is entering a serious slowdown phase. It is still not a foregone conclusion that the US economy will go into a recession. However, we believe a serious economic slowdown is imminent, possibly happening in the next 3-6 months. As shown in the chart below, our long leading recession warning is clearly indicating a recession. The yellow shaded areas indicate the official recession periods as decided by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The indicator has historically had a very good track record predicting recessions.

• US economic growth measured by GDP is relatively sound as last week’s release of 2Q GDP showed. Not indicating any sharp slowdown in the US economic growth, the GDP revisions take GDP up to 2.9% from 2.5% q/q and 3.6% y/y. The early estimate for Q3 is close to 3%. This may be too optimistic as our leading index shows a strong slowdown and even an outright recession in the next 3-6 months. We put the odds of a recession as high as 80%. The reason why the risk may not be higher is quite substantial tax cuts that are still stimulating the US economy....."

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-st...2006-09-09.html

I always enjoy hearing from the guys who have to make their money calling the market right, rather than the VI's of one sort or another.

Tks again Xurbia.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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