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Realistbear

Mr. Bean Says The Downward Pressure On Prices Is Over

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http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html

REUTERS

Bean says globalization salad days are over

26/08/2006 18:46

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) -
Rapid global economic integration may have put downward pressure on prices in the recent past, but that disinflationary cycle may be over
, Bank of England chief economist Charles Bean said on Saturday.
"Of course winds can be changeable and ... the process may go into reverse at some point. I think to an extent that is already happening," Bean told a gathering of central bankers and academics here.
"There is no everlasting banquet under the sun," Bean said at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium.
He pointed to the rise in oil prices as global demand has increased, calling it the "flip side" of globalization.
That meant policymakers should not just focus on measures of inflation that exclude energy costs, which are often thought to offer a less-volatile and clearer picture of underlying price trends.
The focus on core inflation was "highly suspect," Bean said, because it stripped out the negative element of high energy prices while retaining the positive of falling goods prices, Bean said.

If Bean is right this is very serious indeed and will have a huge impact on IR going forward. To ever think that oil was not going to upset the Miracle Economy was naivete in its extreme form. Gordon's HPI-MEW banquest in the sun is about to get rained on and it ain't water thats coming down.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html

REUTERS

Bean says globalization salad days are over

26/08/2006 18:46

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) -
Rapid global economic integration may have put downward pressure on prices in the recent past, but that disinflationary cycle may be over
, Bank of England chief economist Charles Bean said on Saturday.
"Of course winds can be changeable and ... the process may go into reverse at some point. I think to an extent that is already happening," Bean told a gathering of central bankers and academics here.
"There is no everlasting banquet under the sun," Bean said at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium.
He pointed to the rise in oil prices as global demand has increased, calling it the "flip side" of globalization.
That meant policymakers should not just focus on measures of inflation that exclude energy costs, which are often thought to offer a less-volatile and clearer picture of underlying price trends.
The focus on core inflation was "highly suspect," Bean said, because it stripped out the negative element of high energy prices while retaining the positive of falling goods prices, Bean said.

If Bean is right this is very serious indeed and will have a huge impact on IR going forward. To ever think that oil was not going to upset the Miracle Economy was naivete in its extreme form. Gordon's HPI-MEW banquest in the sun is about to get rained on and it ain't water thats coming down.

The UK's good economic run looks to be coming to an end, but its still much better than most of europe.

I'd prefer a HPI-MEW banquet than socialist europes double digit unemployment.

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http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html

REUTERS

Bean says globalization salad days are over

26/08/2006 18:46

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) -
Rapid global economic integration may have put downward pressure on prices in the recent past, but that disinflationary cycle may be over
, Bank of England chief economist Charles Bean said on Saturday.
Talk about money for nothing and your chicks for free. Last time I went to Jackson Hole it was full of tourists next to the Tetons/Yellowstone National Park.

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Talk about money for nothing and your chicks for free. Last time I went to Jackson Hole it was full of tourists next to the Tetons/Yellowstone National Park.

Its a nice place and changes into a very posh ski resort during winter. With its small private airport lots of celebs go for a days skiing.

Edited by DONT PANIC !!! DONT PANIC !!!

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The UK's good economic run looks to be coming to an end, but its still much better than most of europe.

I'd prefer a HPI-MEW banquet than socialist europes double digit unemployment.

Both French and German unemployment are falling, France has fallen to 9%, and Germany to 8.2%. Germanys unemployment is falling at a rate of 2.6% per year

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5270916.stm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/st...1856801,00.html

Ours is 5.5% rising at 1.2% per year

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...hA&refer=uk

One year from now if the trend continues unemployment here will be 6.7%, in Germany it will be 5.6%, France 7.8%

Edited by Della

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Both French and German unemployment are falling, France has fallen to 9%, and Germany to 8.2%. Germanys unemployment is falling at a rate of 2.6% per year

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5270916.stm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/st...1856801,00.html

Ours is 5.5% rising at 1.2% per year

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...hA&refer=uk

One year from now if the trend continues unemployment here will be 6.7%, in Germany it will be 5.6%, France 7.8%

I know that the eurpeans economies are improving but they have been shit for years and is why lots of educated europeans have moved to London. Particularly the french but also less educated eastern european tradesmen. There are estimated to be 50,000 swedes in London which makes it about the 8th largest swedish town, and with the election coming up some parties are using the UK as a model of reform.

Im just saying that if it was a choice of MEW or going through what the euro economies have id have MEW and HPI.

Id also be wary of extrapolting unemployment figures since if the US goes down both the UK and euro zone will also be affected.

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Both French and German unemployment are falling, France has fallen to 9%, and Germany to 8.2%. Germanys unemployment is falling at a rate of 2.6% per year

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5270916.stm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/st...1856801,00.html

Ours is 5.5% rising at 1.2% per year

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...hA&refer=uk

One year from now if the trend continues unemployment here will be 6.7%, in Germany it will be 5.6%, France 7.8%

different eceonomic cycle folks,that's all.....the pendulum has swung from anglosaxon consumerism to vorsprung durch teknik!!!!

those that realise this and invest accordingly will do ok,those that hang on to the notion that our economy is impervious to such changes(BTL etc),are going to suffer horribly.We could well see a re-run of the late 70's and 80's here...complete with mass unemployment for starters...then a sterling crisis,coupled with the NHS(miners)strike in the not too distant future.

it must also be noted that france,germany and japan also have consumers that like gadgets......this sector has been sadly lacking in their economies for years but it looks like it is being stimulated.They don't just export to the US,there's a big wide world out there and some of their technology is world-class,we don't have a monopoly on it!!!!

Edited by oracle

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The UK's good economic run looks to be coming to an end, but its still much better than most of europe.

I'd prefer a HPI-MEW banquet than socialist europes double digit unemployment.

The only reason the UK has done well is through borrowing, which can only go so far. If France and Germany had had an equivalent borrowing binge their economies would have outclassed ours by a mile.

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The only reason the UK has done well is through borrowing, which can only go so far. If France and Germany had had an equivalent borrowing binge their economies would have outclassed ours by a mile.

Not really, IMO. Many companies in the UK have operations overseas and trade overseas, they will of course beneift from any improvement in the global economy.

Kind of old hat this article, this is what King stated a while back. Basically we may have low inflation now, but the situation will eventually unwind. Inetersting reading the article on Reuters;

The focus on core inflation was "highly suspect," Bean said, because it strips out the negative element of high energy prices while retaining the positive of falling goods prices.

He added that central banks risked damaging their credibility as inflation fighters if they are seen to accommodate "terms of trade" shocks, such as the current run of high oil prices, by letting inflation run high for a while.

So what to do in an inflationary environment? Buy assets such as property, shares and the like? Bean seems to think the chances of a wage spiral happening are small, I would agree. But I reckon wage inflation at the moment is good enough for the cunning to stay ahead of the game.

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Guest Alright Jack

The UK's good economic run looks to be coming to an end, but its still much better than most of europe.

I'd prefer a HPI-MEW banquet than socialist europes double digit unemployment.

Just because the rest of Europe don't lie about unemployment to quite the same extent as Gordon Brown does.

Check this out:-

http://www.thebusinessonline.com/Stories.a...2E-D07EB5AA1CEE

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Mr Bean is now the pot calling the kettle black:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14543326/

BoE chief economist hits at US inflation measure

Financial Times

By Krishna Guha in Jackson Hole

Updated: 2:11 p.m. ET Aug. 27, 2006

The US Federal Reserve is wrong to focus on core measures of inflation that exclude energy prices, Charles Bean, chief economist at the Bank of England, has suggested.
It should focus instead on headline inflation, which is much higher, he argued. Including energy and food costs, US consumer price inflation is running at an annual rate of 4.1 per cent, against 2.7 per cent for core inflation.
Mr Bean told the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium at the weekend that energy prices were rising for the same reason the price of many manufactured goods were falling
: the rise of China and other emerging market economies. Since both price trends had a common cause, he said it makes little sense to focus "on measures of core inflation that strip out energy prices while not stripping out falling goods prices as well."
Mr Bean did not mention the Fed by name but his implication was clear. Fed officials, including chairman Ben Bernanke, typically talk about measures of core inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices, which they say better predict future headline inflation.
Central bankers in Europe take a sharply different approach. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank put greater emphasis on talk of headline inflation, which includes the immediate "first round" effect of rising energy prices.
The Fed has tended to treat the rise in oil prices as a step change to a new equilibrium price level, which in itself does not generate ongoing inflationary pressure. It focuses on trying to prevent the "pass through" of higher energy costs to consumers in the form of higher prices for other goods and services.
But the Bank of England and the ECB increasingly take the view that energy prices may be on a long-term upward trend, driven by industrialisation and urbanisation in China and India.

Ben "Big Ben" Bernanke could justifiably tell Mr. Bean to sort his own house out first and stop lying to the UK public that inflation is dropping to 2.4%. Gordon's magic basket of CPI items weights energy to the point that it might as well be excluded. Silly billies. :angry:

Edited by Realistbear

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Mr Bean is now the pot calling the kettle black:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14543326/

BoE chief economist hits at US inflation measure

I think he should be careful telling the US how to run its finances given that the UK is on a very slippery slope right now.

It is my impression that the US has been left in a mess after Greenspan held interest rates artificially low for too long. These pendulum swings in the US rate can't be easy to steer. I find an uncanny similarity between Brown and Greenspan in that the majority of people think they are our saviours.

I also think the USA is straight talking about the problems, unlike Brown who just steals off pensions and oil giants to defer the problems.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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