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Realistbear

U S Housing Collapse Fears

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060901/323/gkztb.html

Friday September 1, 05:05 PM

AFX
Forex - Dollar recovery comes to a halt on US housing market collapse fears
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar's early afternoon recovery, in the wake of a solid US jobs report for August, came to an abrupt halt on mounting concerns that the
US housing market is teetering on the verge of collapse
.
The National Association of Realtors revealed that pending home sales slumped by 7 pct in July to their lowest level in three years. Its pending home sales index, based on contracts signed in July, fell to a seasonally adjusted 105.6 in July from a downwardly revised 113.5 in June.
Paul Ashworth, senior US economist at Capital Economics, said outright falls in house prices would appear to be unavoidable if this trend continues.
'Housing is in freefall and that is the key to the economic outlook,' he said.
:o
'There are now clear downside risks to our longstanding forecast that GDP growth will slow to 2.0 pct next year,' he added.
The housing market has been the main reason behind the US growth spurt over the last couple of years and any suggestion that it is in trouble stokes up concerns about the economic outlook and the likely path of US interest rates.

As the Wall Street Journal article pointed out earlier in the week, Great Crash 2 looks like it is going to be deeper, uglier and much longer lasting than the mild falls of around 30-40% we say in the 1989-96 Crash. Before we rejoice too quickly we do have to think about the devastation that the crash is going to bring to the economy, to jobs, to debt and to the nation's morale. We will surely see Gordon in trouble but that is not much consolation as we face a grim and dark future caused by the consequences of the longest, most irrationaly exhuberant spending spree in history.

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Good to see you're still with us RB. Despite contributing to the mauling you've received in 'another place' I wouldn't want you to take the criticism to heart. My wife has told me that we've all been very mean to you and we should stop now so I'm going to restrict myself to friendly debate on house prices only. :)

So in that spirit, how far do you think house prices need to fall in the US before we should think about buying over there?

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So in that spirit, how far do you think house prices need to fall in the US before we should think about buying over there?

I imagine it'll get pretty ugly over there when things really start to slide - Do you really want to move into the area during a full blown Burger-Fight?

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Good to see you're still with us RB. Despite contributing to the mauling you've received in 'another place' I wouldn't want you to take the criticism to heart. My wife has told me that we've all been very mean to you and we should stop now so I'm going to restrict myself to friendly debate on house prices only. :)

So in that spirit, how far do you think house prices need to fall in the US before we should think about buying over there?

I think the result of the other thread was summed up by Bucephallus: science can't be sure. Minds have at least been opened to the possibility that ID is a more intelligent option that as omewhat medieval belief in spontaneous generation. <_<

That said, it is my view that we cannot escape the US HPC as recession will be the end product. Our economy is more dependent on housing than the US which is far more diversified. If the US bubble markets (mostly on the Coasts) drops 40% we should see slightly more to the downside. For many speculative properties such as BTLs, especially the most recent cheap blocks in dubious locations, we could see 50% drop or even more.

The only factor preventing a wholesale route at the moment is the hope that more immigration holds out to keep wages suppressed and housing costs high. Once our economy goes into recession that threat will recede as immigrants will not be permitted to arrive here to go straight onto the sausage roll--I hope. :ph34r:

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This is the start of a crash...

And crash Cruise Speed will be a series of monthly price falls

Just the beginning.........

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybri...News&rpc=44

UPDATE 2-Fannie Mae lawsuit adds claims on Goldman, Lehman

Fri Sep 1, 2006 5:12pm ET

UPDATE 2-Fannie Mae lawsuit adds claims on Goldman, Lehman

UPDATE 1-Fannie Mae shareholder suit adds Goldman, Lehman

Fannie Mae shareholder suit adds Goldman, Lehman

By Al Yoon

NEW YORK, Sept 1 (Reuters) - A lawsuit that accuses former executives of home finance giant Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) of fraud has been amended to claim that Wall Street banks Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers aided the executives in mismanagement and manipulation of earnings.

The amended shareholder derivative lawsuit claims the banks, as well as mortgage insurer Radian Group Inc. (RDN.N: Quote, Profile, Research), abetted Fannie Mae officers in fraud that will result in an estimated $11 billion restatement, according to a copy of the amended complaint.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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