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American Vis Hiding The Truth?

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I just got this newsletter from EWI. It speaks for itself.

Personally I think this is great news The strength of VI deceptive activity is a sure sign of desperation.

Durch, that would make sense to me, as we are always 6-12 months behind USA apparantly. My thoughts have been that the UK is in a crash right now, albeit the start, fits in nicely with your posting.

I think this time next year people will be asking how they never spotted all the signs, I must admit without this site I probably wouldn't of myself.

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I mean - sneakily adjusting last year's numbers to pretend US national house prices haven't dropped nationally for the first time ever - well that's pretty extreme.

and yet, really not shocking. Am I too cynical?

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Guest grumpy-old-man

It wasn't this site for me - it was that Prechter book (Conquer the Crash), outlining the cyclical nature of debt expansions and contractions that woke me up to the precipice we are on. But this site is a great way to see things as they unfold, and it might save one or two innocent FTBs from destruction, and even now save TTRTR and the other bulls from losing a lot of money.

But the power of wishful thinking is huge. As this thread highlights, vested interests will do anything they can to make the mainstream media ignore it and pretend it isn't happening.

I mean - sneakily adjusting last year's numbers to pretend US national house prices haven't dropped nationally for the first time ever - well that's pretty extreme.

{BTW I said "first time ever" when they actually last fell nationally in WWII (as an aside, they fell 90% in Manhattan after 1929, which is more like today IMO) but the first time in modern times, to be accurate.}

we are away for the weekend (this weekend), so judging by the UK weather, I will make a start on the book. I bought them a few weeks back & haven't started them yet. I had just started a new position though & it's very demanding at the mo :(

What was throwing me was the comments about the USA hpc starting now & if we are always 12 months behine then it would be next year beforfe any reductions are seen. What I have experienced is a definite drop in prices in my area, lots more properties on the market & stuff that's sold, keeps falling through & popping up again for sale :ph34r:

So I was a bit confused, now I'm not.......if the stats have been fudged in the USA, then ours will have been done also......

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This is pretty worrying stuff, because although many people would be seeing prices dropping in their own area, or many properties unsold after 6 months on the EAs books, they will have been looking at the stats and thinking, 'this is just anecdotal evidence, I am only seeing the odd bad property, most are still selling fine'. As RealistBear keeps saying, sentiment is a very imporant part of the housing market and this kind of fiddling is helping to give people the wrong impression. Some poor sods may have made decisions to buy or sell based (unconsciously) on this info. Scary! :o

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After the last housing crash in the late 1980/90s, I personally kept records of the Halifax monthly house price index and average house price. After a while I found that my figures needed correcting. Eventually it became clear that Halifax were fiddling the figures and quietly adjusting them month after month.

The figures are a pack of lies from start to finish. Fat scumbag Prescott even supplied the historic figures for the Halifax factsheet 2002. He revised the 1980s crash so that it was no more than a plateau. The 2003 factsheet revised them back so that there was a small dip in prices. BOTH are still a pack of lies. There was a slump, as I remember, of at least 50%. My 3 bed semi had interested buyers at £60,000, but I held on too long and only sold it for £42,000, chasing the market down.

Look at Halifax's figures for the last housing crash and they claim there was barely any loss at all!!!

Just read the papers about how there's been a consumer led increase in GDP. Yet the Guardian contradicts its own story on this be reporting credit card lending is down to £7bn.

Just read about how the hot weather has caused a reduction rather than an increase in fruit and vegetable output. In reality, the supermarkets have seen price deflation in food over 2005.

There are lies, damed lies and statistics. But the statistic for honest statistics has to be close to zero.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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