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Peak Oil Going Mainstream?

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What next?

Peak water?

Peak weight?

Obesity seems to be doing a roaring trade (Watched some awful prog last night about how fat people are discriinated against)

The govt's advisor on obesity said "It isn't just a case of eat less and do more"

Hmmm. That's her excuse anyway.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP163667.htm

Evolution, not just gluttony, led to obesity pandemic

And this sort of tosh doesn't help.

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General consensus was peak oil by 2010.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/drivenbyoil/

Very telling comment at the end. Something along the lines of "The Chinese are prepared to pay almost anything. Friction is inevitable".

OMG, Iran's going to be next.

Peak oil is going to make oil way more expensive, Raising IRs. Thinking of buying? Get at least a 10 year fix.

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General consensus was peak oil by 2010.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/drivenbyoil/

Very telling comment at the end. Something along the lines of "The Chinese are prepared to pay almost anything. Friction is inevitable".

OMG, Iran's going to be next.

Peak oil is going to make oil way more expensive, Raising IRs. Thinking of buying? Get at least a 10 year fix.

Agree. The Chinese are the important factor here, they want their slice of the pie and they are probably a lot hungrier, harder working and more resourceful than the obese celebrity obsessed indulged westerner. If we go to war with China for control of the dwindling oil supplies do we still have to pay all that money we owe them.

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Agree. The Chinese are the important factor here, they want their slice of the pie and they are probably a lot hungrier, harder working and more resourceful than the obese celebrity obsessed indulged westerner. If we go to war with China for control of the dwindling oil supplies do we still have to pay all that money we owe them.

Yep, it's a global power grab for the last of the resources. Now we've given the hard working Chinese all our money in exchange for tat; they can afford to buy up all the long term oil contracts in the world. As the west has given the Chinese all our money, we cannot afford either the loss of the petro dollar, or to buy the contracts. Iran, here we come. Hopefully even Bush and Blair aren't mad enough to take on China, but at what point will the Chinese say 'Oi!, enough is enough, we paid for that oil'?

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Yep, it's a global power grab for the last of the resources.

Isn't it inevitable that the US will win at all costs. Remember full spectrum dominance. They're never going to let China have THEIR oil. The dollar is still held in vast quantities by the East. There's no financial or political escape from the US. This is the END GAME and the US knows it.

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Isn't it inevitable that the US will win at all costs.

Is this the same United States that can't even control Iraq?

The dollar is still held in vast quantities by the East.

And if the Asian nations dump their dollars, it's bye-bye US economy.

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Isn't it inevitable that the US will win at all costs. Remember full spectrum dominance. They're never going to let China have THEIR oil. The dollar is still held in vast quantities by the East. There's no financial or political escape from the US. This is the END GAME and the US knows it.

Not sure it is inevitable that the US will win. If the US inflates the dollar into nothingness, or the petrodollar is replaced with the petroeuro, what's the worst case scenario for the Chinese? Equality! If the dollar goes, then US power is gone. The Chinese now have a formidable manufacturing infrastructure they can use to gather in all the petroeuros / petroasians*. They've also use all those dollars to sign long term contracts for resources from the Middle East, Asia, Africa, Australasia, etc. The smart & hard working Chinese think incredibly long term, our politicians only care about the next election.

Will all the Chinese will be whinging about poverty stricken British immigrants within a decade or two? :o

* From the article: Single Asian currency key to stability:

But in Asia, we understand very well that the journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step.

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Apologies for being completely stupid but would someone mind explaining Peak Oil to me?

I'm not sure I can compete with the experts or Wiki, but Peak Oil is the point when the world's consumption is greater than the new reserves brought on stream: so the known stocks of oil start to decline irreversibly. It is complicated because as prices rise, so do your economically viable reserves and the incentive to find new reserves. But it is pretty obvious that there were only so many trees in the carboniferous period, so at some point we will run out.

I've always wondered why and how oil is so cheap given it's an irreplaceable resource (along the EF Schumacher line of thought).

JY

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Apologies for being completely stupid but would someone mind explaining Peak Oil to me?

Try a bit of this. lifeaftertheoilcrash.com

or any book by Dr Colin Cambpell.

IMveryHO. It will be the defining event of the early21st Century. Peak Oil means that it is half gone. That means it goes from being a cheap abundant resource to being a scarce expensive one. The implications to mankind are serious. Optimistic people think throwing up a few windmills will sort the problem out. Realists think if we had of started investing all our oil resources into renewable energy (instead of using them to build and drive suvs and buy asparagus from peru and tootle off to the other side of the world for next to nothing) for the last thirty years we may have been alble to get through running out of oil, and maintain a comfortable standard of living.

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Peak Oil means that it is half gone.

No, it means that production has peaked. It doesn't matter how much oil you have if you can't extract enough to meet demand: prices will go up and up until enough demand has been destroyed to meet supply constraints.

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No, it means that production has peaked. It doesn't matter how much oil you have if you can't extract enough to meet demand: prices will go up and up until enough demand has been destroyed to meet supply constraints.

True, I stand(sit) corrected. Half Gone sounds good though, nice and catchy.

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Peak oil, is the point in the time where the production rate of oil, reaches its maximum point,

and then begins an irreversible decline.

Demand and supply always have to balance. The reason why people are saying it could

be very bad news is that in order for demand and supply to balance in the future, the price of

oil might have to be very much higher. Not just a bit higher but a step-change higher in order to

destroy demand that cannot be fulfilled.

The economic significance of this is that practically every product we consume in our industrial

society uses oil. As oil gets more expensive so do products which use oil, which is practically everything.

Most worrying of all, is food. The recent increases in basic food-stuffs like flour, and grain,

have been partially blamed on high energy prices. You can imagine if oil starts to get really

expensive, food will also get really expensive.

The peakoil doomers will tell you that the past 150 years of exponential population growth are

solely dependent on oil. And the earth's natural carrying capacity, without fossil fuels is

around 1 billion people.

I'm not sure whether I believe this, but you can see how the current economic paradigm

is not going to work going forward, assuming what is said about oil peaking in the near future

is correct.

Much more information can be found at

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

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The peakoil doomers will tell you that the past 150 years of exponential population growth are

solely dependent on oil. And the earth's natural carrying capacity, without fossil fuels is

around 1 billion people.

I'm not sure whether I believe this...

pah! And you call yourself Dr Doom!? ;)

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Guest Alright Jack

You'll know when peak oil hits because fiat will collapse and silver will only be visible using the hubble telescope.

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We have used about half of all known easy oil reserves, that is the easy to get and refine stuff, as the demand for it is increasing we are going to get endless price hikes until our whole system collapses. Alternatives are growing at such a miniscule rate as to have almost no effect on the downward curve. All governments know this and are keeping quiet about it, they dont want it to happen on their watch. All current wars that we are involved in are directly related to this, ie we need a big footprint wherever the oil is, if only to stop others getting it. The first to feel the effects are the 3rd world and developing countries who have already seen price increases of over 100% in the last few years. The last year we found more than we used was about 1986. Currently world daily supply is about equal to demand with only a small margin of excess capacity. Hence big price rises after every small event affecting oil supply. What can we do as individuals? for a start make sure if your going to buy a house, keep public transport in mind, imaging trying to run 2 cars when petrol is 2 or even 5 times the current price. There will be answers long term but not until reality bites and governments have to do something but expect at least 10 - 20 years of real hardship, on the bright side, Ill bet country houses will be cheap and you could move out and grow your own carrorts and give the rat race a miss.

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Thank you very much for sharing your work - very good presentation.

JY

Does anyone know what the EROEI (Energy return on Energy invested) is when converting coal into oil. This seems to be the method of crude oil replacment which is seeing some publicity at the moment.

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We can grow trees and plants (which oil is originally from) so why can't we make oil? Is it too energy intensive? Is much chemistry being done in this field? Do we have any chemists left?

Like the "time to speak about the peak" :)

It does need to get into main stream news and media - into real people's heads so important policy changes can be made.

Sweden and Greenland are aiming to be oil free by choice.

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Is this the same United States that can't even control Iraq?

And if the Asian nations dump their dollars, it's bye-bye US economy.

Bye Bye western economies. Hello new super power--Attila rises again!

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We can grow trees and plants (which oil is originally from) so why can't we make oil? Is it too energy intensive? Is much chemistry being done in this field? Do we have any chemists left?

The reason why it is difficult, is because oil is made up of loads of trees compressed over millions of years.

So you could say oil is in fact a renewable resource, it just doesn't get renewed quickly enough to

keep up with our unsustainable level of consumption.

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Not sure it is inevitable that the US will win. If the US inflates the dollar into nothingness, or the petrodollar is replaced with the petroeuro, what's the worst case scenario for the Chinese? Equality! If the dollar goes, then US power is gone. The Chinese now have a formidable manufacturing infrastructure they can use to gather in all the petroeuros / petroasians*. They've also use all those dollars to sign long term contracts for resources from the Middle East, Asia, Africa, Australasia, etc. The smart & hard working Chinese think incredibly long term, our politicians only care about the next election.

agree,The military contest is going to be a bit one-sided,but the political and economic battle is harder to forecast.

The US is already heavily in debt,what will yet more military action do???.......They'll have to raise IR's to protect the currency.

...but if the type of military action was abhorrent to most of the civilised world(i.e..full on nuclear strike)...the US would lose it's political clout as well as economic clout as it would be ostracised and heavy embargoes imposed on it either by individual states or collectively.

the EU would love such a scenario,as would china and russia.

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The reason why it is difficult, is because oil is made up of loads of trees compressed over millions of years.

So you could say oil is in fact a renewable resource, it just doesn't get renewed quickly enough to

keep up with our unsustainable level of consumption.

We can make diamonds artifically...

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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