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Hi

I'm not sure whether I'm a bull or a bear yet so pls bear with me.

I've been sweating over a HPC for about four years. This is after we sold our flat in Stoke Newington (that had already doubled in value) and swapped it (about £20K more) for a nice Victorian Terrace in East London with 3 large beds and 3 large receptions. At that time I felt an complete idiot for buying at the height of a boom so much so that we got a fixed mortgage at 5.5% for 5 years to cover the anticipated hike in interest rates. But to my complete amazement nothng happened and our new house has gone up by a further £50-£100K since.

We've a redemption on the mortgage with is around £6K and runs out in October 2007. As we recently downshifted and moved to Worcestershire where we now rent a house we've decided to let it out rather than pay the £6K; we're breaking even, which is good taking into account our large mortgage.

What we can't figure out is what, if any, artifical underpinning the 2012 games will have on our prices. Interestingly in my area a lot of the houses have all been taken off the market I presume in anticipation for getting big bucks 2 or 3 years before the games when the stadium starts getting built and people remember that the games are actually taking place.

One minute I'm urgent to sell NOW and screw the redemption, popping the 50% equity that we have in the bank and wait for prices to drop and buy here in Worcestershire. On the other hand I just want to keep my pretty victorian house that's in East London, 30 mins from the City, with woods and large open green spaces at the end of the road, near the Olympics and which is 90% cheaper than something similar in - say - Fulham. It'll make a nice pension and give us the option of living in London again should we ever want to (which at the moment is about a far from reality as I can imagine)

Does anyone else have any anecdotal evidence or gut feelings towards the effects that the Olympics will have to the Stratford/Leyton/Leytonstone etc areas? I for one would certainly be interested to hear them.

Regards

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mate - there will no HPC - most of these guys on here have been repeating the same mantra for over two years - and has there been a HPC?

Re Olympics - when the Commonwealth Games came to Manc in 2002 everyone said the same thing - and yes there was a lot of investment - we now have a gorgeous 50m swimming pool and Velodrome and City have a new home - but as far as HPI - well er, no not really - maybe the hotels get booked solid for a fortnight but when its all over things get back to normal pretty quickly - I wont be rushing to buy in East London

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I think in your situation I would take the money and rent for a bit longer.

Yup, me too. 2012 is a long, long way away - who knows what can happen between then and now. I would cash in in London, and sit tight in your rented place for now. Can't see the Olympics having a effect on house prices. You might be able to make £3-5K renting your house if it is close enough to the Olympics site, but again, 6 years of risk there... new government, new terrorist attacks on London, anything could happen.

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Yup, me too. 2012 is a long, long way away - who knows what can happen between then and now. I would cash in in London, and sit tight in your rented place for now. Can't see the Olympics having a effect on house prices. You might be able to make £3-5K renting your house if it is close enough to the Olympics site, but again, 6 years of risk there... new government, new terrorist attacks on London, anything could happen.

Forget the olympics, or rather don't forget it but put it on the back burner.! Have you seen canary wharf recently..it makes the city of london in the 1980's look like a fruit and veg market. Hang on to your east london gaff...it's going to go skywards

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I think the Olympics would tend to have an upward influence on prices in the areas that are being regenerated in preparation.

While the influence would be upward, I don't mean it would necessarily make prices rise - in a generally falling market that influence might do no more than cushion the fall in comparison to other areas.

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I still can't get my head around ths Olympics thing. Why would house prices rise just because of an event

that's going to last a month or so.

Ok, the local economy will benefit from visitors in this time and prior to the event (building/infrastructure), but are they seriously going to want to buy a house for an event thats going to run for one month?

Someone please explain.

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I did explain, in the post above! The games might have cause a brief blip and rents are likely to go up. But it is the accompanying regeneration that is likely to strengthen prices compared to what they would have been otherwise.

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I did explain, in the post above! The games might have cause a brief blip and rents are likely to go up. But it is the accompanying regeneration that is likely to strengthen prices compared to what they would have been otherwise.

So someone will pay more cos there's a new shop been built for the chavs to burgal or a sport centre for the chavs

to try out their tracksuits.

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So someone will pay more cos there's a new shop been built for the chavs to burgal or a sport centre for the chavs

to try out their tracksuits.

Sure thing, it's called infrastructure. Shiny new infrastructure. A bit like paying more for a shiny new house. You'll get Mc Donalds,Monsoon, Bang & Olfson, Apple store, Starbucks, M&S, Pizzahut, s*****y bistros, bars and maybe even a B&Q. :D

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Sure thing, it's called infrastructure. Shiny new infrastructure. A bit like paying more for a shiny new house. You'll get Mc Donalds,Monsoon, Bang & Olfson, Apple store, Starbucks, M&S, Pizzahut, s*****y bistros, bars and maybe even a B&Q. :D

But surely people pay good money to be away from all that tat?! If they were building a new tube line I could understand it, but if past performance is any guide to future performance, the Olympic villiage will be mothballed and left unused for about 5 years after the event. Then some enterprising developer will snap it up and cover it with bland newbuild.

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I think your house sounds fantastic and in a great location..

My husband and I keep one house in east london because once you sell it is hard to find another property like the one you already have.

Even if prices go down.. they won't crash in London. To much overseas investment over there. And if anyone will have an increase in immigrants it will be London... plus the tourist industry which will continue to sustain jobs.. in the long term..

I think its the rest of teh country we have to worry about in the long term..

And when will you ever find a beautiful victorian close to trees in London??

When I say crash.. I mean it might decrease but not a full fledged crash! Hopefully.

Edited by ummabdullah

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

So looks like everyone's all agreed on the 'no crash in London, but no Olympic boom either'.

Which points to holding the house for if you ever want to return, or selling and putting it towards your future in Worcestershire.

Me? I'm not sure I would hang on to a Victorian house in London if I wasn't going to be living in it for years (or in your case, maybe not ever). Ongoing maitenance could be a pain.

I would sell.

Edited by Cletus VanDamme

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"As we recently downshifted and moved to Worcestershire where we now rent a house we've decided to let it out rather than pay the £6K"

If your renting out may be wise to take some advice on the CGT position as well.

Regards

Sox

Edited by Bootsox

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If your rent barely covers the mortgage, that is not a good return on your capital.

What happens when you need to do significant work on the place?

On the other hand, what else would you do with the money to keep it safe? It's easy to spunk it.

If you've got a position, it's often best to ride it out.

Will house prices crash in London? I sold my house in the belief they will. It's since gone up by 10 or 15%. I had 65% mortgage, 35% capital. A 10% increase in my house is about 30% capital growth. Hard to make that kind of money anywhere else, paticularly if you don't know about investing.

Then you've got to deal with the emotional upheaval of going from having a property to not having one. It ain't nice, believe me, particularly if you see the one you had go up in value and become unaffordable.

Somebody once said, you should never treat your home as an investment. There's something in that.

Maybe house prices in London will still crash. I think we need two bad years in the City or some major event to trigger it off. Not just UK but world governments know the global economic disaster that an hpc would be. There are a lot a major forces that will be doing their utmost to ensure such an event doesn't occur. It's often better to ride with rather than against such forces.

You could, however, sell it and buy a similar rental property in Germany. But can you be bothered?

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Very interesting comments you have made. I'm just a mile from Canary Wharf and renting. Last year I asked my estate agent to approach my landlord about the possibility of me buying the flat. Was told by the agent, before I could even finish asking the question that "the landlord won't sell until the olympics". Whilst Im sure the Olympics will benefit the housing from Canary Wharf and east to Stratford etc, I am still of the opinion that interest rates are gonna go up by a sufficient amount, before the Olympics get anywhere near us, that lots of buy-to-let investors and others will be feeling the need to sell and/or NEED to sell.

You obviously have a fair bit of equity in your place so are in the enviable position where you can watch and wait. As I posted on another forum yesterday though, when you see lenders offering mortgages for several mates to club together to buy, you know prices are seriously overblown.

Keen to hear any other comments from you all.

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I hadn't realised there had been so many responses to this thread, obviously I should have set things up to get email updates.

Anyway, rightly or wrongly we completed on the sale of the house a few weeks ago. Our fixed term had come to an end and as we knew the mortgage was going to go up by a few hundred quid a month (meaning the house would be costing us circa £100 per month) we decided that there was too much uncertainty in the economy for us to keep renting a house out 150 miles away. We're also self employed so that contributed towards our decision.

If I were more financially secure I'd have kept it for the long term investment that it undoubtedly is but a £210K mortgage in the current climate seemed suicidal.

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I hadn't realised there had been so many responses to this thread, obviously I should have set things up to get email updates.

Anyway, rightly or wrongly we completed on the sale of the house a few weeks ago. Our fixed term had come to an end and as we knew the mortgage was going to go up by a few hundred quid a month (meaning the house would be costing us circa £100 per month) we decided that there was too much uncertainty in the economy for us to keep renting a house out 150 miles away. We're also self employed so that contributed towards our decision.

If I were more financially secure I'd have kept it for the long term investment that it undoubtedly is but a £210K mortgage in the current climate seemed suicidal.

Think you made the right call there. 2012 is still 4 years away and we seem to be starting into the abyss with regard to house prices at the moment. Not to mention the impending City/Canary wharf layoffs.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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