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Guest Shedfish

Real Estate Reality Check

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Guest Shedfish

-- Bump --

since the thread title got mangled i may fail in my quest to distract attention from the Creationist / mid-sized necked giraffe debate :) ... so apologies for the bump. it's a cracking document

but if i

Edited by Shedfish

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Guest Shedfish

..continue to -- bump --

thanks all - i think if i shamelessly publicise this link again i'll be forced to walk the plank :D

_________

the giraffe thing does have me flummoxed though. surely there can't be only one height of tree in giraffe-land...

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Guest Shedfish

I kind of formed a different conclusion to them

me too. a more logical concluding slide might have meant his last presentation...

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The denial stage of HPI seems to be over in the US as the "R" word is now in common useage among analysts:

http://www.industryweek.com/ReadArticle.aspx?ArticleID=12564

Merrill: Housing Recession Will Lower 2007 GDP

By John S. McClenahen
Aug. 28, 2006 -- Economists at Merrill Lynch & Co., New York, believe the U.S.
housing sector is now in recession
and is lowering its GDP growth forecast for the second half of 2006 and all of next year.
Merrill now believes the U.S. economy will grow at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 2% during the second six months of this year. Previously the financial services had projected a 2.5% rate.

"housing sector is now in recession" says it all. :)

Now, let's see how many months it takes to hit our shores with the ferocity it is striking OZ and the US. :o

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Recession now 50-50:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Business Spending May Languish, Raising Risk of U.S. Recession

By Matthew Benjamin
Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Like the title character of ``Waiting for Godot,'' the U.S. business spending spree many economists have been expecting just might not show up.
Forecasts of a moderate slowdown for the U.S. economy this year assume that businesses will accelerate their spending on equipment, helping compensate for any weakening in consumer demand. Now, some are questioning that scenario. If the business investment binge is a no-show, they say, a contraction in the economy becomes more likely.
``Most of the people forecasting a soft landing are counting on a boost from capital expenditures,'' says Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. in New York. ``I would be careful about that.''
She puts the odds of a recession at more than 50-50, ``and it could happen relatively quickly.''

Its going to hit us like a bolt out of the blue unless the media cut the cr*p and issue some warnings to the Sheeple to get ready.

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Guest The_Oldie

thanks Durch - you beat me to it - i've asked the mods to rename it to something like

Real Estate Reality Check

A presentation by David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

Done.

The sub title was too long and had to be shortened to "David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist".

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Guest Shedfish

Done.

The sub title was too long and had to be shortened to "David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist".

nice one!

-- Bump -- :ph34r:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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