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BubblesBurst

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As a matter of interest, just how many Owner Occupiers on here are waiting eagerly for a 40-50% crash in the housing market?

This would bring us back to a realistic value for the plot of land we own and the bricks and mortar built upon it.

I am interested as other homeowners just don't get it!

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As a matter of interest, just how many Owner Occupiers on here are waiting eagerly for a 40-50% crash in the housing market?

This would bring us back to a realistic value for the plot of land we own and the bricks and mortar built upon it.

I am interested as other homeowners just don't get it!

You're assuming that a 40-50% crash will actually help anyone. If we had this I suspect you wont be getting a mortgage any time soon, you won't have a job and any saving you had will be severly depleted by keeping your head above water.

IMO, the best thing that could happen is we inflate our way out of it. That way we keep our jobs, savings and the rot will disappear over time. If in nominal term, the markets was flatish over a period of about 5 years, wage inflation about 4-5% it could be a result. Then we could all play kabadi and be 'appy.

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IMO, the best thing that could happen is we inflate our way out of it.

great for everyone who borrowed too much to play the game.

TERRIBLE for anyone with savings.

So what you are effectively saying is that society should reward reckless speculators / gamblers, and penalise the prudent saver.

Or have I missed your REAL point??? You also seem to overlook the fact that it is WAGE inflation that can 'inflate away' the problem, and that looks unlikely in the new world order - our workers are already uncompetitive globally.

Edited by PropertyGuru

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great for everyone who borrowed too much to play the game.

TERRIBLE for anyone with savings.

So what you are effectively saying is that society should reward reckless speculators / gamblers, and penalise the prudent saver.

Or have I missed your REAL point???

That IS NL's real point.

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great for everyone who borrowed too much to play the game.

TERRIBLE for anyone with savings.

So what you are effectively saying is that society should reward reckless speculators / gamblers, and penalise the prudent saver.

Or have I missed your REAL point??? You also seem to overlook the fact that it is WAGE inflation that can 'inflate away' the problem, and that looks unlikely in the new world order - our workers are already uncompetitive globally.

You are missing what is actually happening;

Wage inflation IS happening, did you check the GDP data?

Savers are getting screwed over, has anyone here had an IR increase for their savings account? If so, let me know where you save!

The prudent are being shafted (always have IMO), the cash in the bank is being devalued. But in the 40-50% crash scenario, very few would win. Of course many people on HPC seem to think that they will be immune to any economic shock, they have an invisible shield to protect them against tight lending restrictions and mass unemployment.

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Had you suggested a 10-20% correction then yes.

But a 40-50% decrease would basically start a recession which is the last thing I want. No job = no home.

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I sold in 2004 so I'm not a OO but... I'd like a huge crash.

We need to redress the social balance. We have deprived our young from owning a home. We allow 'key-workers' to have advantages over everyone else because the situation is out of control. To my simple way of thinking anyone paying tax is a key worker. If you deprive the 4 workers of a home of their own to give it to the key-worker what sort of message is that. We have are brightest and most productive people leaving for Perth and elsewhere in the world because it's the only way to move up the ladder.

So if the crash is big enough we will remove the government and hopefully destroy a few banks with it. Without both these institutions we wouldn't have this mess in the first place. The lessons learnt best are those learnt the hard way.

We need to get back to hard work rather than this easy money MEWing business. Truism: there's no such think as a free lunch.

Business will suffer but thank the government for that. All the government needed to do was tax the BTL landlords effectively rather than constantly chasing entrepreneurs like me with draconian 'grey' tax rules.

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I sold in 2004 so I'm not a OO but... I'd like a huge crash.

We need to redress the social balance. We have deprived our young from owning a home. We allow 'key-workers' to have advantages over everyone else because the situation is out of control. To my simple way of thinking anyone paying tax is a key worker. If you deprive the 4 workers of a home of their own to give it to the key-worker what sort of message is that. We have are brightest and most productive people leaving for Perth and elsewhere in the world because it's the only way to move up the ladder.

So if the crash is big enough we will remove the government and hopefully destroy a few banks with it. Without both these institutions we wouldn't have this mess in the first place. The lessons learnt best are those learnt the hard way.

We need to get back to hard work rather than this easy money MEWing business. Truism: there's no such think as a free lunch.

Business will suffer but thank the government for that. All the government needed to do was tax the BTL landlords effectively rather than constantly chasing entrepreneurs like me with draconian 'grey' tax rules.

Wow. Your solution to helping the young in mass unemployment and destroying the banks. Anyone see the flaw here? If the banking sector is nuked, where are you or the young going to get the mortgage from!!!?

:blink:

Any remaining banks will have such tight lending criteria that the fortunate youngsters who have a job, will not be able to finance their purchase.

What will happen in your scenario, is that the rich will probably be able to take greater advantage tof the situation and buy the assets cheap further compounding the young misery.

Finally, the young are in the situation due to their own making. Tough sh*t, but we know that's the truth. I can't imagine many are interested in politics or economics and therefore have allwoed themselves to get fully rolled over by NL.

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Had you suggested a 10-20% correction then yes.

But a 40-50% decrease would basically start a recession which is the last thing I want. No job = no home.

I don't think 10-20% would make much of a difference to many people.

40% off present prices is where we should be now if prices had increased normally.

Reducing the differentials in future purchases would keep the market ticking over nicely allowing FTB's to purchase and others to trade up!

Without this reduction it's stagnation.

Personally I'd be happy to see a 50% drop. We need a good recession. ....It has to come, no point delaying the inevitable any more.

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Wow. Your solution to helping the young in mass unemployment and destroying the banks. Anyone see the flaw here? If the banking sector is nuked, where are you or the young going to get the mortgage from!!!?

:blink:

Any remaining banks will have such tight lending criteria that the fortunate youngsters who have a job, will not be able to finance their purchase.

What will happen in your scenario, is that the rich will probably be able to take greater advantage tof the situation and buy the assets cheap further compounding the young misery.

Finally, the young are in the situation due to their own making. Tough sh*t, but we know that's the truth. I can't imagine many are interested in politics or economics and therefore have allwoed themselves to get fully rolled over by NL.

Young people have been forced into this situation by desperation and falsehood. The government have the power to protect us from self-cert and have the power to direct taxation at BTL.

These banks haven't even had a huge stealth tax. Why's that then? The government and the banks are screwing us all over.

There's a recession coming so we will find out what really happens soon. ;)

Edited by Xurbia

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Profits on BTL are already taxable

Yes but it's also very tax efficient. There could be a rising scale based on the number of properties owned.

The Inland Revenue are able to develop the most impossible rules for company cars, working away from home and using office computers at home but BTL gets off lightly.

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You are missing what is actually happening;

Wage inflation IS happening, did you check the GDP data?

link please so I can see 'what is actually happening'. As far as I'm aware, wage inflation has been nominal the last 10 years.

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I am a OO and i would love a 50% or more crash,

I think the recession is happening now, everywhere i go, people are saying they are not doing well. money is tight, everything is getting more expensive.

i think the crash is starting

wonderful,

:lol::lol::lol:

What planet are you on? GDP up, UP I tell you man! Up 0.8 on the quarter, 2.6% YoY, we are not anyway near a recesion at the moment. These links may help you;

Investopedia

GDP release

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:lol::lol::lol:

What planet are you on? GDP up, UP I tell you man! Up 0.8 on the quarter, 2.6% YoY, we are not anyway near a recesion at the moment. These links may help you;

Investopedia

GDP release

Wait for January/February 2007. There was a huge slowdown at the beginning of this year. I don't need the ONS figures to tell me; every person I deal with was telling me!!! It's the good thing about working at the sharp end of things.

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Yes but it's also very tax efficient. There could be a rising scale based on the number of properties owned.

The Inland Revenue are able to develop the most impossible rules for company cars, working away from home and using office computers at home but BTL gets off lightly.

Surely investment yield is the natural regulator for the BTL market. Why does it need to have a special tax?

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As a matter of interest, just how many Owner Occupiers on here are waiting eagerly for a 40-50% crash in the housing market?

FTB OO NWE (NOT waiting eagerly)

Jesus, you'd need more than a spoonful of sugar to make that medicine go down. I bought about a year ago at 3.25 x single income which in this day and age is v. conservative (plus swmbo earns a full-time wage). At current prices, fairly static over 12 months, I'd get my deposit back, 10% fall I'd lose the money I'd spent making the place a home in the past year, 20% fall I'd lose that and the deposit but be satisfied that my next home would be affordable. More than 20%? I'll deal with that if it happens but a 40-50% fall would be bad news. At the time we bought I was fairly sure there would be an imminent correction but I was happy to buy as buying in my area compared well to renting and I was sure we could ride out the storm and come out the other side in no worse shape than we started. A year later and I'm more worried that it hasn't happenend yet. The longer it takes, I feel the correction will be longer and harder.

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Savers are getting screwed over, has anyone here had an IR increase for their savings account? If so, let me know where you save!

The Smile cash ISA is increasing 0.25% to 4.75% on 1st Sept.

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Any remaining banks will have such tight lending criteria that the fortunate youngsters who have a job, will not be able to finance their purchase.

I don't think the HPI problem needs an apocalyptic wrecking of the banking system. We just need to follow the French system and install a rigorous 3-3.5x earnings and abolition of the BTL model mortgage.

Tight lending criteria will have exactly the effect is has there - sensible prices (it's ONLY the hot-spots in France and Paris

that have anything approaching absurd pricing).

What will happen in your scenario, is that the rich will probably be able to take greater advantage tof the situation and buy the assets cheap further compounding the young misery.

I don't believe this for a second.

There are the rich - the really rich, most of whom who are not energetic in building up property empires.

There are the 'rich' - the principle current nuisance, who are enjoying the new 'wealth', previously known as debt. They will fall by the wayside. Very good riddance.

Prices, in particular will be set as usual by those needing to sell and by available money for borrowing.

Finally, the young are in the situation due to their own making. Tough sh*t, but we know that's the truth. I can't imagine many are interested in politics or economics and therefore have allwoed themselves to get fully rolled over by NL.

I suppose there's some truth in this but I'm pretty sure that the largest chunk of those who put NL in power are OOs who like the idea of their houses climbing inexorably in 'value'. We know that relentless HPI is a bad thing so why not saddle them (the OOs) with some responsibility for trying to understand the world they live in.

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Surely investment yield is the natural regulator for the BTL market. Why does it need to have a special tax?

To deter people from buying up the whole market as a pension!!!!!!!! I believe in supply and demand, trust me, but we've got the government meddling with key-worker schemes and BTL restricting supply. I also want double council tax on holiday homes.

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A year later and I'm more worried that it hasn't happenend yet. The longer it takes, I feel the correction will be longer and harder.

Indeed it will - with a vengeance.

Be worried. Be VERY worried.

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Wait for January/February 2007. There was a huge slowdown at the beginning of this year. I don't need the ONS figures to tell me; every person I deal with was telling me!!! It's the good thing about working at the sharp end of things.

Too right, i do not need them to tell me anything, when i get suppliers phoning me 4 times a week asking if i want/need anything, two years ago they never ever phoned me, they tell me about how bad things are, and i deal with companies for all over the UK.

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Too right, i do not need them to tell me anything, when i get suppliers phoning me 4 times a week asking if i want/need anything, two years ago they never ever phoned me, they tell me about how bad things are, and i deal with companies for all over the UK.

It was completely dead at the beginning of the year. Lots of associates were talking of laying off staff. Then it picked up a bit but it was clear that all was not well. It is quiet after Xmas for the obvious reasons but not this quiet!

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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