Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Bobbins

Anyone For A Septmeber Interest Rate Rise?

Recommended Posts

Well the first batch of data is coming in since the Merv and his cronies August IR shot across the bows. Seem like the consumer has took the signal to spend more.

CBI says August sales soar and house prices according to Nationwide march ever higher. If this is what happens when IR go up 25 points, then there's going to be more rises to come - and we haven't seen all the utilities, tuition fees, food etc. inflationary pressures kick in yet.

Merv. will have the draft of that letter compete by now.

Although the markets are pencilling in a Novemeber rate rise, with the response of the consumer to the last one, I think they'll be seriously discussing a rise at September's meeting.

Two rises back-to-back may then start to hit sentiment. After all going from 4.5 to 5% is a 11% increase in interest rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm saying 0.25% in September

Also think the press seems to be providing the ammunition to justify another .25%.

Still think they'll be another one whatever in Nov.

Been reading about other asset class crashes recently, including the tech stock bust of 2000, the housing market movement is so unbelievably similar it is untrue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another reason not to buy, a mortage will run away with itself if the rates go up again by the end of the year.

I predict another rise in September, if not definately October AND November.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it would be easier if we all follow GB's example of giving public sector workers a pay rise of 2% to match his inflation target. With council tax and energy bills rocketing up by anywhere between 20-50%, the simplest soloution is just to pay an extra 2% on all these bills to keep inflation in check.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Alright Jack

If the BoE wants to retain its credibility it will have to raise rates - 0.5% increase anyone?

You mean it had credibility to begin with?

How can an institution that guarantees the balance sheets of maverick banks with trillions and trillions of dollars of casino derivative bets...... When an accident happens you'd better be ready with your scuba gear because the money flood is nigh...

What I meant to say was how can such institutions with such a liability to financial bandits have credibility?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In view of recent data, Im viewing next weeks MPC meeting a bit of a crunch time

IMO if MPC dont hike .25% / pref .5% then they have pretty much given up on inflation "targeting" prefering to bouy-up the high street "feelgood factor" and protect the feckless

From October Browns doves arrive, and will be voting [along with recent new external member Blanchflower] for hold/cuts. The media will be full of MPC "split" stories and "next rate cut" spin, and the battle for sentiment will be all but lost.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From October Browns doves arrive, and will be voting [along with recent new external member Blanchflower] for hold/cuts.

But if six still vote for raises they'll make no difference. Even if five of the people who voted to raise last time vote again, they'll win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm afraid i think you're dreaming. Since when has CPI reflected real inflation? In any case the BoE have shown in the past they are prepared to ignore booming house prices. They cut rates when house prices were going crazy. The UK consumer has never stopped spending like theres no tomorrow, debt has gone from £1trillion to £1.24trillion in the blink of an eye and the BoE have done next to nothing about it except make small interest rate movements and try and talk people into not overstretching. I will be stunned if we get more than one more rise, which will probably be a few months away if at all.

It seems number 1 priority is to keep house prices and consumer spending from falling.

Edited by simon99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But if six still vote for raises they'll make no difference. Even if five of the people who voted to raise last time vote again, they'll win.

even if they're too slow raising interest rates it will just mean they'll have to raise them harder and faster further down the line. This will be bad for UK economy and lead to recession and collapsing asset prices. We'll get that house price crash , but it will end up being far worse - and more of us will end up losing our jobs - than it needed to be. sur ehouses will bottom out but it'll be hard to get a mortgage, even if you've got a job to justuify it in the first place!

But hey , since when did GB give a flying monkeys about actual management of the economy and not just spin?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Alright Jack

In view of recent data, Im viewing next weeks MPC meeting a bit of a crunch time

IMO if MPC dont hike .25% / pref .5% then they have pretty much given up on inflation "targeting" prefering to bouy-up the high street "feelgood factor" and protect the feckless

From October Browns doves arrive, and will be voting [along with recent new external member Blanchflower] for hold/cuts. The media will be full of MPC "split" stories and "next rate cut" spin, and the battle for sentiment will be all but lost.

The MPC have NEVER targetted inflation. The system doesn't work that way. Their job is to inflate and try to cover it up by propping up demand to hold the currency. Take the red pill.... The truth is all around you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Their job is to inflate and try to cover it up by propping up demand to hold the currency.

You mean exports and/or consumer demand in general?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest mattsta1964

The MPC have NEVER targetted inflation. The system doesn't work that way. Their job is to inflate and try to cover it up by propping up demand to hold the currency. Take the red pill.... The truth is all around you.

I think Gordo will do absolutely everything he can to protect the housing market until he gets the top job. The UK will pay for this strategy later next year. I reckon he might allow one more 1/4 point rise before Xmas. If he goes further, the cat is well and truly out of the bag. I'm selling up and getting ready for fiscal armageddon. This time next year, the UK economy will be exposed for what it is, a credit fuelled fantasy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Gordo will do absolutely everything he can to protect the housing market until he gets the top job. The UK will pay for this strategy later next year. I reckon he might allow one more 1/4 point rise before Xmas. If he goes further, the cat is well and truly out of the bag. I'm selling up and getting ready for fiscal armageddon. This time next year, the UK economy will be exposed for what it is, a credit fuelled fantasy.

I agree with you but can't pursuade myself to STR. I am concentrating on paying off my mortgage though.

Presumably if you are expecting fiscal armageddon you are putting all your money into gold?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm selling up and getting ready for fiscal armageddon. This time next year, the UK economy will be exposed for what it is, a credit fuelled fantasy.

If they dont act by November, or it becomes clear the miracle is being extended, I'm taking my deposit, and buying/flipping a couple of places to increase it. Ultimately it will go t1ts up, but there will be 6-9months more milage in this madness. I'll carry on renting, and certainly wouldnt risk buying somewhere longer term beyond flipping.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Alright Jack

You mean exports and/or consumer demand in general?

No, demand for the currency itself!

The value of something is dependent upon its supply (inflation) and demand.

Central banks inflate by definition and their interest rate policy targets 'demand' for the currency. If more people want to hold it, it becomes more valuable hence exchange rates go up hence import prices and domestic prices come down (they then pretend they have targetted inflation)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest mattsta1964

I agree with you but can't pursuade myself to STR. I am concentrating on paying off my mortgage though.

Presumably if you are expecting fiscal armageddon you are putting all your money into gold?

I didn't quite mean THAT bad! LOL!

You've got to diversify your investments anyway. I wouldn't plunge everything into gold.....YET

I've been making extra payments on my mortgage too but I realised it's still such a mountain to climb it just ain't worth it. You've gotta have a life after all. something HPI is preventing people from doing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Won't make any difference to me, Banks will still refuse to increase my saving rates.

Yorkshire Bank - 5.10% - Cahoot just raised their savings rate too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With CPI heading towards 3% the Bank should act in september.It is interesting that all the commentators take it for granted like parrots that rates will not rise until November.I assume that this is wishfull thinking from journalists with fat mortgages.It is unbelievable the tripe written by the likes of David Smith this Summer about the risk of inflation,how wrong they were.more worrying is the cretin who voted for no change on the Committee in August.Anyone know what f***ing planet is he from.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems number 1 priority is to keep house prices and consumer spending from falling.

Every HPC regular should carve this (backwards so they can read it) across their corneas when considering predictions of MPC behaviour. If we have a HPC then GB is finished politically therefore nothing will be spared in attempt to avoid it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest mattsta1964

Every HPC regular should carve this (backwards so they can read it) across their corneas when considering predictions of MPC behaviour. If we have a HPC then GB is finished politically therefore nothing will be spared in attempt to avoid it.

Couldn't have put it better meself! :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.