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Teddy Bear

It's Different This Time....

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Or is it? Interest rates at 4.75 with talk of a further rise. A few bearish stories in press. Talk of a credit buble about to burst & bad debts etc..etc.. Loads of people on this site patting themselves on back prematurely. Haven't we been here before? For August '06 read August '04. Ever get that sense of deja vu? So go on, tell why "its different this time" from two years ago. Sensible, concise answers please.

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Guest Alright Jack

Or is it? Interest rates at 4.75 with talk of a further rise. A few bearish stories in press. Talk of a credit buble about to burst & bad debts etc..etc.. Loads of people on this site patting themselves on back prematurely. Haven't we been here before? For August '06 read August '04. Ever get that sense of deja vu? So go on, tell why "its different this time" from two years ago. Sensible, concise answers please.

It certainly is different this time.

My message to Gordon Brown is this: Kiss my... signature.

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Or is it? Interest rates at 4.75 with talk of a further rise. A few bearish stories in press. Talk of a credit buble about to burst & bad debts etc..etc.. Loads of people on this site patting themselves on back prematurely. Haven't we been here before? For August '06 read August '04. Ever get that sense of deja vu? So go on, tell why "its different this time" from two years ago. Sensible, concise answers please.

Err, were property prices increasing at 19.3% yoy August '04?

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More job losses

immigrants keeping wage inflation down

immigrants being a strain on the economy

taxes up

debt increasing at 10% per year

interest rates up

sentiment becoming neutral - negative

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No different if not identical to what we were seeing in Aug 2004. Infact thats when we got our biggest hit of new immigrants from the new eastern eu states. Next!

More job losses

immigrants keeping wage inflation down

immigrants being a strain on the economy

taxes up

debt increasing at 10% per year

interest rates up

sentiment becoming neutral - negative

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I reckon this country will look like something out of MadMax after this bubble has popped/deflated... :lol:

Edited by dnd

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No because the consecutive rises in interest rates had begun to bite by then. Any other offers?

So if the property prices were increasing at 19.3% yoy in August '04 and they are not now that means it's different this time yes?

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Interest rates go up a bit.

People just hock themselves a bit more.

Lets face it considering some the indebtedness people have its a drop in the ocean finance.

Has to end eventually the game eventually plays itself out. Doesn't it.

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For a start it depends which measure you're using. There are lies, dammed lies and there are statistics. With the large numbers of different measures now as then you can find double digit rises to single decreases and plenty in between. Perhaps I should have made Oct '03 at the start of the round of rate rises as the anology rather than August '04 which the final one. Either way the similarities remain uncanny. Where you on this site back then?

So if the property prices were increasing at 19.3% yoy in August '04 and they are not now that means it's different this time yes?

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What's the point. Of course the situation is worse today, everyone has far more debt in relation to their income. Employment prospects are worse, companies are failing at a faster rate, repossesions are increasing, as are bankruptcy's...

But in Aug 05 rates went down, if rates went down in the new year I would expect another bounce in the market. But something will give, and that will probably sterling because of rising inflation. The fundermentals are just not supporting today's prices. Sentiment is.

It's a bubble, and we all have itchy bottoms and can't sit still waiting...

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ever been in a car crash?

It's interesting.

For what seems like an eternity, you are speeding towards the wall.

And then for another eternity you are still speeding towards the wall.

Very deja vu, in fact.

The sensation dissipates when you actually hit the wall, of course.

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For a start it depends which measure you're using. There are lies, dammed lies and there are statistics. With the large numbers of different measures now as then you can find double digit rises to single decreases and plenty in between. Perhaps I should have made Oct '03 at the start of the round of rate rises as the anology rather than August '04 which the final one. Either way the similarities remain uncanny. Where you on this site back then?

It would also depend which measure you're using. I'm using Nationwide for both 04 and 06. If required I can collate in the figure of your choice.

Alternatively, you can start on Oct '03, it's your call.

I was not on this site back then but I have the data as it was not peculiar to HPC. :blink:

Your call.

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How about the BOJ moving off 0% and all their 0% JGS' & JGB's have now matured.

How about the Fed no longer publishing M4 data.

How about the oil price being ~$70 as opposed to ~$38.

The difference is money is worth less than it was in 2004.

Most people earn comparible wages, thus Joe Public is poorer.

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Or is it? Interest rates at 4.75 with talk of a further rise. A few bearish stories in press. Talk of a credit buble about to burst & bad debts etc..etc.. Loads of people on this site patting themselves on back prematurely. Haven't we been here before? For August '06 read August '04. Ever get that sense of deja vu? So go on, tell why "its different this time" from two years ago. Sensible, concise answers please.

Most obvious difference is the ongoing collapse of the American housing market giving a better than evens chance of a US recession. That and inflationary pressure leading to interest rate rises. That should be added to all the factors which caused the slump in 2005 which still exits.

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For a start it depends which measure you're using. There are lies, dammed lies and there are statistics. With the large numbers of different measures now as then you can find double digit rises to single decreases and plenty in between. Perhaps I should have made Oct '03 at the start of the round of rate rises as the anology rather than August '04 which the final one. Either way the similarities remain uncanny. Where you on this site back then?

So, Oct 03 hpi at 15.5% from 25.3% one year previously, ir @ 3.5% and rising.

Can you remind us all of the current yoy hpi and interest rate?

Is that the best you can do? How about backing your theory up?

So, your turn.

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So bored of this type of debate.

Back up any assertions - no need. Its simple really: debt, interest rates, jobs, inflation.

debt - up

interest rates - level with 2004 but looking set to rise

jobs - down

inflation - up

how much debt can the population carry? Bankrupsies and Repos are increasing, so not much by the looks of it. Will it take a year or 3 - I don't know.

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Guest mattsta1964

Or is it? Interest rates at 4.75 with talk of a further rise. A few bearish stories in press. Talk of a credit buble about to burst & bad debts etc..etc.. Loads of people on this site patting themselves on back prematurely. Haven't we been here before? For August '06 read August '04. Ever get that sense of deja vu? So go on, tell why "its different this time" from two years ago. Sensible, concise answers please.

I'm not calling it yet. What lengths will they go to to stop a HPC and when will the pressures make resistance futile. It could drag on well into next year, possibly 2008 before the house of cards collapses. Eyes are firmly on the US housing market. Will they fudge something to save HPI? Possibly. But it'll only delay the inevitiable.

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Debt and money supply is the key.

Interest serviceability is one thing, repayment is quite another.

Unemployment is still a big factor, higher interest rates will tell but it will take months/years.

Too much money.

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I'm no statistician. All I can say is what happened next turned out contrary to what everyone here expected and flew in the face of what seemed at the time to be sound economic argument. The market simply peetered out, the inflationary pressures eased in time leading to a rate cut, city bonuses then kicked in and hey presto the market started to boom all over again. Don't count your chickens just yet...

So, Oct 03 hpi at 15.5% from 25.3% one year previously, ir @ 3.5% and rising.

Can you remind us all of the current yoy hpi and interest rate?

So, your turn.

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BoE and UK housing market were too early compared to the rest of the world

Now IR have increased / are increasing in all other developped countries (US, Europe...) and their real estate market are turning down

HPC will occured in all countries with a bubble approximately at the same period

But I should say "could" instead of "will", nobody is sure of the future

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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