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corblimey

Winners And Losers

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The current house price bubble is surely creating economic winners :) and losers :( . When the HPC arrives there will again be winners :) and losers :( of varying degrees. So the overall economic effect is likely to be more neutral :blink: in my opinion. Overall confidence is probably the key issue, and granted, a HPC will dent confidence. With globalisation : freedom of capital and labour I think we are more likely to see a quick return to economic equilibrium. Any recession is likely to be short. Depreciation of house prices will occur over a much longer period. What we really need to be freaking worried about is global warming and enviromental degradation. That really will be our downfall. Economics will then cease to exist. In the mean time I pity the FTB who will have bought at or near the top of the market...they are going to be buggered. There should certainly be limits placed on borrowing to protect the FTB. 40 year mortgages....NO!

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The current house price bubble is surely creating economic winners :) and losers :( . When the HPC arrives there will again be winners :) and losers :( of varying degrees. So the overall economic effect is likely to be more neutral :blink: in my opinion. Overall confidence is probably the key issue, and granted, a HPC will dent confidence. With globalisation : freedom of capital and labour I think we are more likely to see a quick return to economic equilibrium. Any recession is likely to be short. Depreciation of house prices will occur over a much longer period. What we really need to be freaking worried about is global warming and enviromental degradation. That really will be our downfall. Economics will then cease to exist. In the mean time I pity the FTB who will have bought at or near the top of the market...they are going to be buggered. There should certainly be limits placed on borrowing to protect the FTB. 40 year mortgages....NO!

Sorry I thought this thread was about violent, lying, cheating, narcissistic, former forum posters. :lol::lol::lol::lol:

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So the overall economic effect is likely to be more neutral

Not true. If prices are kept artifically high this will benefit a fixed number of current homeowners, but it will constitute an unnecessary cost to an infinite number of future home byers to enter the market. The net effect is a huge cost, or infinite, if you do not discount it (why should one).

So the overall economic effect is not likely to be neutral. Even so many seem to suggest so, or even wose; some suggests that rising house prices (above construction costs) is a source of national prosperity! If it was, increasing long run welfare would be easy: We could just limit (or why not abolish) all future house construction! Prices surly rise and welfare rise with it.

Ad infinitum.

What great economics wouldn't that be? ;)

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90% of all per capita economic growth is from innovation, technologies, not from vastly expanding the population.

When people, politicans bandy about and go on about 'economic growth' - what is it?

It is simply greater produce. More produce per person in a range of goods and services which the consumer wants.

Why do we have slumps in which millions of people are routinely unemployed - lack of people? Lack of population?

No - we have a situation where costs have risen and we cannot compete against other producers globally, demand is greater than the supply from both capital technology and skilled people in the economy, so we have higher interest rates as a form of regulation - a type of crude 'valve' - which raises productivity to the level of our competitors, by dumping millions of people out of work.

Fortress Europe and USA have been very sucessful in constantly rising standards of living, unlike the rest of the world, because thier populations have been limited (and share a common set of values, laws etc..) - this means they are able to claim a share of (their own) greater productivity from rising wages, which would normally go to owners of capital and land. Rather than relying on extra labour to reap more wheat, a machine does the job - rising wages and competition actually force this innovation.

As the population is vastly increased from the largest immigration is history, standards of living per person will continue to fall. Houseprices will continue to rise, and incomes drop. A vast divide between those who recieve income from thier labour, and those whose income is from rents will become entrenched.

The fruits of Globalisation are really in the end about free movement of ideas - i.e. innovation and the coporations and people who can deliver them to soceities, not massive movements of people.

We all benefit from controlled, limited immigration, as new ideas and cultures increase the range of produce we can consume and produce for each other. Only the owners of capital and land benifit from mass immigration, not labour, labour sees huge price rises in resources and declining income, as has been shown right thoughout history.

There is no 'neutral'.

After money booms with the printing press in double digits, the society slumps into a land economy.

For example, after John Laws inflation in France reeked havok, also in an economy with a strongly growing population, totaliterian law was imposed, and society was divided into 3 estates - the landed, the crony connected, and the '3rd estate' - the common people, who where owned by thier lords.

(70 years later the french revolution occured, and the American consistution was modeled on the ideas and innovation from this event.)

Such a system of ownership and totaliterianism is probable with the ID cards and population register, and the continuing house price boom and stagnent wages and increased compounding volumes of mass immigration, as society continues to further polarise into millionare landlords, and credit further polarises from the common people, in favour of landlords with incredible tax breaks.

Edited by brainclamp

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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