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"...So the fund explores two key risks, one on the demand side and one on the supply side. The demand side risk is familiar: a sharp US slowdown, probably triggered by a tottering housing market. The IMF already forecasts that the weaker housing outlook will slow even its baseline forecasts, but a nastier house price crash, surely a possibility, knocks another percentage point off the fund's growth forecasts.

It was with this prospect in mind that the Federal Reserve - sensibly, in the view of the IMF - stopped raising interest rates. Yet the second risk makes it very hard for the Fed, and other central bankers, to make the right decisions. That risk is of rising inflationary pressures as the world economy runs out of spare capacity and productivity growth slows down. There are distinct signs of this with high commodity prices, headline inflation above comfort levels and inflationary expectations rising too..."

"...The risks that the IMF is analysing can be summarised in a single word: stagflation. It may not happen and, even if it does, the IMF fears something much milder than the woeful experience of the seventies. That is not entirely comforting."

Yep, 'Stagflation' will be an increasingly popular and apt word.

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"...The risks that the IMF is analysing can be summarised in a single word: stagflation. It may not happen and, even if it does, the IMF fears something much milder than the woeful experience of the seventies. That is not entirely comforting."

Yep, 'Stagflation' will be an increasingly popular and apt word.

Not to worry. Just looks like "mini-stagflation"

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"stagflation. It may not happen and, even if it does, the IMF fears something much milder than the woeful experience of the seventies. That is not entirely comforting."

Not to worry. Just looks like "mini-stagflation"

As long as the IMF think it will be "mini-stagflation" if any thing we're allright then, thats for sure... :(

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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