Realistbear Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 (edited) http://www.housefund.co.uk/2006/08/house-p...out-to-end.html House price growth about to end There are signs that the mini-boom in the South of England could be about to end and as a result, slow down price growth elsewhere...../ However, increasing costs of home ownership and moving up the property ladder, added to rising energy bills, have already stretched affordability to levels where volumes of sales could begin to suffer. A bearish article with a doom and gloom bottom line as seen in the final paragraph cut and pasted above. With sales stagnating perhaps the VIs have worked out that they can make more in a crash? Edited August 23, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 http://www.housefund.co.uk/2006/08/house-p...out-to-end.html House price growth about to end There are signs that the mini-boom in the South of England could be about to end and as a result, slow down price growth elsewhere...../ However, increasing costs of home ownership and moving up the property ladder, added to rising energy bills, have already stretched affordability to levels where volumes of sales could begin to suffer. A bearish article with a doom and gloom bottom line as seen in the fial paragraph cut ands pasted above. With sales stagnating perhaps the VIs have worked out that they can make more in a crash? House price growth and lower volumes does not give you your crash does it? Is that the best you hope for? I can see bears' and bulls' predictions converging towards a view of price stagnation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 House price growth and lower volumes does not give you your crash does it? Is that the best you hope for? I can see bears' and bulls' predictions converging towards a view of price stagnation. Its more to do with changing sentiment than the numbers the VIs come up with. Its just odd to see a VI with a headline to the effect that its all over. The plateau theory was being embraced by the NAR (equivalent to our NAEA) in the US but they have since changed their tune to the hard landing approach in light of recent falls in the market. I am not sure if a chart exists to show a plateau or stagnant market after a recordbeating climb to the upside??? This recent HPI-MEW madness has been too extreme, too speculative, too risky for anything but a commensurate correction as the cyle works its way through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Its more to do with changing sentiment than the numbers the VIs come up with. Its just odd to see a VI with a headline to the effect that its all over. Or it could be that they have been reporting fact all along, and your accusations that they lied were unfounded. They're simply reporting the slow down in HPI that many of us expected. Sometimes it's worth taking people at face value, and not assume everyone's lying all the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Now, how many times have I heard the expression on here 'when the last bear turns bull'. I interpret this as meaning 'that when everyone is a bull it is a sure sign the bull market is at an end and a bear market is beginning. What scenario are we in when the last bull turns bear? Using the same logic it would mean that when everyone is a bear it is a sure sign the bear market is over and a bull market is returning. Am I right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Am I right? Well you were a bear, now turned bull. Go figure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jp1 Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 (edited) Now, how many times have I heard the expression on here 'when the last bear turns bull'. I interpret this as meaning 'that when everyone is a bull it is a sure sign the bull market is at an end and a bear market is beginning. What scenario are we in when the last bull turns bear? Using the same logic it would mean that when everyone is a bear it is a sure sign the bear market is over and a bull market is returning. Am I right? In a bull market, when last bear joins the bull, the market hits its peak. When the bulls turns bearish it suggest sentiment has changed and we're on our way down the other side. I think your example only works near the bottom of a bear market, not at the top of a bull one Anyway Marina, time to don your balaclava, and man those baracades and GET ANGRY!"!!! Edited August 23, 2006 by jp1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropertyGuru Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 It's based on the idea that when there are no more bears, there's no one else left to suck into the 'pyramid scam'. So it collapses. Easy peasy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 It's based on the idea that when there are no more bears, there's no one else left to suck into the 'pyramid scam'. So it collapses. Easy peasy. oh no! Not you again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Now, how many times have I heard the expression on here 'when the last bear turns bull'. I interpret this as meaning 'that when everyone is a bull it is a sure sign the bull market is at an end and a bear market is beginning. What scenario are we in when the last bull turns bear? Using the same logic it would mean that when everyone is a bear it is a sure sign the bear market is over and a bull market is returning. Am I right? yes, dead right!...........Everyone had given up on property in the mid 90s....No-one i know was bullish! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 I am not sure if a chart exists to show a plateau or stagnant market after a recordbeating climb to the upside??? Try looking at the nominal price version of the chart on the HPC homepage. Two out of three 'crashes' with no big nominal falls... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 (edited) "Prices are now cooling off and require no further intervention from the Bank of England" This is real reason Rightmove turned bearish recently. They know another rate rise would stop the housing market bubble dead in its tracks. Rightmove's biggest fear is that the market stalls will no buyers, just like the US is going through. + IR rises = stalled market = less buyers = less property transactions = less money in commissions for estate agents = less revenue for Rightmove. They are doing their utmost to prevent another IR rise. Edited August 23, 2006 by Pluto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Well you were a bear, now turned bull. Go figure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marzipan Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 There are signs that the mini-boom in the South of England could be about to end and as a result, slow down price growth elsewhere...../ what the **** is a 'mini-boom'???!?? its either a boom or not a boom!! if prices fall by single digit percents are they going to call it a 'mini-crash'??!? I don't think so!! probably a 'reverse-boom' or even better, a 'slow-down' !!! ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jp1 Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 what the **** is a 'mini-boom'???!?? A boom that EAs hope wont provoke IR rises Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 A boom that EAs hope wont provoke IR rises The traditional sucker's rally. With some of the VIs going bearish now it makes you wonder if they aren't trying to tip the market a little, not too much, to get their sellers to drop prices so they can make a few commissions? Nothing worse for an EA than a stagnant or "stablised" market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 what the **** is a 'mini-boom'???!?? BOOM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Or it could be that they have been reporting fact all along, and your accusations that they lied were unfounded. They're simply reporting the slow down in HPI that many of us expected. Sometimes it's worth taking people at face value, and not assume everyone's lying all the time. i ve never thought for a minute the halifax and nationwide fiddle their figures on purpose but if the indices go ngative they'll put a lot of spin on it and say its an opportunity to buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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