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I Have A Feeling In My Bones Its Going To Be A Bear Week!

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I wonder if this is going to be the week we will all look back upon and say that Great Crash 2 began that week!

The dark clouds of a HPC are gathering............................ :ph34r:

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Guest Alright Jack

It began some weeks ago.

The data is just beginning to trickle out now

We know about Greenspan's conundrum. Looking at some news recently it looks as if Brown has been performing the same trick of issuing lots of short bonds and starving the long end so as to lower the yields. This is what has been holding down long fixed rates whilst short rates are moving up.

Did this have the likely desired effect of getting our mortgaged-to-the-hilt short fixed and variable rate middle class to lock in to long low rates in preparation as we 'climb the mountain'?

The problem is the government is using short term debt that must be paid soon. What's going on with this, I'm not clear on what's going on here? Does this partly explain why the bank have moved so suddenly and decisively (King is pretending it was all perfectly predictable)? Are we about to launch an aggresive IR campaign?

Scary stuff!

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It began some weeks ago.

The data is just beginning to trickle out now

I wonder if yet more bad (good) news will be forthcoming from across the pond? The way the US housing market and general economic growth has slowed in the past year has surprised me.

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Short sterling seems to have taken a dip down over the last week, some of the news released last week (in particular high street sales?) must have affected the markets perception on future rate increases. Anyone know what the "market" is expexting in terms of rate increases and so forth over the coming months. Still on for another hike in November?

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Short sterling seems to have taken a dip down over the last week, some of the news released last week (in particular high street sales?) must have affected the markets perception on future rate increases. Anyone know what the "market" is expexting in terms of rate increases and so forth over the coming months. Still on for another hike in November?

5%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...ps&refer=uk

Interest-rate futures show traders expect the bank to raise borrowing costs once more this year, to 5 percent. Investors started the year betting the central bank would remain on hold for the next 12 months, futures show.

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Thanks RB, will be interesting to see the effect it has at the front door as it were......

Bookies make the odds approx 1:2 that the rate will be 5% by year end! More likely than not but far from certain!

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I wonder if this is going to be the week we will all look back upon and say that Great Crash 2 began that week!

The dark clouds of a HPC are gathering............................ :ph34r:

I've certainly noticed sentiment amongst work colleagues worsening recently. I work in an office full of property lawyers so maybe that's a better indication of the state of the market than your average office.

Incidentally, colleagues in our residential property department report they haven't acted for a BTL purchaser for months so it looks like the only ones left in the market are the ones in the 'clubs' grouping together for safety in numbers <_<

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I wonder if this is going to be the week we will all look back upon and say that Great Crash 2 began that week!

The dark clouds of a HPC are gathering............................ :ph34r:

for which asset classes?

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for which asset classes?

IMO, houses are seeing a real turning point now and its not just the somewhat unreliable RM data but a combination of the FT Index, ODPM data showing slowing and the lukewarmish Haliwide reports. The generally accepted view that BTL is no longer viable as an "investment" is also helping push sentiment into bearish territory and it could be BTLers rushing for the exits that will be the main trigger. Enthusiasm has gone from the market and without exhuberance a highly speculative commodity such as houses has nowhere to go but down.

Stocks? The last 2 weeks of August are impossible to call as everyone apparently goes on vacation. However, with oil yet to impact the economy in a real way I still see some doom and gloom ahead for world indices--the FTSE being more vulnerable that the Eurozone as we are at the end of our growth cycle and the EZ never really got one going. Asis looks shaky as China seems to have a problem containing their inflation and IR hikes are not having any effect.

For me, its a few defensive stocks (utilities, coal), a smattering of ST bonds and mostly cash. I am still bearish on sterling despite it relentless rise due to the fact that speculators are powering the market (see today's Bloomberg report) and exports are taking a hit and this will take a few more months to work through to the economy and consequnetial jobs losses. I can afford to wait on CABLE to adjust itself as I do not plan on any major UK purchases anytime soon and will stay in US$ at around 5.05%.

Edited by Realistbear

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IMO, houses are seeing a real turning point now and its not just the somewhat unreliable RM data but a combination of the FT Index, ODPM data showing slowing and the lukewarmish Haliwide reports.

Hey don't forget the Home.co.uk Index reports...they seem to have been much more 'on the button' than all the rest.

Your are indeed right, the party is over and the property market is about to wake up to an immense hangover.

:D:D:D

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I wonder if this is going to be the week we will all look back upon and say that Great Crash 2 began that week!

The dark clouds of a HPC are gathering............................ :ph34r:

Holy Sherbert! You couldn't make this up. Every week for the past five years the great crash has been about to happen. During this time House price have gone, er, up. And yet the enthusism for those that believe that we are on the cusp of a crash, or even in the middle of a crash, remains undiminished, as does their inablity to understand concepts such as seasonlity, property mixes etc.

Week after week, year after year! Isn't this obsession :lol: getting a bit tedious - not to mention, expensive?!!!

Hey don't forget the Home.co.uk Index reports...they seem to have been much more 'on the button' than all the rest.

Your are indeed right, the party is over and the property market is about to wake up to an immense hangover.

:D:D:D

Mama Mia! Do you not think that the reason you think that home.co.uk (and I've absolutley no freakin idea who they are!) are "more on the button" is because they are the ONLY index anywhere near in line with what you want to happen? Have you any idea how they measure house prices? Are you not a wee bit suspicious that they are out of kilter with all the other indexes? i thought not.

The parallel universe that is HPC continues to amaze.

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I work in an office full of property lawyers

how come you're not marked as a VI troll then and i am?

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how come you're not marked as a VI troll then and i am?

You've marked yourself as a Bull on your profile so you're immediately persona non grata on this forum :P

RB's a lawyer and he's the doyenne of the Bears so I don't think that should make me unpopular on here ;)

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:D:P:D it's gonna be a great week, and I'm going to enjoy the rest of the year.

Other than the great news headlines on the front page, John Boulger from Charcoal was just on Radio 4 saying that 5% is likely and the interview also said IO mortages are not advisable as prices may come down.

It may only be a trickle or as some like to say the heat is gently raising. (Boiled Frog syndrome).

Thanks HPC, you can be great at times like this.

If anyone disagrees, I don't care - just jump in with the frogs.

And yes I'm sure many here have been talking of the inevitable for some time - good on you guys and gals because it is inevitable.

Hrmm - Blue Pill or Red pill time for some.

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Couldn't agree more, the people I speak to about the price of property think I am crazy for still holding onto my beliefs after so long (2 years with this site) but thats the thing about the inevitable (which a correction is) it is inevitable.

Yes we are amazed this run has gone on for so long, but no this does not lead us to belive that it will last forever.

"It is not how often you get knocked down, it's how opten you get up that counts"

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The thing is, its a bit like the boy that cried wolf on this site / the stopped clock that is still right twice a day.

Every piece of news is the "start of something big" that never actually happens.

They're paying new graduates £30- £35k a year at many firms now, quite a few younger people will be entering the market and affording their first little flat in no time, while those who sit on the sidelines for ever could come to regret it. I don't wish to ramp, but who'd have thought last year we would have seen 10% growth in prices this year. Property is still affordable for many many people.

The people that were crowing about having STR'd a couple of years ago are now seriously regreting that they ST'E'd and will be playing the waiting game for many more years to come if they're not careful.

Next year is 2007 . When we see 8-10% growth in prices again, what are people going to say? there's a crash around the corner!

Whilst writing , i notice a lot of the old posters on this site seem to have left - did they all buy properties?!!!

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Whilst writing , i notice a lot of the old posters on this site seem to have left - did they all buy properties?!!!

No they set up another site

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Next year is 2007 . When we see 8-10% growth in prices again, what are people going to say? there's a crash around the corner!

are you sure?

maybe Central London but in Norfolk - prices are either coming down or houses not selling.

I know of a few premises that have been up for years.

as I say blue pill or red.

8 repos in 3 weeks for a local town from 1 agency. This repo thing does not happen when HPI lets MEW pay the mortgage deficit and create more debt.

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The thing is, its a bit like the boy that cried wolf on this site / the stopped clock that is still right twice a day.

Every piece of news is the "start of something big" that never actually happens.

They're paying new graduates £30- £35k a year at many firms now, quite a few younger people will be entering the market and affording their first little flat in no time, while those who sit on the sidelines for ever could come to regret it. I don't wish to ramp, but who'd have thought last year we would have seen 10% growth in prices this year. Property is still affordable for many many people.

The people that were crowing about having STR'd a couple of years ago are now seriously regreting that they ST'E'd and will be playing the waiting game for many more years to come if they're not careful.

Next year is 2007 . When we see 8-10% growth in prices again, what are people going to say? there's a crash around the corner!

Whilst writing , i notice a lot of the old posters on this site seem to have left - did they all buy properties?!!!

Its over.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/21082006/214/prope...-month-low.html

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Holy Sherbert! You couldn't make this up. Every week for the past five years the great crash has been about to happen.

Oh yeah? And who exactly was predicting a crash to happen in 2001?

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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