Edmund Conway's 'word On The Street'

[Mags]

Wow!

Seems strange he would devote that amount of space to something that he concludes is unlikely. A bit more shoddy journalism...

'This could happen... I don't think it will... but it could'.

I would not want to read that piece if I was a BTL LL!

[dog]

Then there's the legion of homeowners with one or two buy-to-let properties, many of whom will now be realising that rents are simply not moving, and that it's often difficult to fill their flats.

[sun n sea]

What's with the immigrants- if they are EU nationals they are here to earn cash, send it home and then go back to enjoy a lower cost of living.

Immigrant workers will live 6 to a room in a doss pit, hot bedding or doing whatever it takes to spend as little on accomodation as possible- short terms pain for long term gain. They aren't going to rent your BTL flats- all the money they want to send home would go in your pocket so there would be no reason to come here in the first place.

[Jason]

So why did all the economists suddenly give up? It seems crazy, as the fundermentals are even more out of kilt than they were when they made their predictions.

I know a few a sitting quietly, like A Oswald, knowing the inevitable will happen, but are fed up with being critised how they are wrong.

But why the hell did Captial Economics say there wouldn't be a crash? It just seems like they didn't have a clue in the first place. Why not say, because of x, y, z a crash didn't happen, but the fundermentals are still in place if x, y, z happened.

I know the BBC love to cite CE (in complaints) and how they said they were wrong, so a crash is very unlikely.

It just seems like the it "hasn't happened, so it won't happen" approach.

[the end is a bit nigher]

Wow!

Seems strange he would devote that amount of space to something that he concludes is unlikely. A bit more shoddy journalism...

'This could happen... I don't think it will... but it could'.

I would not want to read that piece if I was a BTL LL!

This reminds me of when I first started trading currencies. I steadily became familiar with patterns of price movements until eventually i was quite accurate in predicting what was going to happen next. Despite this, on occassion I would remain in denial and hold a losing position while things did what I expected and got worse rather than take the initial loss.

I suspect Mr Conway and no doubt plenty of BTLers know that when rents aren't rising because there is spare capacity, but IRs are, the writing is on the wall. However, despite this they will cling to their dream of easy money until they can take the loss no more and become forced sellers.

What step in the cycle is denial?

[Xurbia]

Con Way = Oxy Moron?

I still don't think prices will crash, but there's something in the air that makes me nervous.

Yes there's certainly something in the air and that's the bullsh*t coming from this contradiction.

[apom]

What's with the immigrants- if they are EU nationals they are here to earn cash, send it home and then go back to enjoy a lower cost of living.

Immigrant workers will live 6 to a room in a doss pit, hot bedding or doing whatever it takes to spend as little on accomodation as possible- short terms pain for long term gain. They aren't going to rent your BTL flats- all the money they want to send home would go in your pocket so there would be no reason to come here in the first place.

Okay, 6 to a room is pushing it a little..

but look at those UK folk living abroad.. if you do the maths it balances..

Anyone with the intellect to claim that an immigrant worker not even on the minimum wage will help support current house prices does not have the ability to chew gum and walk..

we are shipping out of the country retired couples with their vast equity from their property going with them.. Professional people with skills no longer needed here but in such demand in economic nations..

We are replacing this with a massively expanding public sector workforce, and immigrants..

We are sacrificing this country in the belief that our properties made us rich..

we are idiots...

I am leaving Devon, for London.

Devon is seeing price drops, granted..

but i am fed up that no one is doing anything but dribbling and claiming that they are millionaires because they own five horrendous flats and so much debt it makes your heart stop at the thought.

[Mags]

What step in the cycle is denial?

Not sure but the article read like an essay of that title.

[CrashedOutAndBurned]

Anyone with the intellect to claim that an immigrant worker not even on the minimum wage will help support current house prices does not have the ability to chew gum and walk..

I think that. I can chew gum and walk.

In my area, Rachman slumlords often swoop on any terraced family home up for grabs, thus keeping house prices up even as streets delcine into bedsitlands. A 3 bed house that might rent for £850 on the normal rental market can be made into five overcrowded bedsits and each room can rent for 350+. We went to an 'open house' viewing a while back and these slumlords were all over it ( they all look kind of like Phil Mitchell and sound like him too) trying to figure out just how many 'rooms' can be crammed in.

As 350PCM is still on the high side, many unoffical sharing of rooms takes place. I know, because many people new to the area end up in these rachmanesque HMOs before they meet people and can get a proper house share going.

It's town cramming. It's overcrowding. It sucks. It benefits no one. It's just not fair.

What does the poor brit do? Live two or three to a room, save up, and f-off to latvia? I'm sure they'd have the pick of the many, many jobs there and the language barrier wouldn't matter one iota.