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deano_54321

This Is Doing My Head In -

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Hello All,

I made a post on here very recently, as I have been tempted to enter the market due to my upcoming circumstances.

To breifly decribe my sitaution -

Living with Parents,

My girlfriend expecting to come to UK next year.

Want a house near where I live now to give her a familiar surrounding (family, friends etc)

We live in a reasonable area with probably below average crime etc.

Location - Lanesfield, Wolverhampton

OK, there have been quite a few houses for sale around here lately, especially in the two or three streets I am interested in. I thought "here we go, this is what we have been waiting for"

Bare in mind that there are usually not many houses for sale around here, and prices HAVE dropped in the last 12 months on the type of property I'm looking at (2 bed semi). There have been six of these houses for sale in the past (about) month, and 5 of them have sold within 2-3 weeks!

I feel that if I keep waiting I will lose the chance to get one of these properties.

I see lots of evidence on this site which holds me back from buying, and has done so for the last nearly 2 years. But, at the end of the day if the Banks are prepared to borrow people 5-6 over their annual wage, houses will keep selling, surely!?

I am really going to need convincing over the next couple of months. I have been really patient over the past two years, but it is now waring thin.

There is a funny video on this site where it says "stagnation or crash", and to be honest at the moment all we are seeing is stagnation. (this is shown in our very own HPC graph on the home page!)

But are we now on the brink of the crash? Will buying now be suicide? We believed so 3 or 4 years ago, but still nothing has happened! Im not silly enough to think that a HPC will happen overnight, BUT top economists believed that the crash should be well under way by now when I first started browsing this site over 2 years ago.

Do you guys understand why I'm frustrated!? I always value opinions on this site, which is why I am always here, but felt that if nothing significant happens ovr the next 12 - 18 months, nothing will happen - or worse, increases again!?

Thanks as always for your thoughts

Dean

Edited by deano_54321

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We are giving it another 12 months and then buying the cheapest property we can all squeeze into that we can easily afford, so no risk of loosing the little we have bought.

It is bloody ridiculas but at the end of the day we have rented for 2 years now with good and bad experiences and when we move it costs nearly £3k a time assuming we get back the full deposit.

No words of wisdom but I do understand :(

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The problem with "Booms" is that no-one can predict when they will start or when they end.

All I can tell you is this. In the US we had a boom which is now ending. The US went sideways for about a year or two then in a matter of weeks ask prices started to drop, and drop fast. I think it is because the kids are back at school and inclement weather is aproaching fast in the upper states. No one is talking about buying or letting any more.

Take a look at auction houses in the UK. I always think they have their finger on the pulse of the UK's property market. The number of houses for sale seems to be increasing every month. Allsop's Sept auction alone has almost 380 houses. This is up from Sept, 2005, and Sept 2004. The hammer price is also not what it was back in 2004 either.

Once the UK property market starts to unwind it is going to be very ugly, and much worse than the US in my opinion. The US has large areas that have no idea a property boom even took place, unlike the UK, where every nook and cranny seems to be affected.

Devon and Cornwell at 16 times earnings! Even if property halved there it would still be 8 times earnings.

Dot com all over again.

Edited by Pluto

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We are giving it another 12 months and then buying the cheapest property we can all squeeze into that we can easily afford, so no risk of loosing the little we have bought.

It is bloody ridiculas but at the end of the day we have rented for 2 years now with good and bad experiences and when we move it costs nearly £3k a time assuming we get back the full deposit.

No words of wisdom but I do understand :(

I think it is a really critical time for us NOT to buy, but it is so so hard with certain responsibilities on the way. I know I can afford the property NOW, but where will interest rates be in 5 years when my mortgage term ends??

OK, nobody has a magic wand, but I can see why people are panicing and entering the market.

How are we going to convince FTB's that they shouldn't buy now!?

If only we could spread the word.........

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I think the crash was put back a year due to the bank rate cut last August.

Now I think we will see decreasing HPI and with no prospects of rate cuts to halt the decline, due to persistant inflation.

I think the next 6 months are crucial - I have just renewed a 6 month short term lease and will wait and see what unfolds before making a decision.

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I think the primary reason to buy a house should always be as a place to live. If your going to live there for a long time, have family commitments, require a particular area then if you can get a good deal, can afford to the repayment then go ahead and buy. Enjoy the house and dont concern yourself with house prices ever again!!

Lots of people on here are looking to buy houses cheaply. To some extent me included. Im living abroad but want to go back to the UK at some point so im interested in house prices. BTL doesnt make sense now there are no capital gains. Personally i think that future house price will be fall in real terms since IR's are rising. The next few months could be interesting since IR's are expected to go up another notch in the UK and the US real estate market has just gone tits up which could affect the UK either by sentiment or an economic downturn.

It depends on your circumstances and how much you want your ideal house (just dont expect to make much money in real terms on it in the next few years).

I dont have many ties so may as well play the market or at least try.

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Guest mattsta1964

Hello All,

I made a post on here very recently, as I have been tempted to enter the market due to my upcoming circumstances.

To breifly decribe my sitaution -

Living with Parents,

My girlfriend expecting to come to UK next year.

Want a house near where I live now to give her a familiar surrounding (family, friends etc)

We live in a reasonable area with probably below average crime etc.

Location - Lanesfield, Wolverhampton

OK, there have been quite a few houses for sale around here lately, especially in the two or three streets I am interested in. I thought "here we go, this is what we have been waiting for"

Bare in mind that there are usually not many houses for sale around here, and prices HAVE dropped in the last 12 months on the type of property I'm looking at (2 bed semi). There have been six of these houses for sale in the past (about) month, and 5 of them have sold within 2-3 weeks!

I feel that if I keep waiting I will lose the chance to get one of these properties.

I see lots of evidence on this site which holds me back from buying, and has done so for the last nearly 2 years. But, at the end of the day if the Banks are prepared to borrow people 5-6 over their annual wage, houses will keep selling, surely!?

I am really going to need convincing over the next couple of months. I have been really patient over the past two years, but it is now waring thin.

There is a funny video on this site where it says "stagnation or crash", and to be honest at the moment all we are seeing is stagnation. (this is shown in our very own HPC graph on the home page!)

But are we now on the brink of the crash? Will buying now be suicide? We believed so 3 or 4 years ago, but still nothing has happened! Im not silly enough to think that a HPC will happen overnight, BUT top economists believed that the crash should be well under way by now when I first started browsing this site over 2 years ago.

Do you guys understand why I'm frustrated!? I always value opinions on this site, which is why I am always here, but felt that if nothing significant happens ovr the next 12 - 18 months, nothing will happen - or worse, increases again!?

Thanks as always for your thoughts

Dean

It's a very tough call to state definitively when a crash will happen! Christ! It's a gamble either way. I am planning to sell but I'm worried prices might continue to rise too and I might totally fekk myself over selling up. But I'm terrified to keep it too in case the market collapses. So I'm between a rock and a hard place too.

All you can do is look at what is happening away from this forum and ultimately make your own judgement. It's tough! Very tough knowing you are taking a risk and you don't know the outcome. All the indicators point to a crash....and sometime soon. Prices are falling in Sydney and some parts of the USA. But it isn't a full blown crash yet by any means. If the economic situation worsens in the USA with falling prices becoming more widespread, it's likely to spread here. I might take another year to 18 months for it to go truly tits up. Another 0.25% IR hike is highly likely before year end but this wont be sufficient by itself to precipitate a crash. I think the best advice is to watch very carefully what is happening in the US ecomomy. It's impossible to be certain but I'd place a bet the problems will start there and spread to Europe. There again, it might be some foreign policy disaster or another hurricane that really sets things in motion. Much more difficult to predict. Good luck with your decision. I hope things work out for you.

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It shocking to think that we can't even kick this Government out (as a repsonse to declining living standards) for the next 3-4 years...

...I'd love to see what inflation will be by then

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How are we going to convince FTB's that they shouldn't buy now!?

No need to convince them as they have been priced out.

It's the speculators that are bidding up property. Once they realize they are starting to lose money (due to low yields), and capital appreciation ain't what it was, they will abandon this market in droves.

Don't believe all this: "I'm in it for long haul" crap either. Once sentiment turns they go from being savvy investors to mugs left holding the bag, and no-one wants to be seen as a mug. It is worse than losing money.

Edited by Pluto

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Hi Dean,

Where's your girlfriend arriving from?

Well, just thinking, if she's from somewhere half decent compared to the UK (i.e. most of the rest of the planet) then why don't you go there?

Just a thought! :D

Good luck!!

Adam.

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I think it is a really critical time for us NOT to buy, but it is so so hard with certain responsibilities on the way. I know I can afford the property NOW, but where will interest rates be in 5 years when my mortgage term ends??

OK, nobody has a magic wand, but I can see why people are panicing and entering the market.

How are we going to convince FTB's that they shouldn't buy now!?

If only we could spread the word.........

I have given up trying to convince anyone that house prices will do anything other than rise, they look at you like you are a complete twit.

My nanny has just sold her flat for £20k less than she paid for it in 2002 and yet has still paid the asking price for some tiny little house because the sellers wouldn't budge and she loves it. I mean the eveidence is starring her in the face, it takes her 1.5 years to earn that £20k and yet she'll give it away that easily because your money is afe in property WTF ??? There is no logic anymore, none what so ever.

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There is remarkable consistency in the above replies….. apart from dnd who always seems to be worried about inflation.

Come on cheer up with your looks you can pull anytime!

Looks like he's suffered from hyperinflation... :lol:

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It is bloody ridiculas but at the end of the day we have rented for 2 years now with good and bad experiences and when we move it costs nearly £3k a time assuming we get back the full deposit.

Erm..... Got me there terrified ! Did you say it costs you 3K everytime you move ? I have the contents of a fully furnished 4 bed house and have just moved 4 months ago. Two men and a van - 4 hours work (with some help from me & my son), total cost 200 quid (admittedly only moved 1/2 mile up the road), but 3000 quid - are you sure ? As far as deposit is concerned, why on earth do you pay the last months rent and allow a landlord to decide if he wants to re-imburse you or not ? Just a tad naive don't you think ?

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I have given up trying to convince anyone that house prices will do anything other than rise, they look at you like you are a complete twit.

My nanny has just sold her flat for £20k less than she paid for it in 2002 and yet has still paid the asking price for some tiny little house because the sellers wouldn't budge and she loves it. I mean the eveidence is starring her in the face, it takes her 1.5 years to earn that £20k and yet she'll give it away that easily because your money is afe in property WTF ??? There is no logic anymore, none what so ever.

She has been brainwashed by:

+ Banks with their cheap money

+ Family

+ Freinds

+ TV

+ Newspapers

I can understand why folk are totally convinced that property never goes down. Who is left to advise her otherwise?

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Guest mattsta1964

There is remarkable consistency in the above replies….. apart from dnd who always seems to be worried about inflation.

Come on cheer up with your looks you can pull anytime!

If there's a run on the dollar, Sterling will be in deep trouble I reckon

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I have given up trying to convince anyone that house prices will do anything other than rise, they look at you like you are a complete twit.

My nanny has just sold her flat for £20k less than she paid for it in 2002 and yet has still paid the asking price for some tiny little house because the sellers wouldn't budge and she loves it. I mean the eveidence is starring her in the face, it takes her 1.5 years to earn that £20k and yet she'll give it away that easily because your money is afe in property WTF ??? There is no logic anymore, none what so ever.

Can you run that by me again?

She has just sold it for £20k less than she paid for it in 2002 but at the same time it took her 1.5 years to earn that £20k ;)

I guess you meant to say £20k more but either way its mid 2006 :o

Did she make a real return once fees etc are taken into account?

Edited by DONT PANIC !!! DONT PANIC !!!

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There is remarkable consistency in the above replies….. apart from dnd who always seems to be worried about inflation.

Come on cheer up with your looks you can pull anytime!

There is only one thing I can pull - when I can find it...

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If there's a run on the dollar, Sterling will be in deep trouble I reckon

There has already been a run on the dollar and sterling has held up.

The dollar may slide some more, but exports from the US will become cheaper which will narrow the deficit and prop the dollar up. The US is not a third world country that has no exports. Infact, I think the current administation is devaluing the dollar for this very reason.

What will sink sterling is the unemployment numbers and the deficit, not the dollar.

The higher sterling goes the worse the deficit becomes.

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Hi Dean,

Where's your girlfriend arriving from?

Well, just thinking, if she's from somewhere half decent compared to the UK (i.e. most of the rest of the planet) then why don't you go there?

Just a thought! :D

Good luck!!

Adam.

Hey Adam,

She is coming from Germany. I know, many people on here have actually fled to Germany to get out of this mess!

There are a few reasons for not going over there -

I only have basic German Language Knowledge.

I have a strong bond with my family.

Unfortunately, my Girlfriend has very little family left in Germany, and her father will retire next year, when he will probably move, leaving her needing to find a place of her own.

I have a reasonably good job (£22k p/a), which I am HOPING to hold on to through the difficult times ahead.

These are the reasons for me not going to Germany, and my girlfriend coming here. She is pretty fluent in English at conversation level, so her other language skills wold advance quickly.

Dean

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We are giving it another 12 months and then buying the cheapest property we can all squeeze into that we can easily afford, so no risk of loosing the little we have bought.

It is bloody ridiculas but at the end of the day we have rented for 2 years now with good and bad experiences and when we move it costs nearly £3k a time assuming we get back the full deposit.

No words of wisdom but I do understand :(

This development I have been watching by the sea front / main railway line at Dawlish, Devon, continues to move pitifully slowly. 5/23 still unsold, many months after completion. Still with express trains day and night, area going downhill fast and a severe flood risk, it is hardly surprising. And they are a rip off!

http://www.midashomes.co.uk/developments/g...s.asp?dev_id=35

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I have given up trying to convince anyone that house prices will do anything other than rise, they look at you like you are a complete twit.

My nanny has just sold her flat for £20k less than she paid for it in 2002 and yet has still paid the asking price for some tiny little house because the sellers wouldn't budge and she loves it. I mean the eveidence is starring her in the face, it takes her 1.5 years to earn that £20k and yet she'll give it away that easily because your money is afe in property WTF ??? There is no logic anymore, none what so ever.

And therein lies the truth....

You cannot treat house prices as a simple equation to be solved using interest rates, demand, money supply etc. Certainly, many aspects of the market are strongly influenced by this and in the long run it is arguable that economics will prevail - but this is in the very long run. As you stated "she loves it". How many times have we seen the amateur property speculators on TV buy some hovel and put in a £20k kitchen and mahogany flooring throughout despite the advice of the parasite presenter that it is in an investment and the tenants only need a chipboard facade painted white (I'm giving a precis of daytime TV here). The same sentiment that drives people to buy with their heart also drives them to panic when they are told buy now or you'll miss the boat.

If everybody bought on pure logic then we'd all drive a ford or a nissan. The fact that people will stretch themselves to buy a car that does 155mph even though they can never realistically drive it that fast shows that buying is not done on pure economics. If you watch the way the cars are sold they don't just quote the statistics like some form of top trumps, they paint a picture of what people will think of you if you own one of these (and many other emotions). Equally look at the emotive way that loans are actually sold - unhappy (dowdy) couple pouring over bills looking lost, a phone call later they are happy and relived that their worries are solved. But look at the reality, you were an idiot with money before, you called one person who told you we deal with idiots like you , and when you put the phone down your were convinced you did the right thing.

People are not logical or rational when they buy property.

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And therein lies the truth....

You cannot treat house prices as a simple equation to be solved using interest rates, demand, money supply etc. Certainly, many aspects of the market are strongly influenced by this and in the long run it is arguable that economics will prevail - but this is in the very long run. As you stated "she loves it". How many times have we seen the amateur property speculators on TV buy some hovel and put in a £20k kitchen and mahogany flooring throughout despite the advice of the parasite presenter that it is in an investment and the tenants only need a chipboard facade painted white (I'm giving a precis of daytime TV here). The same sentiment that drives people to buy with their heart also drives them to panic when they are told buy now or you'll miss the boat.

If everybody bought on pure logic then we'd all drive a ford or a nissan. The fact that people will stretch themselves to buy a car that does 155mph even though they can never realistically drive it that fast shows that buying is not done on pure economics. If you watch the way the cars are sold they don't just quote the statistics like some form of top trumps, they paint a picture of what people will think of you if you own one of these (and many other emotions). Equally look at the emotive way that loans are actually sold - unhappy (dowdy) couple pouring over bills looking lost, a phone call later they are happy and relived that their worries are solved. But look at the reality, you were an idiot with money before, you called one person who told you we deal with idiots like you , and when you put the phone down your were convinced you did the right thing.

People are not logical or rational when they buy property.

Doesnt this just mean marketing helps sales.

People are never rational in a bubble and thats what makes it a bubble.

Reality comes later but its forgotten by the time the next bubble comes along.

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This development I have been watching by the sea front / main railway line at Dawlish, Devon, continues to move pitifully slowly. 5/23 still unsold, many months after completion. Still with express trains day and night, area going downhill fast and a severe flood risk, it is hardly surprising. And they are a rip off!

http://www.midashomes.co.uk/developments/g...s.asp?dev_id=35

Oh look, you can buy a £241,950 apartment and rent it back to the developer for £700 a month. Looks like the deal of the century - 3.47% gross yield. Form an orderly queue please, no pushing.

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And therein lies the truth....

You cannot treat house prices as a simple equation to be solved using interest rates, demand, money supply etc. Certainly, many aspects of the market are strongly influenced by this and in the long run it is arguable that economics will prevail - but this is in the very long run. As you stated "she loves it". How many times have we seen the amateur property speculators on TV buy some hovel and put in a £20k kitchen and mahogany flooring throughout despite the advice of the parasite presenter that it is in an investment and the tenants only need a chipboard facade painted white (I'm giving a precis of daytime TV here). The same sentiment that drives people to buy with their heart also drives them to panic when they are told buy now or you'll miss the boat.

If everybody bought on pure logic then we'd all drive a ford or a nissan. The fact that people will stretch themselves to buy a car that does 155mph even though they can never realistically drive it that fast shows that buying is not done on pure economics. If you watch the way the cars are sold they don't just quote the statistics like some form of top trumps, they paint a picture of what people will think of you if you own one of these (and many other emotions). Equally look at the emotive way that loans are actually sold - unhappy (dowdy) couple pouring over bills looking lost, a phone call later they are happy and relived that their worries are solved. But look at the reality, you were an idiot with money before, you called one person who told you we deal with idiots like you , and when you put the phone down your were convinced you did the right thing.

People are not logical or rational when they buy property.

That's what some bears don't understand. That not everyone else has the same knowledge of economics as most do on this site. If they love something and can afford it they will buy it. It may mean making lifestyle changes or taking a second job but homeownership is a priority for many.

Getting the keys to your own home is the happiest 5 minutes of your life, followed by a hallway of bills :angry:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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