Shadow Mpc Vote For Another Rate Hike Next Week

[CrashDive]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...2339937,00.html

The Sunday Times September 03, 2006

- No spin necessary...

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

Would November be seen as being too close to Christmas though.

And September would make it two successive hikes in a row.

Maybe October....?

(I should warn you though that my predictive abilities in matters like this are pitiful. )

[crash2006]

Would November be seen as being too close to Christmas though.

And September would make it two successive hikes in a row.

Maybe October....?

(I should warn you though that my predictive abilities in matters like this are pitiful. )

.25% next week.

[alexays]

Would November be seen as being too close to Christmas though.

And September would make it two successive hikes in a row.

Maybe October....?

(I should warn you though that my predictive abilities in matters like this are pitiful. )

I'm with Pertwee on this one. I think October. When are the higher student Fees going to appearing in the CPI? What are the odds? I might have a flutter.

[BandWagon]

Maybe October....?

(I should warn you though that my predictive abilities in matters like this are pitiful. )

Then it's probably safe to say your predictive abilities are better than your average city "expert"

Edited September 3, 2006 by BandWagon

[StainlessSteelCat]

The headline needs slightly tweaking here. The shadow MPC haven't voted for a rise - only the 3 that voted for a rise last time have.

[CrashDive]

The headline needs slightly tweaking here. The shadow MPC haven't voted for a rise - only the 3 that voted for a rise last time have.

Apologies, typo...

'THREE members of the “shadow” monetary policy committee, which anticipated last month’s surprise base-rate rise, think the Bank of England should repeat the dose this week and raise the rate from 4.75% to 5%.

The shadow MPC, which meets under the auspices of the Institute of Economic Affairs, voted 5-4 for a rise in rates ahead of the increase from 4.5% to 4.75% that took the City by surprise last month.

The previous occasion that it voted for a change — a cut — came ahead of the Bank’s reduction in rates in August last year.

The revelation that three of its nine members support back-to-back rate increases, and that a further three have a “bias to tighten” at a later stage, will add to market nervousness about the degree of policy tightening by the Bank.

The three who favour going up again, Tim Congdon, Andrew Lilico and Gordon Pepper, cite a combination of factors, including buoyant money and credit growth and the risk of inflation rising significantly above the 2% target in the coming months.

Three others, John Greenwood, Ruth Lea and David B Smith, think the Bank should put rates up again soon, probably in November.

Only one, Patrick Minford, thinks the August rise was a mistake and that the next move should be a cut.

The Bank’s September meeting, on Wednesday and Thursday this week, comes after a run of strong housing-market and retail-spending data.

Inflation, however, slipped to 2.4% in July, and consumer confidence weakened sharply last month.

A survey of analysts by Ideaglobal.com, the financial-research firm, shows that 80% expect the Bank to hike further, with November as the favoured date. But analysts believe the rise could come as early as next month or as late as February.

A fifth of analysts believe a US-led slowdown in the world economy will remove the need for further rate increases. That is also the view for America. The median expectation for the US Fed Funds rate at the end of the year is 5.25%, the current level.

Business, which was unhappy with last month’s rate rise, also believes further increases are unnecessary. The latest BDO Business Trends report, produced by accountants BDO Stoy Hayward, shows business’s inflation expectations have stabilised, after rising sharply earlier in the summer.

The report claims that immigration is keeping down wage costs, while recent falls in crude-oil prices have reduced worries about another big increase in energy costs.

Peter Hemington, partner at BDO Stoy Hayward, said: “There is increasing speculation about the possibility of another interest-rate rise towards the end of the year, to combat rising inflation.”

The report also suggests that business optimism has dipped.'

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...2339937,00.html

[sam]

Would November be seen as being too close to Christmas though.

And September would make it two successive hikes in a row.

Maybe October....?

(I should warn you though that my predictive abilities in matters like this are pitiful. )

If they did increase rates next week it would send out a message loud and clear, THE DEBT CULTURE ENDS TODAY.

[Johnny]

.25% next week.

0.25% next week and 0.25% November.

[Jason]

Here's the full breakdown: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/000368.html#more

[gasket37]

Here's the full breakdown: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/000368.html#more

what drugs is Professor Patrick Minford on?

[werewolves]

what drugs is Professor Patrick Minford on?

I thinks it's the Viagra.

All the blood from his brain has gone into his willy.

Hence he is using his willy to think with, rather than his brain.

[werewolves]

Sorry to hear that even with v!agra his willy is still experiencing no inflation.

On a serious note, Prof 'deflationary willy' Minford voted for a 0.5% cut, yes that 0.5% cut back in January.

Quote: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/2006_01.html

Comment by Professor Patrick Minford

(Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University)

Vote: Cut rates by ½%

Both demand and supply growth have weakened…

The state of the economy continues to be one of weak demand, though it has strengthened slightly in the past few months. The weakness probably reflects the tightening of monetary conditions into the early part of last year - in retrospect that looks like over tightening and, in particular, there was a misplaced enthusiasm to ‘hit the housing market’. Meanwhile, inflation is around 2%, with core inflation rather less. Supply growth has also slowed, probably to below 2.5% a year. The Chancellor’s tax policies, including a predilection for retrospective adjustments of tax and for windfall taxes, in particular, continue to create an environment of uncertainty and disincentives; the damage to entrepreneurship and productivity growth is now observable and reflected in competitiveness surveys.

…but demand has decelerated more than supply, justifying a rate cut

Nevertheless demand growth has slowed to less than this. It might seem tempting to punish the Chancellor by holding up interest rates; but it would not be the right role for monetary policy. It should go on being eased. A quarter point cut would be acceptable; but a half point would be good to get monetary policy back on track. As I have said before, I do not regard the growth of broad money as conveying useful information at its present rate, while M0 is growing rather slowly.

This guys desire for a cut puts even David Smith to shame.

[fatso]

I thinks it's the Viagra.

All the blood from his brain has gone into his willy.

Hence he is using his willy to think with, rather than his brain.

Yes I was going to say he's a knob