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Todays Telegraph Business Section

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says all there is to say. this is about as mainstream as we are likely to get.

whos listening?

one wonders.

sorry no idea how to post said articule.

(i hopefull rely on thos more capable than meon these things, but read if you can.)

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Sentiment is extremely bearish and sentiment is a major driver of the economy:

The principal causes of people's gloom are very real. Worries about jobs, rising mortgage payments, fears over mounting violence in the Middle East and domestic terror plots are undermining our sense of well-being.
A BBC poll found that nearly half of us think this country is a worse place to live than it was 20 years ago. Issues such as crime, immigration, overcrowding and the high cost of living are a burden on our collective spirit.
With its dodgy accounting and false promises, the entire New Labour Project looks increasingly like a political version of Enron:
temporary prosperity
,
built on an illusion
.

The VI ramping about house prices continuing to soar may be having the opposite effect--people are sick of hearing about it because they can't spend the money and their kids have to borrow more to "get in." IMO, its over and we are just waiting for the crash to come and hopefully not be as big as some are now saying its going to be (see RBS article on today's posts and US "30 year" slowdown).

Edited by Realistbear

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Jeff Randall is one to talk about self approbation. I've never seen such a big egomanic as him! And he loves his red wine and cigars, thinking he's some big business guru - he's just a TV presenter with an ego.

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Jeff Randall is one to talk about self approbation. I've never seen such a big egomanic as him! And he loves his red wine and cigars, thinking he's some big business guru - he's just a TV presenter with an ego.

Who the hell is Jeff Randall? After the brilliant Bank of Scotland lecture piece, it was a bit of a shock to read this utter garbage. From feast to famine.

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Jeff Randall is one to talk about self approbation. I've never seen such a big egomanic as him! And he loves his red wine and cigars, thinking he's some big business guru - he's just a TV presenter with an ego.

upset you are

in denial you are

to move on down the path of happiness for you; is now acceptance.

Edited by debtfree

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the bit i liked the best.

on every road to a resession you pass a sign saying soft landing.

sorry this was from a different piece about the stock market, but a good line anyway.

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I thought it was plain speaking, if a little dramatic. In essence, he is correct.

It's something I've thought myself about Cameron - who would want to inherit the poison chalice?

Some think the "drama" is a form of spin but I am not so sure. <_<

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From the HPC to Iraq and the relationship between Blair and Brown, this article is the most damning critique of NuLabour I have seen in the mainstream press.

Bravo! :D:lol:

Very true. I haven't seen anything anywhere else that mentions so many issues. And Blair thinks if he does a farewell tour to display all he has done for us, we will all go flocking to heap praise on Our Great Leader? He was in Nottingham a while back and I am reliably informed that he had to leave Nottingham University via the back door. Even in the areas where he was doing talks and visits, everything was very carefully stage managed and choreographed.

I am trying to think back to a time when I have spoken to a single person (at least one who has an IQ that is in at least 3 digits and can string a sentance together), who has a single good thing to say about the man, his policies and what they mean for us. Not one person in a single boozer, business, small company or public sector organisation. At any point. Regardless of political persuasion.

I am literally staggered by the degree to which the man is out of touch with reality. Either that, or he is fully aware of what he is doing, which is infinitely more sinister. The fact that he will probably retire to a cushy lecture circuit that will make him millions, when he should currently be sat in Milosevic's old cell, makes my blood curdle. Then we get lumped with Crash Gordon, or heaven forbid, potentially the likes of David Miliband.

The most telling thing about the article though, and the one that really causes problems with regards to the futures of a lot of the posters on this forum, is how this is going to be fixed. It doesn't matter who replaces him, and to be fair, doesn't really matter a jot who wins the next election. This is going to take a decade or more to right itself, and that is if the right decisions start being made.

A year after I foolishly voted for this bunch of jokers in '97, I knew it was a mistake. I had no idea just those 8 short years ago, how much worse things would get.

Even worse, the credible political party to do something about it? Where?

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Even worse, the credible political party to do something about it? Where?

Yes, even more depressing than the current state of British politics is the thought of the next stage:

The Torys are emulating New Labour who themselves were emulating the Tories. So you have a party so confused it is effectively copying itself and trying to integrate a little 'greenery' into the mix to differentiate itself.

Labour are now unelectable for 20 years IMHO and until every member of the 'project' is safely out of the political arena I would not feel safe voting for them. I think the trades descriptions act should be invoked if they attempt to call themselves a 'socialist' party in future.

The Lib Dems are staggering, punch drunk, from one leadership crisis to another and also manage to unveil new contradictory policies on a quartley basis. They seem doomed to be the party of local council politics for many years to come.

What is stiking is how the hatred for Blair and NL cuts across the divide. People I know of every race and social class are not at all pleased with the direction the UK has taken, which begs the question: Who, other than NL themselves have actually benefited from the last 9 years?? :huh:

By drama, I mean positing deliberate "evil" motives for Blair and the like. It is very unlikely IMO that Blair's mental model of himself involves any underhanded or "wicked" explanations for what he is doing.

(That's always my problem with "angry" satirical comedians like R0ry Bremner. I think they really think that their targets, Labour or Conservative, are consciously up to no good. I doubt that is ever the case, except rarely.

Even the trolls here (apart from the chap who seems very troubled, who is really someone that needs everyone's love and care) all just see winding up forum members as a humorous wheeze, I'm sure. Very few people really look at their own behaviour frankly and then condemn themselves. I know I don't.

I think there was a documentary on Channel 4 sometime in 2002/2003 where various experts analysed Tony's behavior and decisions, concluding that he demonstrated many of the characteristcs of a a psychopath.

I now believe this to be the case.

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It is very unlikely IMO that Blair's mental model of himself involves any underhanded or "wicked" explanations for what he is doing.

That's always my problem with "angry" satirical comedians like R0ry Bremner. I think they really think that their targets, Labour or Conservative, are consciously up to no good. I doubt that is ever the case, except rarely. [Durch]

"Virtue is more to be feared than vice, because its excesses are not subject to the regulation of conscience" -- Adam Smith.

Edited by Jeff Ross

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Even worse, the credible political party to do something about it? Where?

Here's the bad news: there isn't one. Democracy has run its course in the UK and it's just a few decades of decline from here until the whole thing collapses... it's impossible for the required changes to happen in a democracy because the people who benefit from Enron government will vote against any party that tries to fix it.

At a minimum they'd probably have to start by sacking 80% of government employees: can't be done in a democracy where there are effectively more government employees than private (if you include people on the dole and people working on government contracts).

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This is perhaps the reason why more and more people have an urge to grab what they can, act selfish, disentangle themselves, get safe and protect their position.

Indeed. If there's no hope for the long term, the only sensible position is to grab what you can ready for the collapse.

I've just started reading a history book about the collapse of societies in the past, and the author's theory seems to be that government expands until its actions cost more than the benefit they provide, after which they soon collapse. I think NuLab has taken Britain well beyond that point now, pretty much every new law comes at huge costs with little to no benefit.

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I thought it was plain speaking, if a little dramatic. In essence, he is correct.

It's something I've thought myself about Cameron - who would want to inherit the poison chalice?

Well Maggie certainly took over at a time when the country was basically ruined.

I often wonder if should have just let the unions carry on until everyone in the country worked for the state - after all, it's what NuLabour are doing.

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I am literally staggered by the degree to which the man is out of touch with reality.

I think you need to be careful using language like that. I have observed that there are many opportunities to be 'stunned' but not so many to be 'staggered'.

There are, near me, a number of 'stunning' new housing developments offering 'stunning' opportunities to investors. I have had to stop my car several times outside one particular development and nurse 'stunned' investors who, faced with an opportunity of such 'stunnitude' are not sure whether to buy 1, 2 or the whole damn block.

There are also a considerable number of 'stunning' celebrities these days. Which is why I never attend film premieres.

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Maggie was a force of nature that knew what needed to be done.

And the force of government inertia defeated any real opportunity for change. She fixed some problems in the economic world (e.g. inefficient, expensive, subsidised nationalised industries), but did little to solve the problems in government, which have grown deeper ever since... until today, the government pretty much is the economy.

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What's the book? It sounds interesting.

'The Collapse of Complex Societies': it's an academic history book that's in the fourteenth printing, so I guess it must have something going for it :). Here's the Wikipedia article about the author: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter

I haven't got far yet, but I found this quote from a later part of the book on the web:

The hierarchy expands in size, complexity, and specialization; resource production focuses increasingly on sources of supply that are more difficult to acquire and process; agricultural labor intensifies; information processing and training requirements become less generalized; and most likely, an increased military apparatus is seen as the solution to these problems.

...And as marginal returns deteriorate, tax rates rise with less and less return to the local level. Irrigation systems go unattended, bridges and roads are not kept up, and the frontier is not adequately defended. The population, meanwhile, must contribute ever more of a shrinking productive base to support whatever projects the hierarchy is still able to accomplish.

Sounds an awful lot like America and Britain today.

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"collapse of complex societies"

once again , the site is more like "apocolypse watch" than HPC.

jeez.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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