Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Realistbear

" Wales Faces A Gloomy Future For Jobs And Growth"

Recommended Posts

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0300busines...-name_page.html

Wales faces a gloomy future for jobs and growth after the latest rise in interest rates

Aug 23 2006

Sion Barry, Western Mail

Director with Cardiff Business School and chairman of The Welsh Whisky Company Brian Morgan explains why the recent rise in interest rates is bad for Wales
THE Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, claims to be very worried about inflation and is particularly concerned that he may soon have to write to the Chancellor to explain why the Bank is not hitting its inflation target....../
Secondly, upward revisions in GDP growth are largely the result of increased output in the financial services sector - mostly in London and the South East. This is notoriously difficult to measure and its impact on capacity is also difficult to gauge. In fact capacity constraints typically apply to the industrial sector where large investments in plant and machinery are required before an increase in output can be achieved.
But when we look at industrial output in the UK in recent years it has been consistently falling (by nearly 1% in the past year compared with a rise in industrial production of 5% in the Euro area).
Consumer confidence is low and consumer expenditure sluggish. Unemployment is rising, wage inflation is benign and yet profit margins are being eroded
- because of increases in National Insurance contributions, pension contributions and the rising costs of dealing with red tape and bureaucracy). Consequently,
company investment is low and falling and this is a prime reason why UK productivity is lacklustre
. In addition equity prices are falling and the
sterling exchange rate is rising
. Even the Bank's own report acknowledges that domestically generated inflationary pressures at the moment are low and falling...../
Despite a growing economy and rising tax receipts the Government's budget deficit is over 3% of GDP. As a consequence the broad measure of money supply (M4) is rising sharply at nearly 15% per annum.
The trade deficit, at £132bn is staggeringly large compared with our European competitors (and represents 7.5% of GDP) and even when we add in the surplus on financial services the deficit on the current account is still 3% of GDP
..../
The warning signs are well understood - large deficits on the budget and on the current account together with excessive monetary expansion are a recipe for financial disaster. They inevitably lead to a rise in interest rates which then 'crowds out' the private sector.

Doom and gloom?

1. Inflation rising.

2. GDP reliant on City growth--a bear market in stocks will bring it down very quickly.

3. Manufacturing crumbling.

4. Unemployment rising.

5. Consumer confidence at all time lows.

6. Budget over EU limit.

7. M4 totally out of control at a grwoth rate of 15%.

8. Trade deficit staggeringly large (thanks to sterling in part).

9. And the sheeple are turning to desperate measures to borrow even more to prop Gordon's miracle up.

In the light of the above, how long have we got before the entire Miracle Econolmy collapses? Gordon should have know there is never something for nothing, silly Billy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With doom and despair setting in in Wales with less jobs, unaffordable houses etc it makes you wonder if the LR's latest data showing the biggest boom in HPI for years can be true. For example, it says that Monmouthshire, hardly the place for high paying jobs, just sustained a 11.3% rise in average property prices in 90 days. Blighted Merthyr Tydfil got swiped with a 17% 90 day increase. Annualized that is HPI at over 40% and 68% respectively. Summat wrong for sure. :

Monmouthshire

£221,633 Quarter: 11.3% YoY: 6.9% 306

Ceredigion

£183,336 2.8% 9.8% 192

The Vale Of Glamorgan

£179,283 0.4% 5% 664

Pembrokeshire

£178,841 7.2% 12.8% 487

Powys

£176,502 3.9% 10.4% 446

Cardiff

£172,645 0.6% 2% 1516

Conwy

£163,034 7.6% 2.4% 443

Flintshire

£157,022 10% 3.6% 528

Gwynedd

£156,159 1.7% 8.8% 414

Isle Of Anglesey

£154,388 6.5% 13.4% 228

Newport

£153,765 6.2% 8.9% 597

Wrexham

£153,734 4.4% 9.4% 540

Denbighshire

£148,513 5.3% 14.4% 389

Swansea

£147,176 5.8% 12.9% 1032

Carmarthenshire

£137,364 0.1% 3.8% 712

Bridgend

£135,640 1.5% 3.2% 662

Torfaen

£127,011 5.4% 8.3% 296

Caerphilly

£120,771 4.3% 9.9% 714

Neath Port Talbot

£109,827 6.7% 5.4% 593

Merthyr Tydfil

£105,308 17.1% 28.2% 189

Rhondda Cynon Taff

£100,544 7.6% 4.5% 833

Blaenau Gwent

£94,602 14.7% 14.3% 239

Sources:

England and Wales

Land Registry of England and Wales. The information above is based on figures provided by the Land Registry of England and Wales.

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest wrongmove

With doom and despair setting in in Wales with less jobs, unaffordable houses etc it makes you wonder if the LR's latest data showing the biggest boom in HPI for years can be true. For example, it says that Monmouthshire, hardly the place for high paying jobs, just sustained a 11.3% rise in average property prices in 90 days. Blighted Merthyr Tydfil got swiped with a 17% 90 day increase. Annualized that is HPI at over 40% and 68% respectively. Summat wrong for sure. :

RB, you have the memory of a goldfish ! :P

It has been explained many times why the LR stats for short time periods and small areas are useless as a guide to what is really happening, but for newbies here, I will resummarise - sample size to small to be statistically meaningful (the figuires jump all over the place from quarter to quarter), lack of mix-adjustment (LR is a simple average and does not compare like to like), very backward looking (stats are for deals arranged 6-9 months ago) and lack of seasonal adjustment (market always peaks in spring and dips in autumn).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RB, you have the memory of a goldfish ! :P

It has been explained many times why the LR stats for short time periods and small areas are useless as a guide to what is really happening, but for newbies here, I will resummarise - sample size to small to be statistically meaningful (the figuires jump all over the place from quarter to quarter), lack of mix-adjustment (LR is a simple average and does not compare like to like), very backward looking (stats are for deals arranged 6-9 months ago) and lack of seasonal adjustment (market always peaks in spring and dips in autumn).

Some of the sample sizes are very large and consist of sveral hundred examples. However, I do agree as the LR stats seem to be all over the place with one Q showing a decline of 15% and the next Q the opposite. FT.Index seems to be more reliable although the new tracking site, HouseUK or something similar is reputed to be the most accurate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest wrongmove

Some of the sample sizes are very large and consist of sveral hundred examples. However, I do agree as the LR stats seem to be all over the place with one Q showing a decline of 15% and the next Q the opposite. FT.Index seems to be more reliable although the new tracking site, HouseUK or something similar is reputed to be the most accurate.

Statistically, 100 samples implies a standard error of 10%. This means that about 60% of estimates will be within 10% of the true value. The other 40% will be even further out. So statistically, these are very small samples and the figures are within the standard error in many cases. And this is not even taking into account the lack of mix adjustment or seasonality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.