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Buffer Bear

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They can only raise IR a couple of more times or they'll crash the housing market - they'll spread them out if anything...

Expect immigration to increase (surpress wages to control inflation) and a redefinition of CPI (to hide real inflation)

Edited by dnd

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Big Mistake, Huge Mistake

so inflation was 20% above target so they hold rates. Knobs!! Bet if it was 20% below they'd cut!

Looking forward to seeing how the voting went!

Edited by OzzMosiz

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Anyone suprised? I am not but look forward to October.

No not very surprised. <_<

Hey, I like your signature Buffer Bear.

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Merv remaining vigilante it seems. :blink:

Bottom line here seem that the economy is too weak to hike as the FTSE seems to be saying today. A hike will push us into recession sooner rather than later. Same reason for Ben holding--a long lead in time for the hikes to bite and they are biting hard in the US right now.

Perhaps Merv does not believe the VI HPI ramping?

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,874.40

Trade Time: 12:09PM

Change: Down 54.90 (0.93%)

Prev Close: 5,929.30

Open: 5,929.30

Day's Range: 5,863.00 - 5,929.30

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

Edited by Realistbear

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Probably November.

And then watch YOY consumer Christmas spending go through the floor, cos all those cash-strapped sheeple will have no money left after their mortgage, gas, council tax and petrol bills are paid.

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And then watch YOY consumer Christmas spending go through the floor, cos all those cash-strapped sheeple will have no money left after their mortgage, gas, council tax and petrol bills are paid.

IMO the recession from the US will be hitting us just as winter sets in.

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Oh well. Maybe next month.

No chance!. Browns new doves will have joined, and be voting for cuts.

Brown will be keeping a strong handle on the MPC now. He needs to firstly get into No10, then create a "feelgood factor" for his honeymoon period to seek his "mandate" and win :lol: a general Election against Cameron. HPI is his only tool.

Expect rate cuts soon, based on a revised inflation measure and requisite new target

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the real problem is that these bozos think they can control it all.

In actuality, the economy NEEDS a recession of some type so the next cycle can begin.

Trying to 'smooth it all out' won't work.

Meaning that ultimately, these attempt to suppress the natural cycle will actually lead to a FAR BIGGER bust than they could have 'engineered' now.

Ho hum.

Good time to hold cash, I'd say.

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And then watch YOY consumer Christmas spending go through the floor, cos all those cash-strapped sheeple will have no money left after their mortgage, gas, council tax and petrol bills are paid.

Agreed. If the BoE has any credibility left it must pull on the reins of the consumer spending binge.

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Merv remaining vigilante it seems. :blink:

A humble civil servant by day, caped crusader by night, Chair-man had had enough of the spinning scumbags who now ran Gotham. Ever since his parents had been murdered by runaway inflation, he knew he had to take his revenge...

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Agreed. If the BoE has any credibility left it must pull on the reins of the consumer spending binge.

They've tried over the years to supress your wages through immigration to curb real inflation

That didn't work - you just borrowed to plug the gap between your static wages and rising prices (ie real inflation) - plus immigration is becoming a political issue because of the numbers

That's why they have started to increase IR - to try and curb your borrowing - ie attack the problem from the other end

Problem is that they can only do a couple of small increments - it'll crash the housing market if they raise them any higher

If the next couple of IR increments don't curb inflation then expect them to back off - increase immigration (to curb wages further and slow inflation) and CPI 'adjustment' to hide inflation...

Edited by dnd

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No not very surprised. <_<

Hey, I like your signature Buffer Bear.

Thanks. :)

And then watch YOY consumer Christmas spending go through the floor, cos all those cash-strapped sheeple will have no money left after their mortgage, gas, council tax and petrol bills are paid.

That's why I believe the next hike is October. Give the sheeple time to get over the shock befiore Xmas.

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the real problem is that these bozos think they can control it all...

...these attempt to suppress the natural cycle will actually lead to a FAR BIGGER bust than they could have 'engineered' now.

Exactly.

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Crash the housing market so all the FTBer hoarders can release their saved cash.

Anyone who bought at peak shouldn't moan. They were buying somewhere to live!

BTLers will cash out, but make little gains

Housing problem solved :lol:

note: this was tongue in cheek - well a little bit

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Big Mistake, Huge Mistake

Yep the party carries on. HPC posponed indefinitely.

BTLetters across the nation breathe a sigh of relief and immediately add to their portfolio thereby sustaining the market and pricing more would-be FTBs out of the market.

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Yep the party carries on. HPC posponed indefinitely.

BTLetters across the nation breathe a sigh of relief and immediately add to their portfolio thereby sustaining the market and pricing more would-be FTBs out of the market.

They can't hide real inflation forever...

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Meaning that ultimately, these attempt to suppress the natural cycle will actually lead to a FAR BIGGER bust than they could have 'engineered' now.

God it's almost Pavlovian! The economy is not a washing machine. There are no cycles. Economies change. Markets change.

Like, for example, the housing market. It has changed. Prices used to be set by what FTBs could pay. Now they are set by what BTLs are willing to pay.

So, property is much more expensive - everywhere in the country - than it used to be. Because the fundamentals underpinning the market have changed.

If you are waiting for interest rates to go up and 'complete the cycle' - well, how long are you prepared to wait? 10 years sound good? How about 20 years?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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