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Jason

Nationwide - August 06 +0.8% Mom, +6.6% Yoy

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"House price growth firm in August"

“The rise in interest rates in August, together with the expectation of another rise before the end of the year, naturally leads to comparisons being drawn between now and the last cycle of interest rate rises. The five increases between November 2003 and August 2004 led to a rapid fall in house price inflation, from over 20% in July 2004, to 2.3% by the time rates were reduced again in August 2005. While we expect base rates to reach 5% by the end of the year - above the peak of the last rising cycle - we do not expect the market to slow as sharply as before. There are three main reasons for this. First, current macroeconomic conditions suggest fewer increases in base rates; secondly, fixed mortgage rates have moved more gradually, and thirdly, demand, particularly from the investment sector, is likely to remain fairly supportive.
Edited by Jason

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What's the lag on the Nationwide report? It's Mortage Advances so the lag must be 3 months or so. So this tells us nothing about the impact of the rate rise and the numbers come from the Spring Bounce (Spring Surge?).

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Guest The_Oldie

Reading just the bold type headers....

Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Group Economist, said:

Housing market unlikely to slow as rapidly as in last rate rise cycle

Rate rises will affect sentiment …

… but the effect on mortgage costs is more modest than 2004

High immigration and supply issues support the market.

But risks do remain

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What's the lag on the Nationwide report? It's Mortage Advances so the lag must be 3 months or so. So this tells us nothing about the impact of the rate rise and the numbers come from the Spring Bounce (Spring Surge?).

the intrerst rate raise means these figures are even more useless than the usual nationwide spin <_<

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I think this news is quite encouraging since theyonly rose on a technicality.

They actually fell by £12.

Well spotted, I missed that.

July 06: £167,733

August 06: £167,721

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0.8% is a heck of a lot of real money. The press will report this widely whether they really fell or not, and joe public will think house prices are on the up again. More dire news.

Edited by simon99

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Well spotted, I missed that.

July 06: £167,733

August 06: £167,721

:lol::lol::lol:

You fell into the RB trap of attaching a link without actually reading the original version which often disagrees.

Your either not the only one or the BBC is really spin tastic.

How can they write an article about it without mentioning this seasonal adjustment?

:lol::lol::lol:

Edited by DONT PANIC !!! DONT PANIC !!!

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:lol::lol::lol:

You fell into the RB trap of attaching a link without actually reading the original version which often disagrees.

Your either not the only one or the BBC is really spin tastic.

How can they write an article about it without mentioning this seasonal adjustment?

:lol::lol::lol:

Yep, oh well. Having looked at the BBC article, no wonder they never mentioned July's figure. That would just confuse their readers! :lol:

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Since i buy things with real money rather than seasonally adjusted money I did a quick bit of maths using the nationwide index and (if you believe this index) the average HPI over the past 2 years is about 4.5% which is now less than the BOE rate.

Aug-04 £153,743

Aug-06 £167,721

Looking at the monthly figures an alternative headline could have been

"Nationwide index falls for first time since September 2005".

You take you position and choose your spin :)

Edited by DONT PANIC !!! DONT PANIC !!!

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“The rise in interest rates in August

Having put their mortgage rates up in August. Nationwide are dropping their fixed rate mortgage rates tomorrow.

so much for tightenning up lending?

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So the cost of a house is 12 quid lower in August than in July?

Crikey, this is it boys. The crash is underway.

:lol::lol:

well its got the vis worried enough to spin like mad trying to hide it!

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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