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Wall St Journal: Biggest H P C In 40-50 Years

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http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/m...25-nutting.html

Wall Street Journal

Housing Market Will Deflate

Economy, Economist Says

By Rex Nutting
From MarketWatch
The United States is headed for a recession that will be "much nastier, deeper and more protracted" than the 2001 recession, says Nouriel Roubini, president of Roubini Global Economics.
Writing on his blog Wednesday, Roubini repeated his call that the U.S. would be in recession in 2007, arguing that the collapse of housing would bring down the rest of the economy.
Roubini wrote after the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that sales of existing homes fell 4.1% in July, while inventories soared to a 13-year high and prices flattened out on a year-over-year basis.
"
This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades:
every housing indictor is in free fall, including now housing prices," Roubini said. The decline in investment in the housing sector will exceed the drop in investment when the Nasdaq collapsed in 2000 and 2001, he said.

Its going to be a nice one. :lol: *

________________

* :o

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Errr...

This recession is the 2001 recession.

AG delayed it because of the war, voters don't tolerate far off wars during times of recession.

By delaying it he forced the imbalances to run longer and deeper, so the recession will be longer and deeper.

He made the correct decision for the good of his country.

He could not allow economic difficulties to be attributed to terrorists, else every terrorist attack could potentially lead to a slump, as people would have associated the two.

The terrorist would have won with the first blow.

The thing is 9/11 did not cause a downturn, the dotcom crash caused the downturn. 9/11 was an attempt to steal the blame.

It was a good attempt, but AG delayed the downturn so at the time there was very little blame to place. Now five years later, we can have the correction, without associating it to terrorists. Thing is we have to have the dotcom correction and the housing correction in a double dose, so yeah it's gonna be tough.

And yeah, it will affect us all.

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Errr...

This recession is the 2001 recession.

AG delayed it because of the war, voters don't tolerate far off wars during times of recession.

By delaying it he forced the imbalances to run longer and deeper, so the recession will be longer and deeper.

He made the correct decision for the good of his country.

He could not allow economic difficulties to be attributed to terrorists, else every terrorist attack could potentially lead to a slump, as people would have associated the two.

The terrorist would have won with the first blow.

The thing is 9/11 did not cause a downturn, the dotcom crash caused the downturn. 9/11 was an attempt to steal the blame.

It was a good attempt, but AG delayed the downturn so at the time there was very little blame to place. Now five years later, we can have the correction, without associating it to terrorists. Thing is we have to have the dotcom correction and the housing correction in a double dose, so yeah it's gonna be tough.

And yeah, it will affect us all.

Wise words, I usually choke on whatever I'm eating when I hear some numpty on the tellybox going about the "era of low interest rates" that the BoE taking has heralded.

What a joke, look at the graph and the correlation to 9/11 and DotCom... do these "economists" believe a word they are saying.

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I know some recent FTBs would get burnt alive in a crash but if only we could have one and NOt have a recession........

I think its impossible though...........Houses halving in value would do everyone a favour.....

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Thanks RB.

If your gonna post negative news over the coming weeks / months and years I think we should all chip in and buy you a very comfortable chair.

The smoke will be coming off you keyboard. :D:D:D

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Thanks RB.

If your gonna post negative news over the coming weeks / months and years I think we should all chip in and buy you a very comfortable chair.

The smoke will be coming off you keyboard. :D:D:D

I am getting that distinct feeling we are headed right into the HPC storm so batton down the hatches, splice the mainbrace coz its about to get choppy! :)

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I am getting that distinct feeling we are headed right into the HPC storm so batton down the hatches, splice the mainbrace coz its about to get choppy! :)

Yes and I would love to see Bliar and Gordo Keel hauled !!!

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Yes and I would love to see Bliar and Gordo Keel hauled !!!

I can't deny I see a HPC on the horizon. Oh lordy I wouldn't be buying now if I was a FTB, lemmings have a much better chance of survival than these poor fools.

What I want to know is when do you think we will see the first use of the word crash in the mainstream press?

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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060825/tapped_out_consumer.html?.v=4

AP

Consumers Cutting Back Beyond Frills

Friday August 25, 2:29 pm ET

By Christopher Leonard, AP Business Writer

Week's Business: Housing and Fuel Strain Shoppers, Consumers Cutting Back

ST. LOUIS (AP) -- Fresh evidence shows that high energy prices and sagging home values are pinching the main driver of the of the U.S. economy -- the Average Joe's wallet.
Retailers and economists say many Americans are waiting to buy big-ticket items and cutting back on frills. Homeowners are shelving plans to remodel kitchens. Families are dining out less and tightening their budgets..../
Meanwhile this week's housing numbers show that the real estate market is likely to decline further as the number of unsold homes grows, further pressuring prices downward.
"I rarely find myself in a position where a single data release really snaps my head around," Miller said. "I'm beginning to question my assumption that this housing correction will continue to occur in a controlled fashion."
......./
Beyond the psychological impact, lower home values cut into consumers' ability to borrow money, Hoffman said. Since the real estate boom started, homeowners borrowed against the increased value of their houses.
Losing that borrowing power could take tens of billions of dollars out of the U.S. economy this year, although that remains a tiny fraction of overall spending, Hoffman said. The shift is likely to have the biggest effect on home improvement retailers, as people scale back investment in their houses, he said...../

All of the hallmarks of recession and a classic house price crash. 6 months on and our sheeple will be doing the same thing for exactly the same reasons. Don't forget, on a per capita basis, we are more in debt than the average US resident. :o

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Though I'd like to believe it. Its nothing a few trade restrictions or a war wouldn't sort out.

I think you're underestimating the power of the leading global economies, they'll always pull the strings

to make sure they get out of it. E.g. 2001

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the crash will cause the recession and not vice versa - this is what happened in the 80s / 90s

we actually need the economy to keep strengthening through business as we need IRs to rise (as has been said on many other posts)

if we have a recession first then IRs won't rise and hp won't come down - IRs were cut for a reason i.e. to avoid recession, that's why we need strength

the U.S. may well head for recession now the housing market is fkd but it is fkd because the economy strengthened and IRs rose back to near where they should be

can we also remember that when we talk about retail recession, we are starting from a false base i.e. as per the graph of house prices, retail is well above trend, so even if it falls, it is only falling back to where it should be

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can we also remember that when we talk about retail recession, we are starting from a false base i.e. as per the graph of house prices, retail is well above trend, so even if it falls, it is only falling back to where it should be

Yes and no.

Yes because present house selling in the US are still on historic high and even return to standard shape of property market means indead crash.

No becasue since times of "normal" US property market another things changed.

Trade deficit soared.

Budget deficit soared.

Debt level soared.

So, as ancient Greek said, we cannot enter two times to the same river. With such bad fundamentals, US economy would be unable to withstand such return to "normal" property market.

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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060825/tapped_out_consumer.html?.v=4

AP

Consumers Cutting Back Beyond Frills

Friday August 25, 2:29 pm ET

By Christopher Leonard, AP Business Writer

Week's Business: Housing and Fuel Strain Shoppers, Consumers Cutting Back

ST. LOUIS (AP) -- Fresh evidence shows that high energy prices and sagging home values are pinching the main driver of the of the U.S. economy -- the Average Joe's wallet.
Retailers and economists say many Americans are waiting to buy big-ticket items and cutting back on frills. Homeowners are shelving plans to remodel kitchens. Families are dining out less and tightening their budgets..../
Meanwhile this week's housing numbers show that the real estate market is likely to decline further as the number of unsold homes grows, further pressuring prices downward.
"I rarely find myself in a position where a single data release really snaps my head around," Miller said. "I'm beginning to question my assumption that this housing correction will continue to occur in a controlled fashion."
......./
Beyond the psychological impact, lower home values cut into consumers' ability to borrow money, Hoffman said. Since the real estate boom started, homeowners borrowed against the increased value of their houses.
Losing that borrowing power could take tens of billions of dollars out of the U.S. economy this year, although that remains a tiny fraction of overall spending, Hoffman said. The shift is likely to have the biggest effect on home improvement retailers, as people scale back investment in their houses, he said...../

All of the hallmarks of recession and a classic house price crash. 6 months on and our sheeple will be doing the same thing for exactly the same reasons. Don't forget, on a per capita basis, we are more in debt than the average US resident. :o

and look at the economies that are expanding to take up the slack!!...germany and japan.

neither of these two has been subject to the ridiculous boom in house prices,they were too scared....all the more reason for them to improve.

when money comes out of property it needs a new home.

risk vs reward tells you that the US is a risky place to invest at the moment.

the housing market is weakening

the currency is weakening

the defecits are staggering.

...this has all the hallmarks of 1990 japan!!!!!

....even the DOW/NASDAQ charts look similar!!!.....especially nasdaq.

the Nikkei didn't hit it's all-time low until 2004,it started in 1990....are we about to see the same with the US indices??????...high in 2001,low 2015????

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Good point, not often mentioned. Everything relies on growth. A flat market means that investments made with cashflows from expected growth in mind are underutilised, and start to fail. That's why boom and bust are eternal (despite what you might have heard recently :lol: ) and soft landings only occur in dreams.

The only plateaus that exist are the kind that come up on the ECG machine when you are dead. Markets are either going up or they are going down. Even if the prices seem to stay the same everything else moves relative to them so value is in a constant state of flux. I think that is Nash's basic theory of equilibrium.

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Guest Shedfish

---- BUMP ----

isn't Maximus Decimus Meridius latin for "Big Ten down the middle"

(in a Prince Buster kind of way)

steady Russel.. :)

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Have been following links this afternoon from here and many other sites that you find along the way. The very grim housing news from the US of the last few days is everywhere! The Yanks do not shy away from reporting bad news it seems.

It's a good job it can't happen here in the UK. ;)

Now, back to the BBC website.........

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Guest Shedfish

Have been following links this afternoon from here and many other sites that you find along the way. The very grim housing news from the US of the last few days is everywhere! The Yanks do not shy away from reporting bad news it seems.

It's a good job it can't happen here in the UK. ;)

Now, back to the BBC website.........

yeh, the BBC... can't figure it out. some of the programming (world service, some documentaries) is still ok, but News24 is like the Muppet Show these days, website heading that way too.

went off earlier trying to find an audio of this blooper - all their podcasts seem to have disappeared too :ph34r::ph34r::ph34r:

love your show :D

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I'm almost in shock how much things have changed in such a short space of time and in only a few weeks of news. I think another 0.25 rate hike and the thinking in this country may start to seriously change. Thanks Realist Bear for all of your top links. I've been visiting this site this day one and it feels like it was never going to chnage at times but I now really feel that something has to give.

:)

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Errr...

This recession is the 2001 recession.

AG delayed it because of the war, voters don't tolerate far off wars during times of recession.

By delaying it he forced the imbalances to run longer and deeper, so the recession will be longer and deeper.

He made the correct decision for the good of his country.

He could not allow economic difficulties to be attributed to terrorists, else every terrorist attack could potentially lead to a slump, as people would have associated the two.

The terrorist would have won with the first blow.

The thing is 9/11 did not cause a downturn, the dotcom crash caused the downturn. 9/11 was an attempt to steal the blame.

It was a good attempt, but AG delayed the downturn so at the time there was very little blame to place. Now five years later, we can have the correction, without associating it to terrorists. Thing is we have to have the dotcom correction and the housing correction in a double dose, so yeah it's gonna be tough.

And yeah, it will affect us all.

yes i agree . but how do you think they plan to extract themselves from the inevitable bust in 2007/08 ?

war of course. did i hear someone mention Iran ?

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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