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Guest UK Debt Slave

Sorry To Be Trollish But........

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Guest mattsta1964

It a mathematical certainty it's all gonna go Pete Tong one day but...........Maybe not yet!

Such is the nature of things in the new world order, a serious property crash now will be a disaster for the '3 B's' (Bush, Bliar and Brown) and they'll use every trump card, every deal under the table to prevent a crash. Can they buck the market? Can they keep the show on the road for a couple more years? I have a horrible feeling they might be able to do it. These people are not as ignorant as we take them to be. They KNOW the score, they are extremely clever and cynical in their own twisted way. They should definitely NOT be underestimated. They wont let a crash happen on their watch. Your thoughts please.

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It a mathematical certainty it's all gonna go Pete Tong one day but...........Maybe not yet!

Such is the nature of things in the new world order, a serious property crash now will be a disaster for the '3 B's' (Bush, Bliar and Brown) and they'll use every trump card, every deal under the table to prevent a crash. Can they buck the market? Can they keep the show on the road for a couple more years? I have a horrible feeling they might be able to do it. These people are not as ignorant as we take them to be. They KNOW the score, they are extremely clever and cynical in their own twisted way. They should definitely NOT be underestimated. They wont let a crash happen on their watch. Your thoughts please.

We've been hearing a lot over the past week about how prices are sliding and sales volumes collapsing in the bubble areas of the US. Bush and the Fed couldn't delay it any longer without keeping interest rates recklessly low and letting inflation rip.

With rates rising globally and signs of credit tightening for over-indebted UK borrowers there's little the MPC or Brown can do now to delay the inevitable correction over here for much longer.

Nevertheless, I expect to see a lot more frantic spinning and ramping from lenders, estate agents, and their friends in the media upto and beyond the point it all goes t/ts up over here in an attempt to draw more in.

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House prices will stay high because there are lots of people who think that a manky flat in a manky area is worth getting £180k in debt over. Until people come to their senses and realise that £180k is a really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really large amount of money then prices will stay sky high.

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Guest mattsta1964

For sure, there will be at least one more "the Spring bounce is coming" being touted around in the depths of Winter.

I wouldn't put it past one last big upward spike in the market occurring next spring. I think it will rattle some people on here who have been waiting so long but people should sit tight

House prices will stay high because there are lots of people who think that a manky flat in a manky area is worth getting £180k in debt over. Until people come to their senses and realise that £180k is a really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really large amount of money then prices will stay sky high.

Borrowing 90K is a really really really really really etc large amount of money

Borrowing 180K is pure unadulterated insanity for people on the numpy salaries they are expected to live on

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I don't think they can fight the market, but Brown's via the ONS has already managed to delay market forces till a point where everyone in the country is feeling something is wrong (impact of Gas/elec/insurance/council tax etc). This is already leading to more vocal political issues arraising in the UK, with Brown and Blair on different sides.

Ignoring Bush and the USA, I believe Brown is now fighting for his political future as his free lunch to Number 10 seems to have already been eaten by Tony. He will continue to a crap slack jawed politician until someone with balls (not Ed) decides to force the issue on Tony. It's just a question of how much further damage is done to UK while Brown/ONS/BoE fight it out. Tony is unlikely to be able to swing the Market with any force as he doesn't hold the purse, his one Joker would be pushing another War on the public..

With team work it was possible, but that what happen post dot-com till bubble started to leak... now it's everyman for themselves.

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It a mathematical certainty it's all gonna go Pete Tong one day but...........Maybe not yet!

Such is the nature of things in the new world order, a serious property crash now will be a disaster for the '3 B's' (Bush, Bliar and Brown) and they'll use every trump card, every deal under the table to prevent a crash. Can they buck the market? Can they keep the show on the road for a couple more years? I have a horrible feeling they might be able to do it. These people are not as ignorant as we take them to be. They KNOW the score, they are extremely clever and cynical in their own twisted way. They should definitely NOT be underestimated. They wont let a crash happen on their watch. Your thoughts please.

...and they're all out to get you...

:rolleyes:

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I think we're gonna be here for quite a while yet

Ha - some of us have been here for some time already - if there are no real signs soon it has got to be time to through in the towel – I remember when I first came here people saying if you are going to panic – panic early and beat the rush – so there must be a lot of people that already have been waiting 2 years + (like me)

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It a mathematical certainty it's all gonna go Pete Tong one day but...........Maybe not yet!

Such is the nature of things in the new world order, a serious property crash now will be a disaster for the '3 B's' (Bush, Bliar and Brown) and they'll use every trump card, every deal under the table to prevent a crash. Can they buck the market? Can they keep the show on the road for a couple more years? I have a horrible feeling they might be able to do it. These people are not as ignorant as we take them to be. They KNOW the score, they are extremely clever and cynical in their own twisted way. They should definitely NOT be underestimated. They wont let a crash happen on their watch. Your thoughts please.

Sorry, totally disagree.

However powerful Bush is, he is but a mere speck compared to the market. Who created this asset bubble? Not Dubya, not Tone but Alan Greenspan with his policy of 'accomodative' IRs.

You don't increase the money supply without consequences - those being inflation and ultimately higher IRs.

The market has created the bubble and the market will correct itself; of that I'm sure.

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Hate to say it but I've got a feeling the Fed's gonna hold on a bit longer. The EU just left their rates on hold and I think the BTLs are still bowling along just fine - rate increase or not. Spending on the high street's gone down a touch, people are paying off expensive debt on store and credit cards maybe indicating that even the "sheeple" are cottoning on to the fact that the party can't go on forever. 2007 may very well be the last year of the HPI but I think it'll take rates over 5.25% to push us over the edge.

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The market has created the bubble and the market will correct itself; of that I'm sure.

There's another option, the market has a way of destroying excess money.

This has happened many times in the past, and it's a very ugly business.

Right now the market is turning, but when it swings right around the crunch can be terribly violent.

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There's another option, the market has a way of destroying excess money.

This has happened many times in the past, and it's a very ugly business.

Right now the market is turning, but when it swings right around the crunch can be terribly violent.

Good point. How exactly does the market destroy excess money and what will be the consequences for the US/UK housing market, specifically?

Thanks

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During boom times banks extend credit, they increase the money supply because they can.

Borrowers are keen to borrow, and lenders are keen to lend. Confidence is high.

This moves prices higher, people feel wealthier, the good times roll.

At some point lending reaches a point where it can no longer be repaid. (The UK is here)

Loans that were extended turn bad, businesses and banks go bust.

Loans get written off, and the money disappears in a puff, like it never existed.

The money supply contracts violently, borrowers don't want to borrow, and lenders don't want to lend. Pessimism abounds.

It's a centuries old cycle.

The WSJ had a nice article, this is just the start...

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=34734

Edited by BandWagon

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Guest Shedfish

i'm going to stick my neck out - if i'm to make a tw@t of myself this seems like as good a place as any.

the 'crash' is currently in progress, in some of the regions (most definitely mine). very slowly. more of a dribble than a flood. but i think this will change within the next 6 - 9 months, and i think it will be quite fast not long after the new year

arguments /reasons for a continuing bull market:

- mortgage approvals data. a good one, i know. no reasoned arguments to that one...

- unlimited immigration

- lies, damn lies and statistics

arguments for an imminent bear market:

- almost a parallel market in City developments, in contrast to the demand for family homes. net effect = stationary prices for now, but an oversupply overall

- london market effects can only spread so far with affordability constraints elsewhere, and IMO they have reached as far as they're going to

- if most people waiting to buy are already renting, and there is a net oversupply of low yield / instant cash sink crap empty houses and flats, the BTL market is approaching supernova, and since this has recently replaced the 'bottom feeders' then the market as it stands will be broken when the latecomers panic

- all the dirty trick mortgages seen last crash are now on the table (and then some)

- personal debt is already 'exponential', even compared to house prices

- at least one more interest rate hike is inevitable in 2006

- the downturn on a leveraged market, when it tips, is brutal. it would take the flap of a butterfly's wings to cause that, where we are today.

arguments for soft landing

- :blink:

if america sneezes, they won't be able to afford the handkerchief

incidentally, i will be posting this in the 'cliches' thread too :)

Edited by Shedfish

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Guest Shedfish

setting this against this from a clever guy off the sl4 mailing list

I'm fubared.

Prices are dropping!!!! Prices are dropping!!!!

Nominal and real!!!! Nominal and real!!!!

that's better

that might be what i think i meant, if i'm lucky...

i.e i think i need a lie down, maybe another bifter

oo look, something shiny :D

but yes!

Edited by Shedfish

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arguments for an imminent bear market:

- almost a parallel market in City developments, in contrast to the demand for family homes. net effect = stationary prices for now, but an oversupply overall

- london market effects can only spread so far with affordability constraints elsewhere, and IMO they have reached as far as they're going to

- if most people waiting to buy are already renting, and there is a net oversupply of low yield / instant cash sink crap empty houses and flats, the BTL market is approaching supernova, and since this has recently replaced the 'bottom feeders' then the market as it stands will be broken when the latecomers panic

- all the dirty trick mortgages seen last crash are now on the table (and then some)

- personal debt is already 'exponential', even compared to house prices

- at least one more interest rate hike is inevitable in 2006

- the downturn on a leveraged market, when it tips, is brutal. it would take the flap of a butterfly's wings to cause that, where we are today.

I think there is another argument which you haven't included, I'll call it - random unique factors.

Historical events are unique. There can be similarities but they are never identical (that wouldn't be possible).

One of the random unique factors this time round as opposed to the last time there was a crash of the housing market is global terrorism. Terrorists now have, I believe, the power to disrupt EVERYTHING because everything is so closely linked globally. When you consider that 9/11 led to the entire airline business in North America being closed down that is SERIOUS power. Lord alone knows what they have planned next and I truly hope they never achieve their goals but I think they could tilt the balance in one day if they choose the right target at the right time and pulled off their plan. I don't have the knowledge or imagination to understand what would happen if, for example, they severely distrupted the work in the financial heart of London or New York or Tokyo but it could be the thing that tilts everything else.

Some believe the theory that interest rates have been kept artifically low since 9/11 so as not to hand a victory of economic depression to the terrorists. The next attack could (through accident or design) happen at a moment when it appears to precipitate an economic downturn which may already have been inevitable.

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Housing has risen so high and for so long.

Sometimes I fear that the UK is returning to a Victorian society of a rich elite and ever more impoverished masses.

In Victorian Britain very few people owned their own house - they were the property of a small and rich elite.

Could this be the way the UK is heading?

If so, things are looking very grim indeed. :(

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It a mathematical certainty it's all gonna go Pete Tong one day but...........Maybe not yet!

Such is the nature of things in the new world order, a serious property crash now will be a disaster for the '3 B's' (Bush, Bliar and Brown) and they'll use every trump card, every deal under the table to prevent a crash. Can they buck the market? Can they keep the show on the road for a couple more years? I have a horrible feeling they might be able to do it. These people are not as ignorant as we take them to be. They KNOW the score, they are extremely clever and cynical in their own twisted way. They should definitely NOT be underestimated. They wont let a crash happen on their watch. Your thoughts please.

Who knows when it will happen. But interest rates are rising here and in Europe, the US housing market and maybe Oz are crashing apparently. Taxes and other expenses are rising well above the fiddled inflation measurement, unlike wages. Timing is hard to predict and I have been expecting it for a few years but it all looks pretty bad right now.

S.

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Housing has risen so high and for so long.

Sometimes I fear that the UK is returning to a Victorian society of a rich elite and ever more impoverished masses.

In Victorian Britain very few people owned their own house - they were the property of a small and rich elite.

Could this be the way the UK is heading?

If so, things are looking very grim indeed. :(

If that's the way things are heading then we're looking at a nasty recession, IMHO. The more aspiring owners try to save to buy, the more money gets sucked out of the rest of the economy. Same goes for renters who are renting from the more recent landlords who have to charge more and more to cover their mortgages - they have less money to spend elsewhere.

This whole thing boils down to money being yanked out of the rest of the economy and piled into houses. Keep doing that, and people have less money to spend on goods. As far as I can see, that leaves two options - create more money and end up with inflation problems (without wage inflation), or alternatively people spend more and more of their income on having a roof (rented from landlord or rented from bank) over their heads and so spend less elsewhere, causing recession.

The longer the house prices rise, the worse this gets. There are those who bought before this happened, those who bought outright etc. but over time the higher prices will affect more and more people and the pre-HPI insanity lot will have less and less of a balancing effect. My theory is that ultimately, people will keep buying houses in the belief of obscene profits until they're forced not to. Too many think that any falter will be a brief blip and then the prices will go up again, e.g. BTL characters who are "in it for the long term." Only when it all starts to go pear-shaped and this money transfer from wider economy->housing starts to cause a serious recession, will people be forced to stop because they simply can't afford it any more. I believe that this last part is only just now beginning and we may have a way to go yet. Judging timing on this is bloody difficult...

Feel free to point out any glaring faults in my economic logic. I'm still learning, after all!

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This whole thing boils down to money being yanked out of the rest of the economy and piled into houses. Keep doing that, and people have less money to spend on goods. As far as I can see, that leaves two options - create more money and end up with inflation problems (without wage inflation), or alternatively people spend more and more of their income on having a roof (rented from landlord or rented from bank) over their heads and so spend less elsewhere, causing recession.

That is a good point. I never took that factor into consideration before.

There maybe comparisons here with the Japanese bubble and subsequent recession.

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My little sword glowed bright blue when I saw your opening phrase:

Sorry to be ......... but ...........

This is standard troll speak.

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That is a good point. I never took that factor into consideration before.

There maybe comparisons here with the Japanese bubble and subsequent recession.

Well, that's what I think anyway. Feel free to blow holes in the theory, I'll happily accept it if I'm missing something, I'm just trying to make sense of it all! It's just that from my current thinking I can't see any solutions that don't boil down to 3 choices:

1) Inflation

2) Recession

3) House price drops

I would have thought option 3 would bring its own mini-recession though. I guess that's the "soft landing" scenario, which I personally believe is very unlikely because it would require so much to work out just right - otherwise it'd turn into major drops, or a small dip and then prices going up again, leading to options 1 or 2 all over again.

Thinking further, wouldn't inflation without wage inflation cause a recession anyway?

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

Housing has risen so high and for so long.

Sometimes I fear that the UK is returning to a Victorian society of a rich elite and ever more impoverished masses.

In Victorian Britain very few people owned their own house - they were the property of a small and rich elite.

Could this be the way the UK is heading?

If so, things are looking very grim indeed. :(

The 'Steampunk age' is where we are headed indeed. SF has, over the decades, correctly predicted many changes in society and technology, and I fear the Bruce Sterlings and Neal Stephensons are right on this one too.

Back to Victorian values, Victorian society, but with shiny gadgets.

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Guest mattsta1964

My little sword glowed bright blue when I saw your opening phrase:

Sorry to be ......... but ...........

This is standard troll speak.

I don't understand what you mean

I don't doubt that there will be a crash. People who talk of soft landings are delusional. There are people expecting the moment of truth to occur very soon now. Fair enough I say. Your grounds for feeling the crash is imminent are well justified. I'm just pointing out that the slime who run the world should not be underestimated. They may not have the power to buck the market completely but they can definitely influence it. It's like Gordon Brown and the MPC. The BOE is supposed to be independant form the government but is it??? I'm not so sure. Gordon Brown is still pulling strings in order to protect what he considers his birthright, to be PM. No doubt the crooks running the USA are similarly influential in how the machinations of the Federal Reserve.

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I don't understand what you mean

I don't doubt that there will be a crash. People who talk of soft landings are delusional. There are people expecting the moment of truth to occur very soon now. Fair enough I say. Your grounds for feeling the crash is imminent are well justified. I'm just pointing out that the slime who run the world should not be underestimated. They may not have the power to buck the market completely but they can definitely influence it. It's like Gordon Brown and the MPC. The BOE is supposed to be independant form the government but is it??? I'm not so sure. Gordon Brown is still pulling strings in order to protect what he considers his birthright, to be PM. No doubt the crooks running the USA are similarly influential in how the machinations of the Federal Reserve.

I guess it's a case of walking a fine line between realism and paranoia. How possible is it to determine just how many tricks these people have up their sleeves and how many strings they have to pull?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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