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Realistbear

Toll Brothers Builders Orders Drop 50%

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http://personal.fidelity.com/research/stoc...ketsindex.shtml

Toll Bros. may reduce outlook again as home sales seen weak
11:04 a.m. 08/21/2006 By John Spence Provided by
Luxury builder may cut outlook; economists brace for housing data
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Toll Brothers Inc., which earlier this month said its quarterly
new-home orders slipped nearly 50%
on a slumping housing market, may again reduce its 2006 profit forecast when it reports earnings Tuesday. Data on new and existing home sales will also provide more clues on the depth of the slowdown in the housing market.
Investors will be focusing on third-quarter results from Toll (TOL), which as the largest builder of luxury homes is considered a bellwether for the residential housing market.
In early August the Horsham, Penn., company, which normally releases preliminary home-building results ahead of its quarterly earnings, said the value of signed contracts fell 45% for the quarter ended July 31 from the year ago. The builder also lowered its 2006 home-delivery forecast for the fourth time as the housing market cools and cancellation rates rise.
Chief Executive Robert Toll said the slowdown is unique because it wasn't triggered by interest rates, a weak economy, job losses or other economic factors. Rather, it was precipitated by an inventory overhang and a pullback in buyer confidence as speculative demand has evaporated, he said.

A leading indicator of a coming HPC turns extremely negative. UK builders can expect the same later this year as market unwinds and reality sets in.

Edited by Realistbear

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Chief Executive Robert Toll said the slowdown is unique because it wasn't triggered by interest rates, a weak economy, job losses or other economic factors. Rather, it was precipitated by an inventory overhang and a pullback in buyer confidence as speculative demand has evaporated, he said.

Truly a beautiful statement - which is exactly what we've been saying: it doesn't need any of those things for an HPC - just the bubble pops when realism sets in! :lol::lol::lol:

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http://personal.fidelity.com/research/stoc...ketsindex.shtml

Toll Bros. may reduce outlook again as home sales seen weak
11:04 a.m. 08/21/2006 By John Spence Provided by
Luxury builder may cut outlook; economists brace for housing data
A leading indicator of a coming HPC turns
extremely
negative. UK builders can expect the same later this year as market unwinds and reality sets in.
What are the similarities/differences between the UK and US housing markets? In particular what would make a Bull see what's going on in the US and still claim it won't happen here?

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What are the similarities/differences between the UK and US housing markets? In particular what would make a Bull see what's going on in the US and still claim it won't happen here?

History.

OZ is seeing the same effects and the IMF said it was a worldwide bubble and would burst about the same time. Same conditions exist in the US as here. Huge number of IO and other forms of irresponsible lending. Multiples exceeding buyer's ability to pay. Resetting rates from low intro loans to reality. Softer employment. BTL investors no longer in the market. Wages lagging HPI for years. IMO, the US and ourselves are in exactly the same boat.

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More grim news from the US:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/15/real_estat..._fall/index.htm

Home prices in deep freeze
Second quarter numbers are in for more than 150 markets. Overall growth is down; more markets show declines. Plus: Where the strength still is.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
August 15 2006: 3:28 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- After several years of turbo-powered growth, home prices have gone into a stall, according to the latest prices released Tuesday.
Nationally, the median home price rose just 3.7 percent to $227,500 from last year's second quarter to this year's, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Where the growth still is
Growth in the median home price in the second quarter.
* Baton Rouge, LA: 27.3%
* Ocala, Fla.: 25.3%
* Virginia Beach, VA: 23.6%
* Gainesville, Fla.: 19.7%
* Portland, Ore.: 19.1%
Losing ground
* Danville, Ill.: - 11.2%
* Detroit, Mich.: - 8%
* Rockford, Ill.: - 5.5%
* Davenport, IA: - 5.5%
* Cleveland: - 5.2%
It was the second consecutive quarter in which home prices failed to repeat the gains of more than 10 percent recorded throughout 2005.
Twenty-six markets of the 151 surveyed experienced price declines from a year ago
, ranging from 0.1 percent (Columbus, Ohio) to 11.3 percent (Danville, Illinois). See prices for all 151 markets.

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Chief Executive Robert Toll said the slowdown is unique because it wasn't triggered by interest rates, a weak economy, job losses or other economic factors. Rather, it was precipitated by an inventory overhang and a pullback in buyer confidence as speculative demand has evaporated, he said.[/indent]

It's an asset market and it's behaving like one. Once investors think prices are going to fall, they will stop buying and start selling.

When that happens HPI will go negative.

All those hours we spend/spent on here trying to guess what the trigger will be.

It's the sentiment, stupid. [with apologies to Bill Clinton]

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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