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Us House Price Slump News Continues...

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I will tell you that I see anecdotal evidence that the market in the NE is very soft. I just had a friend of mine who was sadly relocated to New Jersey (the toxic waste capital of the U.S.) and he backbid on a house by $75,000 (listing price was $650,000 and he bid $575,000) fully expecting to get turned away. And the sellers hit the bid!

Of course, now he's nervous that he bought into a falling market, which I believe he has. :o

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Sounds like it would be an interesting read for some possible indicators

- However in order to sell a book it has to sound dynamic. If he'd written 'the inexorably gradual growing economy of 2010' it wouldn't sell!

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

"...``The housing bubble is breaking pretty hard here,'' said Michael Bugno, president of equity strategies at Chicago Futures Group. ``Investors are going to get pretty nervous about the economy. It's not going to be market friendly.''...

...The market extended declines sparked yesterday by concern that inflation is accelerating. An unexpected jump in labor costs revived speculation that the Fed may need to raise interest rates to curb higher prices...."

Not looking too good then?

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Soon Bloomberg won't be just talking about the US market going into freefall ..........oh no ........it will be the UK housing market going down , hopefully by xmas what a xmas present that would be , bring it on :)

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Soon Bloomberg won't be just talking about the US market going into freefall ..........oh no ........it will be the UK housing market going down , hopefully by xmas what a xmas present that would be , bring it on :)

But isn't it the case that the UK market still has a shortage of supply? I believe this is a key reason why we won't see the price drops that the Yanks are currently experiencing. :(

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But isn't it the case that the UK market still has a shortage of supply? I believe this is a key reason why we won't see the price drops that the Yanks are currently experiencing. :(

Negative equity, unemployment, emmigration, unaffordability will strangle the market. Once the FTBs have gone altogether the market locks up and crashes. Professional BTL is over due to yields and risk remving a huge sector of demand. Happens everytime.

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Negative equity, unemployment, emmigration, unaffordability will strangle the market. Once the FTBs have gone altogether the market locks up and crashes. Professional BTL is over due to yields and risk remving a huge sector of demand. Happens everytime.

Marina says new BTLs are abundant. You say it's over.

One of you must be wrong I guess.

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Negative equity, unemployment, emmigration, unaffordability will strangle the market. Once the FTBs have gone altogether the market locks up and crashes. Professional BTL is over due to yields and risk remving a huge sector of demand. Happens everytime.

Thanks for your comments RB.

I mostly ;) agree with you and would love to believe that you forecast is accurate. I just believe that lack of supply here will prevent a crash and that we'll see a leveling off / slight decline in prices.

However, this cooldown will hopefully knock some sense into some vendors so they realise that their property isn't the money tree they've all been led to believe. Hence, more realistic asking prices.

Just call me a doubting Thomas. ;)

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Thanks for your comments RB.

I mostly ;) agree with you and would love to believe that you forecast is accurate. I just believe that lack of supply here will prevent a crash and that we'll see a leveling off / slight decline in prices.

However, this cooldown will hopefully knock some sense into some vendors so they realise that their property isn't the money tree they've all been led to believe. Hence, more realistic asking prices.

Just call me a doubting Thomas. ;)

BTL yields are already at a 5 year low. When the economy turns down further unemployment will cripple the most vulnerable BTLers who will be unable to pass on higher costs due to the "blood out of the stone" problem. BTLers who are overgeared will have to sell and that is why, IMO, we are seeing an extraordinary number of properties around my area with "no upward chain" that appear to be mostly lower end stuff typical for the mass BTL market.

Panic will be another reason as the amateurs who bought in during the last couple of years start to see a little negative equity and the path to unlimited riches for nothing begin to get a little doubtful.

We are bound to see a further IR hike this side of the Winter and sentiment, already at a record low according to Nationwide, will get worse from here on in.

I would not be surprised to see a huge amount of BTL activity starting around November as the amateurs rush to get their properties up for sale with "no upward chain." This could well turn into "the trigger" for the overall market to correct itself and move into alignment with earnings over the course of the next 3-5 years.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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