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Armageddon In Sydney Property Market

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Guest mattsta1964

A 3 bedroom house in Sydney suburb loses 42% of its value since 2003

Owner sold up because he couldn't meet the repayments

Sounds familiar doesn't it????

Of course, it could never happen here! :D

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A 3 bedroom house in Sydney suburb loses 42% of its value since 2003

Owner sold up because he couldn't meet the repayments

Sounds familiar doesn't it????

Of course, it could never happen here! :D

If you know Sydney well which Im assuming you do by posting this then you will first of all observe that the house in question is a dump and second of all that it is miles outside of Sydney in an undesirable area. Increased fuel prices have indeed made these places very unattractive and the suburbs that are right on the City perimiter were vastly overpriced and will indeed drop by 40%. If you look closer you'll know that suburbs nearer to the centre are only dropping by 5-10%. Still dropping but only minor falls in price.

I actually see something similar happening in the UK. Places like Stoke, Barnsley, Derby, Norwich, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cornwall, Hull, Lincoln, York, Bradford, N Ireland, Wales will all fall in my opinion by about 20-30%. Other places like Dorset, Devon, Cotswolds, Gloucestershire probably about 10% and London & SE about 5%. Within these areas those that are in desirable areas close to Train Stations/services will fall less than those on the outskirts. I believe this has to happen to regain the London/Rest of UK gap that has always existed.

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If you know Sydney well which Im assuming you do by posting this then you will first of all observe that the house in question is a dump and second of all that it is miles outside of Sydney in an undesirable area. Increased fuel prices have indeed made these places very unattractive and the suburbs that are right on the City perimiter were vastly overpriced and will indeed drop by 40%. If you look closer you'll know that suburbs nearer to the centre are only dropping by 5-10%. Still dropping but only minor falls in price.

I actually see something similar happening in the UK. Places like Stoke, Barnsley, Derby, Norwich, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cornwall, Hull, Lincoln, York, Bradford, N Ireland, Wales will all fall in my opinion by about 20-30%. Other places like Dorset, Devon, Cotswolds, Gloucestershire probably about 10% and London & SE about 5%. Within these areas those that are in desirable areas close to Train Stations/services will fall less than those on the outskirts. I believe this has to happen to regain the London/Rest of UK gap that has always existed.

I haven't seen it in Bradford yet.

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Guest mattsta1964

If you know Sydney well which Im assuming you do by posting this then you will first of all observe that the house in question is a dump and second of all that it is miles outside of Sydney in an undesirable area. Increased fuel prices have indeed made these places very unattractive and the suburbs that are right on the City perimiter were vastly overpriced and will indeed drop by 40%. If you look closer you'll know that suburbs nearer to the centre are only dropping by 5-10%. Still dropping but only minor falls in price.

I actually see something similar happening in the UK. Places like Stoke, Barnsley, Derby, Norwich, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cornwall, Hull, Lincoln, York, Bradford, N Ireland, Wales will all fall in my opinion by about 20-30%. Other places like Dorset, Devon, Cotswolds, Gloucestershire probably about 10% and London & SE about 5%. Within these areas those that are in desirable areas close to Train Stations/services will fall less than those on the outskirts. I believe this has to happen to regain the London/Rest of UK gap that has always existed.

We'll see about that!

With our grossly overvalued currency and £1.2 trillion of debt 'have it now pay later' society and the most reckless chancellor in history, mortgaging our future into oblivion

We'll see!

We're in a far worse position here than the Ozzies. People here are forced to go into debt just to exist. People are taking unsecured loans and spending on their credit cards just to be able to survive.

The chickens are coming home to roost. Not long to go now. The UK will be a 3rd world country in 5-10 years

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I actually see something similar happening in the UK. Places like Stoke, Barnsley, Derby, Norwich, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cornwall, Hull, Lincoln, York, Bradford, N Ireland, Wales will all fall in my opinion by about 20-30%. Other places like Dorset, Devon, Cotswolds, Gloucestershire probably about 10% and London & SE about 5%. Within these areas those that are in desirable areas close to Train Stations/services will fall less than those on the outskirts. I believe this has to happen to regain the London/Rest of UK gap that has always existed.

I've always used "Stoke" as my proxy for all those dodgy grubby areas you mention.

I also think they will fall much more than 20 - 30%. Up to 70% is my guess. Note not 70% everywhere just in certain appalling parts.

It's a 2 tier economy from now on.

Desirable areas will stagnate / fall as supply shortages will keep prices at maximum affordability.

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I've always used "Stoke" as my proxy for all those dodgy grubby areas you mention.

I also think they will fall much more than 20 - 30%. Up to 70% is my guess. Note not 70% everywhere just in certain appalling parts.

It's a 2 tier economy from now on.

Desirable areas will stagnate / fall as supply shortages will keep prices at maximum affordability.

My thinking has always been, and remains, the overall property market will be troughing at 50% below the peak - some areas/'ghost' developments down by 70% whilst others down by 30%.

N.B. I'm talking about nominal falls because I think the BOE will not somehow inflate our way out of this crisis but will raise IRs, leading to credit tightning etc. The notion that you can have the gain (ie; a 10 year shopping spree) without the pain (paying it back in real terms) seems like wishful thinking on behalf of the indebted.

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My thinking has always been, and remains, the overall property market will be troughing at 50% below the peak - some areas/'ghost' developments down by 70% whilst others down by 30%.

N.B. I'm talking about nominal falls because I think the BOE will not somehow inflate our way out of this crisis but will raise IRs, leading to credit tightning etc. The notion that you can have the gain (ie; a 10 year shopping spree) without the pain (paying it back in real terms) seems like wishful thinking on behalf of the indebted.

70% :lol:

So a 3 bedroom detached in Stoke will be worth £75k and a 2 bedroom flat will be £45k and one bedroom flat £30k.I cant see it....Hang on though when I was there in 1993/94 that was the prices. Very plausable. You might be right.....

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N.B. I'm talking about nominal falls because I think the BOE will not somehow inflate our way out of this crisis but will raise IRs, leading to credit tightning etc. The notion that you can have the gain (ie; a 10 year shopping spree) without the pain (paying it back in real terms) seems like wishful thinking on behalf of the indebted.

This paying back - paying off the debt - is the basis for recession/depression. Paying off - less spending - less services needed - higher unemployment - less services needed...

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I actually see something similar happening in the UK. Places like Stoke, Barnsley, Derby, Norwich, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cornwall, Hull, Lincoln, York, Bradford, N Ireland, Wales will all fall in my opinion by about 20-30%. Other places like Dorset, Devon, Cotswolds, Gloucestershire probably about 10% and London & SE about 5%. Within these areas those that are in desirable areas close to Train Stations/services will fall less than those on the outskirts. I believe this has to happen to regain the London/Rest of UK gap that has always existed.

If a HPC occurs, I think it will be across the board with all areas affected and all types of house.

Edited by expatowner

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I have just come back from France, and the interesting thing is that a crash here will be rippled out into Europe as the house of cards tumbles.

Europe has also seen massive property inflation over the past ten years, with France seeing rises of 600% in many areas.

The problem will be global, this can be seen with the US already flailing, Australia following close behind, and the UK teetering on the edge.

One thing is for sure, the words "Miracle Economy" just like "Dot Com Boom" will go down in the history books as yet another failure of global leaders to apply basic schoolbook economics to their strategies.

The miracle economy will become known as the mirage economy, and like the emperors new clothes the public and the institutions will wake up to the reality with a huge blush on their faces.

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Guest mattsta1964

I have just come back from France, and the interesting thing is that a crash here will be rippled out into Europe as the house of cards tumbles.

Europe has also seen massive property inflation over the past ten years, with France seeing rises of 600% in many areas.

The problem will be global, this can be seen with the US already flailing, Australia following close behind, and the UK teetering on the edge.

One thing is for sure, the words "Miracle Economy" just like "Dot Com Boom" will go down in the history books as yet another failure of global leaders to apply basic schoolbook economics to their strategies.

The miracle economy will become known as the mirage economy, and like the emperors new clothes the public and the institutions will wake up to the reality with a huge blush on their faces.

What makes you think it is a failure of global leaders. It's more likely to be quite deliberate to cause the global economy to disintegrate. More likely that this is exactly what they want to happen.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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