Jason Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 (edited) "House price growth firm in August" “The rise in interest rates in August, together with the expectation of another rise before the end of the year, naturally leads to comparisons being drawn between now and the last cycle of interest rate rises. The five increases between November 2003 and August 2004 led to a rapid fall in house price inflation, from over 20% in July 2004, to 2.3% by the time rates were reduced again in August 2005. While we expect base rates to reach 5% by the end of the year - above the peak of the last rising cycle - we do not expect the market to slow as sharply as before. There are three main reasons for this. First, current macroeconomic conditions suggest fewer increases in base rates; secondly, fixed mortgage rates have moved more gradually, and thirdly, demand, particularly from the investment sector, is likely to remain fairly supportive. Edited August 31, 2006 by Jason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The_Oldie Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug2006.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5300744.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Mainwaring Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 What's the lag on the Nationwide report? It's Mortage Advances so the lag must be 3 months or so. So this tells us nothing about the impact of the rate rise and the numbers come from the Spring Bounce (Spring Surge?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The_Oldie Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Reading just the bold type headers.... Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Group Economist, said: Housing market unlikely to slow as rapidly as in last rate rise cycle Rate rises will affect sentiment … … but the effect on mortgage costs is more modest than 2004 High immigration and supply issues support the market. But risks do remain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
65243 Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 What's the lag on the Nationwide report? It's Mortage Advances so the lag must be 3 months or so. So this tells us nothing about the impact of the rate rise and the numbers come from the Spring Bounce (Spring Surge?). the intrerst rate raise means these figures are even more useless than the usual nationwide spin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DONT PANIC !!! DONT PANIC !!! Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 I think this news is quite encouraging since theyonly rose on a technicality. They actually fell by £12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 I think this news is quite encouraging since theyonly rose on a technicality.They actually fell by £12. Well spotted, I missed that. July 06: £167,733 August 06: £167,721 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 (edited) 0.8% is a heck of a lot of real money. The press will report this widely whether they really fell or not, and joe public will think house prices are on the up again. More dire news. Edited August 31, 2006 by simon99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DONT PANIC !!! DONT PANIC !!! Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 (edited) Well spotted, I missed that. July 06: £167,733 August 06: £167,721 You fell into the RB trap of attaching a link without actually reading the original version which often disagrees. Your either not the only one or the BBC is really spin tastic. How can they write an article about it without mentioning this seasonal adjustment? Edited August 31, 2006 by DONT PANIC !!! DONT PANIC !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 You fell into the RB trap of attaching a link without actually reading the original version which often disagrees. Your either not the only one or the BBC is really spin tastic. How can they write an article about it without mentioning this seasonal adjustment? Yep, oh well. Having looked at the BBC article, no wonder they never mentioned July's figure. That would just confuse their readers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DONT PANIC !!! DONT PANIC !!! Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 (edited) Since i buy things with real money rather than seasonally adjusted money I did a quick bit of maths using the nationwide index and (if you believe this index) the average HPI over the past 2 years is about 4.5% which is now less than the BOE rate. Aug-04 £153,743 Aug-06 £167,721 Looking at the monthly figures an alternative headline could have been "Nationwide index falls for first time since September 2005". You take you position and choose your spin Edited August 31, 2006 by DONT PANIC !!! DONT PANIC !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snagger Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 “The rise in interest rates in August Having put their mortgage rates up in August. Nationwide are dropping their fixed rate mortgage rates tomorrow. so much for tightenning up lending? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brassfarthing Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 So the cost of a house is 12 quid lower in August than in July? Crikey, this is it boys. The crash is underway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
65243 Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 So the cost of a house is 12 quid lower in August than in July? Crikey, this is it boys. The crash is underway. well its got the vis worried enough to spin like mad trying to hide it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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