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I have been reading this site for a while now, and although i find it very informative, i dissagree with the overriding message/prediction which is ofcourse that we are in for a housing crash. Let me explain:

I have been a professional landlord now for around 8 years, and I can think of no better investment. It has made me a very rich man. My properties are in the Liverpool area, and what i have found in this time period is that property as an investment is now very mainstream and very highly percievied. The market is thus underpinned now by far greater number of professional landlords who have deep enough pockets to see through any mild interest rate hikes (ie up to say 6-7%). Anyone expecting a repeat of the 1990 fiasco will be left waiting as the world no longer operates in such a naive manner. Interest rates are not a goverment tool but that of an independed body.

My prediction is that the market will stay steady for a few more years, that interest rates will either peak at the current level 4.75 or 5.0. After say 2 years, there will be a slight interest rate fall, and the market will make up the years of slow growth (2004-2008) by sudden double figure price rises. All my fellow landlords are just sitting tight now waiting for the next cycle of price rises. Crashes only happen when people panic, and this current housing market is controlled too much by bigger players who will not allow that to happen.

I agree that those left off the housing ladder times are hard, but there are always emerging areas where prices are low and set to rise. I am now finding that some areas which used to be no-go areas are now becoming hot spots, with great profit prospects.

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I have been reading this site for a while now, and although i find it very informative, i dissagree with the overriding message/prediction which is ofcourse that we are in for a housing crash. Let me explain:

I have been a professional landlord now for around 8 years, and I can think of no better investment. It has made me a very rich man. My properties are in the Liverpool area, and what i have found in this time period is that property as an investment is now very mainstream and very highly percievied. The market is thus underpinned now by far greater number of professional landlords who have deep enough pockets to see through any mild interest rate hikes (ie up to say 6-7%). Anyone expecting a repeat of the 1990 fiasco will be left waiting as the world no longer operates in such a naive manner. Interest rates are not a goverment tool but that of an independed body.

My prediction is that the market will stay steady for a few more years, that interest rates will either peak at the current level 4.75 or 5.0. After say 2 years, there will be a slight interest rate fall, and the market will make up the years of slow growth (2004-2008) by sudden double figure price rises. All my fellow landlords are just sitting tight now waiting for the next cycle of price rises. Crashes only happen when people panic, and this current housing market is controlled too much by bigger players who will not allow that to happen.

I agree that those left off the housing ladder times are hard, but there are always emerging areas where prices are low and set to rise. I am now finding that some areas which used to be no-go areas are now becoming hot spots, with great profit prospects.

Will I see you in the Marriot tomorrow?

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Will I see you in the Marriot tomorrow?

I havent seen you for awhile and no I still aint checked out that bloody website. :P;)

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Awoogas aside, let me address a few points:

I have been a professional landlord now for around 8 years, and I can think of no better investment.

The last 8 years have shown meteoric rises in house prices - you would have to have been a bit of an idiot NOT to have made money from property over this time period. Had you invested 8 years prior to this, it would likely have been a different story.

property as an investment is now very mainstream and very highly percievied. The market is thus underpinned now by far greater number of professional landlords who have deep enough pockets to see through any mild interest rate hikes.

I can't comment on your peers but my perception is that the market is now filled with highly AMATEUR landlords who have not done their homework, but have based their entire judgement on said mainstream perception:

http://money.guardian.co.uk/property/buyin...1854987,00.html

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/16963/when-w...bble-burst.html

What was the stat about recent BTLs - something like 50% of all BTL properties bought in last 4 years? Cant track it down, perhaps someone else has a link.

These people don't live in their houses and therefore have no great incentive to hold on when things get ropey - risking a flood of 2 bed properties into an already well-served market.

the world no longer operates in such a naive manner

See above articles!

Interest rates are not a goverment tool but that of an independed body.

Spot on (although their independence is a bit dubious). The goverment would hate to see house prices fall, the MPC however is supposed to be divorced from this politiking and should set interest rates to target inflation. If this conflicts with the interests of the housing market I doubt they will shed a tear.

this current housing market is controlled too much by bigger players who will not allow that to happen.

Depends how much control they have - all the might of the US big players doesn't seem to have helped their markets. At which point you have to ask the question: Is the market itself the biggest player? If not, then the biggest player doesn't prioritise the housing market as it is failing. Either way you'll have have problems.

My prediction is soft nominal falls late 2007 hiding larger real falls as the value of the pound declines. This could easily be converted into a crash if the right economic conditions prevail.

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Guest Shedfish

Anyone expecting a repeat of the 1990 fiasco will be left waiting as the world no longer operates in such a naive manner.

the brigands on here are a fairly typical cross-section of potential customers for at least some of your fellow landlords if they need to realise some capital.

Crashes only happen when people panic, and this current housing market is controlled too much by bigger players who will not allow that to happen.

do you know these players personally? Blairs, Bilderbergers, Bungle, Geoffrey... can i touch you?

...there are always emerging areas where prices are low and set to rise. I am now finding that some areas which used to be no-go areas are now becoming hot spots, with great profit prospects.

and in the unlikely event of any downturn the residents of these 'up and coming' areas will wipe the pixy dust from their eyes and by COB it will be a shithole again, and walking round in your underpants drinking Kestrel will be just as widespread as it was before the Monte Cristos moved in

you underestimate the unwitting power of the herd you exploit

but if you should want to offload one BMV sometime

and if you're my landlord i'm so sorry, i don't know what came over me. i think it was the elephant in the corner...

only havin a larf

Edited by Shedfish

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The last 8 years have shown meteoric rises in house prices - you would have to have been a bit of an idiot NOT to have made money from property over this time period.

Absolutely.

Being a 'Landlord' in scouse land, this idiot does not stand a chance when the HPC hits, Liverpool will be particularly hard hit.

Edited by CrashDive

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Let me be the first to resurrect an HPC tradition...

AWOOGA!!

And the double mysteries of why HPC is regarded as a joke in the real world, and why you're in this position in your hopeless life, are solved!

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So the 10-25% reductions I've seen in my area are a mirage and tens of thousands of overstretched first time buyers aren't going to panic because the big players will make it all alright... And the fact that apartments that were previously sold for £150-160K are now renting out at £525/month is not indicative of a problem... Thanks for saving me a wasted wait... I'm off to the bank now to borrow eight times my salary on interest only so I can buy a bedsit. How naive I was to think there was a bubble... Silly me!

Edited by Bingley Bloke

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How was the troll allowed to post a new thread anyway? I think it had all be clamped down on. :unsure:

Well, although I disagree with some of the original poster's views, I would hardly call him a troll. Simply shouting 'troll' when someone posts a non-HPC view devalues these great boards.

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Welcome Landlord. I hope you know what you've let yourself in for.

You will be seen as the reason that many on this site can't afford to buy. It's perfectly legal and of course the government make more money from Landlords selling thanh residents selling. All I would say is don't gloat about being rich. We can all assume that from the fact that you've been a LL for 8 years.

Now you have to convince them that you will be even more wealthy in the next 8 years.

For what it's worth, professional LL's scare the pants off of bears on this sight. As much as they like to think they hate TTRTR (another LL) you can tell they do respect him.

Do you live in Liverpool yourself?

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Guest mattsta1964

Well, although I disagree with some of the original poster's views, I would hardly call him a troll. Simply shouting 'troll' when someone posts a non-HPC view devalues these great boards.

I'd actually like to hear the other side of the arguement and people who disagree with HPC shouldn't be discouraged from posting. It think it's called free speech

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For what it's worth, professional LL's scare the pants off of bears on this sight. As much as they like to think they hate TTRTR (another LL) you can tell they do respect him.

What a load of tosh as usual.

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I have been a professional landlord now for around 8 years, and I can think of no better investment. It has made me a very rich man.

Of course you can't think of a better investment! You've been lucky enough to have held property during the greatest rise in history. Are you claiming credit for having forseen this? I trust not. (That doesn't, of course, take away from the fact that, if what you claim is true, you've done very well - but only due to good fortune, not skill.)

Tell us how you would have done if the capital apreciaition over the 8 years had been at the long term trend rate of 2% + inflation. If you are putting forward the argument that residential property is a great investment over the long term it's very foolish of you to pretend that the last 8 years are normal ones from a capital gain point of view.

Would you have made any profit without capital gain?

p

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And the double mysteries of why HPC is regarded as a joke in the real world, and why you're in this position in your hopeless life, are solved!

TUT TUT........and i thought horses wore the blinkers.(still maybe they do)

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I havent seen you for awhile and no I still aint checked out that bloody website. :P;)

Hello mate, actually it had its best stats ever for August and I thought of you. :P There's plenty of revisions/additions planned for the next quarter, 3 big hitting contrarian journalists to contribute on a regular basis and extra relevant content. Version 3 in Spring should be fun... ;)

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Absolutely.

Being a 'Landlord' in scouse land, this idiot does not stand a chance when the HPC hits, Liverpool will be particularly hard hit.

Hmm..let me see yes and no. OK, some roads in L'Pool you could buy places for 10-15K 6-8 years ago they have been regularly flipped over the past two for 35-45K. Personally I still think there's a bit of value left in buying at 45 given you can easily achieve rents of 350 pcm. Something 'worth' 55 that you buy for 45, if there is a 20% correction over 5 years and the rents stays level, you won't lose much sleep.

Unemploymeny still blights the City and surrounding areas IMHO, there are 'area pockets' in L'Pool were those not in a job peak at 60%, scary s.h.i.t. :o

One thing that has troubled me is the trend, similar to other cities, to build countless inner city apartments, there are huge swathes of the 150K 2 bedders that no one can rent out for enough to cover the payments, that's where I see it getting hit hard as the average wage is similar I reckon amongst FTBs to that highlighted in Devon and Cornwall last week were prices have reached 10-16 times salary.

As to Landlord's idea of up and coming areas not sure on this, I think there is a bit of value left, but for the most part it's all maxed out. One Irish guy I spoke to at an auction 5 months ago was liquidating all his 'portfolio' having "milked it for all its worth", his words not mine. Auction today, only 75 lots, next week a bit more. Will do a report on todays activity.

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What was the stat about recent BTLs - something like 50% of all BTL properties bought in last 4 years? Cant track it down, perhaps someone else has a link.

From Page 8 of the June 2006 ARLA survey of residential landlords, 51.2% of landlords first became BTLs in 2003 or later, and are thus jonny come lately amateurs. 13.8% have been landlords for less than a year. These figures only show when the BTLs bought their first propertea, not any later purchases. Guessing that a fair proportion of this 50% will have bought a second propertea even later than 2003, and have thus averaged their point of negative equity even higher than these figures suggest.

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He's entitled to his opinion, even though his inexperience makes it valueless.

I offloaded the bulk of my portfolio onto people like him - people who think it's still got legs.

I was glad to take the cash to be honest, and in a few years I will no doubt buy them BACK off people like him at 60p on the £ or less.

That's how you make money.

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He's entitled to his opinion, even though his inexperience makes it valueless.

I offloaded the bulk of my portfolio onto people like him - people who think it's still got legs.

I was glad to take the cash to be honest, and in a few years I will no doubt buy them BACK off people like him at 60p on the £ or less.

That's how you make money.

Well said. Lets all make money not sit on our arses thinking about it.

Sod all this speculation, lets actually make something, sell something then make more of them.

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I have been reading this site for a while now, and although i find it very informative, i dissagree with the overriding message/prediction which is ofcourse that we are in for a housing crash. Let me explain:

I have been a professional landlord now for around 8 years, and I can think of no better investment. It has made me a very rich man. My properties are in the Liverpool area, and what i have found in this time period is that property as an investment is now very mainstream and very highly percievied. The market is thus underpinned now by far greater number of professional landlords who have deep enough pockets to see through any mild interest rate hikes (ie up to say 6-7%). Anyone expecting a repeat of the 1990 fiasco will be left waiting as the world no longer operates in such a naive manner. Interest rates are not a goverment tool but that of an independed body.

My prediction is that the market will stay steady for a few more years, that interest rates will either peak at the current level 4.75 or 5.0. After say 2 years, there will be a slight interest rate fall, and the market will make up the years of slow growth (2004-2008) by sudden double figure price rises. All my fellow landlords are just sitting tight now waiting for the next cycle of price rises. Crashes only happen when people panic, and this current housing market is controlled too much by bigger players who will not allow that to happen.

I agree that those left off the housing ladder times are hard, but there are always emerging areas where prices are low and set to rise. I am now finding that some areas which used to be no-go areas are now becoming hot spots, with great profit prospects.

Landlords of your type only account for 8% of the total lending market. The market still needs FTBs as it will be those that plan on moving up the ladder in a few years which you landlords will not. If FTBs can’t get on the ladder then this will not happen and the market will freeze. The only way to sell will be to drop prices. Current FTB levels are at a record low of 7% according to the NAEA. Whatever your arguments are, without FTBs the market is doomed.

You also focus mainly on interest rates but have not considered the effect of low inflation. Previous generations bought in a high inflation economy. We are in a low inflation economy. This means that it takes longer to erode the capital of the debt. Mortgages in a high inflation economy are front-loaded. The tipping point in a low inflation economy comes towards the end meaning if you struggle to buy your first house then the chances are you’ll never be able to move up the ladder. Again houses further up can’t sell and the only way to shift them is to drop prices.

Because it takes longer to erode the capital of the debt in a low inflation economy, the total interest you pay is that much greater. That is less money being fed into the economy, less into savings for retirement, less into pensions, more strain on the welfare state. It means that the economy is more susceptible to interest rate rises. For me, the additional total amount payable on the debt is a good reason not to buy. Not that I could afford it anyway. I ‘only’ earn £30k a year.

Neither have you accounted for the fact that our pension system is in crises and that 2/3 of the credit card debt in Europe is on UK credit cards. You cannot look at the housing market in isolation. There are many other things that affect it. It is not just about interest rates. The current situation is silly and unsustainable in the long run.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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