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Roll Up Roll Up, Ir Predictions For Rest Of Year.

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Merv mugs the new members in September - 0.25% rise

October - new members given smelling salts by Gordon Brown and manage to squeeze through a hold

November - Merv lays groundwork for further rate increase by threatening not to buy garibaldis for the next meeting - rates hold

December - Merv persuades the committee that Santa knows if you've been bad or good so raise rates for goodness sake - 0.25 rise.

1 January 2007 - Merv's body found impaled on the railings of No 11 Downing Street

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Short Sterling has really gone down over the past week, .15 to .20 across the board.

Although a recent Reuteurs poll showed 2/3's of economists questioned thought a rate rise in November was on.......

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Short Sterling has really gone down over the past week, .15 to .20 across the board.

Although a recent Reuteurs poll showed 2/3's of economists questioned thought a rate rise in November was on.......

Unfortunately, no change for rest of this year!

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September - 0.25 rise - a back-to-back "surprise", and last chance before new external members arrive in October. Purely to affect sentiment, and shock a market that's already talked down the August rise

October - Hold - Browns' doves roosted and press writting about "split MPC decisions" - The "next Rate Cut" VI brigade out in force

November - 0.25 rise - Infaltion report with show CPI rocketing towards 3%

December - No Change - Merv writes letter to Brown

Jan - In response, Brown introduces new 'more realistic' inflation measure, while at same time 'adjusting' the inflation target to bring it in line with new measure, and 'global inflation environment'

Edited by jp1

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Depends, we're sitting on a knife edge at the minute.

The Middle East is taking a quick breather, terrorists are looking more active again, oil supplies are tight, September is typically host to hurricanes.

The consensus on the market was that the BoE would wait until October/November before doing anything, but they moved in the summer lull. Rates will likely remain at 4.75% for sometime at least but the trend across the globe is an upward one.

With Asian manufacturing economies still growing at 7-11%pa inflation is here for the duration of the short term future, expect the global IR trend to remain upwards as long as Asian industrial growth remains so high.

Edited by ?...!

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Interest rates left alone for the next 2 months as spiraling inflation figures slowly roll in then a nice .25% rise at the start of November.

Reason being that CPI needs to go above 2.5% for the BOI to act. A one off increase can possibly be explained by tuition fees/the world cup/australian bananas and the BOI will want to give it a couple of months to see what effect the last rise had on the market. I think that they hope there won't have to be another rise this year, but that inflation figures are going to force their hand eventually. They won't want to raise interest rates in December because it would hurt christmas spending, and delaying a rate rise until January or even February will be too late, so I'm going to go for November.

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I think November is most likely, but I would really like to see something sooner. Inflation is already hurting me in the wallet.. and I mean hurt.. :angry:

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I'll stick pretty much with what I said

Aug +.25%

Sept No Change

Oct No Change

I think it will be important to get a hike in early while everyone is on holiday and won't notice it or, even if they do, won't care about it. I think it will be the first of two before the year is out.

but make a slight revision. We had the August increase that would have left November and December by my earlier reckoning. December is a no no which only leaves November but I reckon September could be back on the cards.

Sept 0.25%

Oct No Change

Nov No Change

Dec No Change

Either way, I'm more interested in seeing property drop than IR's rise even though I have some heavy weight savings but hey, if that's what it takes..... :D

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... I reckon September could be back on the cards.

I agree. Merv may well want to get another rise in before Browns' doves arrive in October.

Mervyn King recently spoke about how pi$$ed off he's been getting with all the media/VI spin about BoE decisions, and how its running counter to BoE's efforts to affect sentiment without having to resort to actual IR hikes.

I reckon a September one is on cards to ram home the message. Once the new doves arrive, the media will be full stories about how the MPC are divided about inflation and growth. They've already been spinning the split decision story when the recent BoE Minutes revealed Blanchflower alone voted for a hold.

As King said, if the bank loose their grip on peoples inflation expectations [iMO they already have] then that's half the battle lost.

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0.25% next month to try to slow inflation

Nothing Oct

0.25% Nov when it doesn't work

Nothing in December. Happy Christmas :P

Sentiment to slowly turn to the end of the year, with a crash blowing in from the East in the New Year. Happy Easter :blink:

Edited by RussellF

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Sept - 0.25% Hike

Oct - Hold

Nov - 0.25% Hike

Dec - Hold

A back to back hike in September to get it over with this year, the MPC being very cautious to stay away from the christmas period and causing even more debt for people. But in November inflation has risen due to supermarkets raising prices on food by over 10% and the IR have to raise again.

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Tescos have always been ruthlessly jacking up food to whatever they can get away with.

They used to sell these wonderful packets of flavoured noodles for 5p, they discontinued them

altogether one-day without warning.

They must've realised there was no margin on them whatsoever, *****.

I would imagine Tescos will be one of the first food distributors to collapse

in the face of peak oil, given how they've pushed their globalised business

model as far as it will absolutely go.

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Sept 0.25% hike

No more; because economy is given a big shake up by tumbling markets between late september and early november- probably triggered by a hedge fund and/or derivatives shock ( perhaps itself triggered by an exposure to US property/mortgages, or possibly a russian exposure as in 1998). Merv & co paralysed by events unfolding.

Dollar falls vs. Euro (maybe 15- 20%)- sterling tracks dollar probably 2/3 of way- but may overswing in short term.

Property falls the least of worries - celebration by hopeful FTB's of price drops delayed due to other uncertainties.

Yippee. At last some excitement......!

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Short Sterling has really gone down over the past week, .15 to .20 across the board.

Although a recent Reuteurs poll showed 2/3's of economists questioned thought a rate rise in November was on.......

These are the same economists who completely failed to anticipate this August's rate rise, yes?

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FrozenOut

Dr Doom

Son of Taeper

gfromls (predicted another nov move)

All four of these lads managed to spot the Aug rise

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ctions&st=0

(I went September, D'oh!)

OK, for the rest of the year I go

September - No Change

October - 0.25 rise :D

November - No Change

December - No Change

If Merv has the nerve to go against Gordon 'Golden Bollo*ks' Brown I reckon we could see a surprise 0.5% increase next to catch up to the rate Merv would like us all to have been on months ago.

#scoobydoo#

:ph34r:

Edited by #scoobydoo#

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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