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Guest pioneer31

The Main Flaw In The Argument Is.......

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Guest pioneer31

that because the crash/slump hasn't arrived (it has in my area folks) then it never will.

Take this statement....

'I'm a smoker but I won't get cancer because I'm 34 now and still in fine health. I'll live forever!'

Anyone see the similarities?

Both are based on a total unwillingness to look at statistical probabilites and past data.

Someone please tell me who will buy the £1m starter home when we're still only earning £22k average salary?

Edited by pioneer31

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that because the crash/slump hasn't arrived (it has in my area folks) then it never will.

Take this statement....

'I'm a smoker but I won't get cancer because I'm 34 now and still in fine health. I'll live forever!'

Anyone see the similarities?

Both are based on a total unwillingness to look at statistical probabilites and past data.

Someone please tell me who will buy the £1m starter home when we're still only earning £22k average salary?

Yes, the "no crash yet = no crash ever" argument is obviously ridiculous, but it doesn't follow that the opposite is true i.e. that we will definitely have a crash. We may, we may not.

What you can say is, those who predicted that we would have had a crash by now were wrong. This does not mean that we will never have a crash, but at the very least those who predicted a crash which hasn't happened (yet) should do some thinking about why their predictions were wrong. Clearly their understanding of the market was flawed.

That's no disgrace (no-one has a crystal ball), but it does undermine their credibility when they are still trotting out the same arguments without any analysis of why they got it wrong before.

Edited by Immigrant

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As the man said half-way from falling off the Eifel Tower: "everything is just fine so far."

Crashes are always from hindsight. Most people don't see them coming, that's why they always happen.

Why is a crash 100% certain:

1. The economy is and always has been cyclical and houses are speculative commodities when affordability rises above historical norms.

2. IR are creeping higher and wages have failed to keep up with increased levels of HPI for several years now.

3. Part of the economic cycle is related to jobs and unemployment is on the rise as manufacturing contracts and City jobs await the stock market to go into bear phase which always leads to tens of thousands of jobs lost--the US is seeing this as we write.

4. Recession is already beginning in the US and as the world's largest economy it will affect other markets, especially the UK which is its NO. 2 trading partner.

5. Oil was the trigger for the last 3 HPCs and this time its different because its affecting electricity and gas prices even more.

6. FTBs are virtually gone and without bottom feeders those at the top starve.

7. BTL is at a 5 year low yield-wise thus removing professional investors.

8. The LR and FT Index shows YoY HPI slowling dramatically from double digit to low single digit inflation. Many areas are already in negative YoY territory.

9. Sentiment is shifting despite ramping by EAs, once consumer confidence is gone it will be a short sharp ride to the bottom.

10. THere has never not been a crash. :)

Betfairs odds on their being a HPC within 1 year: 1:600 :D

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Crashes are always from hindsight. Most people don't see them coming, that's why they always happen.

Now there's an error in logic: no-one thinks there's going to be a crash, so there will be a crash.

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Now there's an error in logic: no-one thinks there's going to be a crash, so there will be a crash.

Its like driving a car carelessly. You don't expect a crash so you don't keep a proper look out or read the signs. Then its too late: CRASH!

If we all saw what is coming and took evasive action then most, if not all, "accidents" or crashes would be avoided.

Gordon could have avoided Great Crash 2 if he had reigned in accomodative IR sooner, taxed 2nd homes, built more new homes, regulated the Shylocks and outlawed irresponsible loans such as IO, introduced CGT on the sale of private homes kept less than 2 years unless for a legitimate job move more than 20 miles away etc etc. By coming down hard on BTLs now (HMO taxes with power for local authorities to regulate and tax all BTLs--no matter what size) and doing a U-turn on SIPPS he is trying to bolt the barn door after the horse has scarpered. Now its crash time and Gordon gets the blame.

RB are you seriously saying that there is no room for even 0.1% uncertainty in your mind?

If someone can come up with a way of eliminating the economic cycle there is a good chance we could avoid crashes in the future. But that is a bit like wishing for a way to create perpetual motion. Boom and bust is here to stay. All you can do to beat it is to try to time the market and buy low and sell high. Most people suffer in boom and bust markets because they forget to sell high or wait too long. Don't risk all for that extra 10% but get out with 90% and be safe.

Edited by Realistbear

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RB are you seriously saying that there is no room for even 0.1% uncertainty in your mind?

Crikey no, not for me.

Since mankind came up with money and then used it to pay for stuff and then combined it with his ability to write stuff down there has never been an example of a market that has behaved as the UK housing market has to date and not crashed.

Not once..

ask yourself, if a dvd player was £100 and now costs £30.. Is the DVD player cheeper, or your money worth more.. but your money buys you less when you look at fuel or housing.. How can your money be worth more from one perspective and less from another??

Only a fool thinks that money has a constant value.. Everything ebbs and flows.

Oh yes, bull meets a bear and they laugh together at a fool..

are you a bear? a Bull or a fool?

I shall explain.

1: This is a speculative market.

2: In speculative markets there are bulls and Bears and one more.

3: A True bull must know when to turn Bear in every Speculative Market.

4: Another name for a speculative market is a "greater fool market" You are speculating on an asset class whose value is determined by speculation. You are being foolish, but you are safe if there is a greater fool.

5: There is no bull argument for a speculative market beyond that it is a speculative market.

6: Bull arguments are there for the bull to convince the fool to buy his assett.

7: A bull makes money, a fool looses money and a bear is pissed of that he didn't make any money.

8: A bull is always eventually wrong, unless he was not a fool and turned Bear.

9: A bear is always eventually right, but gets grumpy waiting to be.

The Economic Cycle does what it does, tough.

It will do what it likes regardless of if it hurst you or not, it is tragic that it will hurt people.

But you cannot change it any more then you can the weather.

If you think a market supported by "Captain Prat" With his 8 times salary self Cert IO mortgage is a good market for your cash then go to it....

If you think that Mervin King and Gordon Brown Promissing to use rising IR's to combat wage push inflation is good for the housing market think again.

No wage push inflation is what makes your loan hurt for longer. High IR's make your loan hurt worse now. They will raise IR's to protect the economy from wage push inflation, they have promised that.

read the link to the Guardian article on my footer..

wake up... its a cycle, wake up and protect yourself.

Edited by apom

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4. Recession is already beginning in the US and as the world's largest economy it will affect other markets, especially the UK which is its NO. 2 trading partner.

Realistbear,

I like a lot of what you write, but can't agree the recession is already beginning in the US.

This link was in another thread.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf

It shows US house prices (on page 47 or therabouts) that look to be holding up OK.

Any thoughts or comment?

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Guest Alright Jack

that because the crash/slump hasn't arrived (it has in my area folks) then it never will.

Take this statement....

'I'm a smoker but I won't get cancer because I'm 34 now and still in fine health. I'll live forever!'

Anyone see the similarities?

Both are based on a total unwillingness to look at statistical probabilites and past data.

Someone please tell me who will buy the £1m starter home when we're still only earning £22k average salary?

The main flaw in the HPC argument is that they believe the government will unprint all the money they've been creating.

"The federal reserve stands ready to create money in unlimited supply." - Alan Greenspam.

With guys like this in charge of the global financial system, I think the common currency is a poor yardstick in any nation.

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Realistbear,

I like a lot of what you write, but can't agree the recession is already beginning in the US.

This link was in another thread.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf

It shows US house prices (on page 47 or therabouts) that look to be holding up OK.

Any thoughts or comment?

A recession has to begin somewhere and the US HPC is well underway as many article from there attest to:

http://www.libn.com/article.htm?articleID=36121

Changing of the yard: Buyers take control
By Dawn Wotapka Hardesty
Friday, August 18, 2006
On May 10, a Long Beach beachside colonial went on the market for a hair under $800,000.
Two months later, the asking price dropped to $749,999.
Last week, agent Renee Weinberg chopped another 55 grand off the four-bedroom home.
“A year ago, I would have gotten 749 (thousand), no problem,” said the Prudential Douglas Elliman sales associate, who got an offer for $525,000.

http://www.insidebayarea.com/argus/localnews/ci_4194368

Homes sales in the Bay Area fell to their lowest level in a decade last month, while home values increased at their slowest pace in three years, a real estate tracking firm reported Wednesday.
Bay Area home sales fell more than 30 percent compared to a year ago
, and the median price was up only 3.5 percent from a year ago and were down from a record in June, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
That could spell trouble for borrowers with creative mortgages
who rely on rising appreciation to work most effectively. Sellers also may have to accept smaller appreciation gains and be willing to negotiate more with buyers.

http://www.schwabinsights.com/2006_08/mktoutlook.html

Housing’s crumbling foundation
The latest statistics are numbing:
Mortgage application volume was down nearly 30% year-over-year
in the week ending July 28; in June, housing starts were down 11% from a year ago, while existing home sales and new home sales were down 9% and 11%, respectively; the inventory of unsold homes was up nearly 40%; and most
alarming, the decline in the growth of median existing home prices was the most precipitous since 1981
.
With mortgage equity withdrawal having essentially replaced wage gains as the primary source of income gains over the last several years, consumers’ tapping of their home equity has allowed them to withstand the burgeoning cost of the aforementioned “essentials.” Although household net worth remains at record levels, 37% of it is now accounted for by real estate, up from 24% in 2000. The severe weakness in housing unequivocally reduces aggregate demand, has strong direct (home equity drawdowns) and indirect (net worth) effects on consumption, and reduces employment (30% of the growth in payrolls in the last several years was directly or indirectly related to housing). Consumers account for about two-thirds of GDP, and they’re under increasing pressure.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/conte...p+news_top+news

AUGUST 15, 2006
Investing
By Christopher Palmeri
Housing Slump Hits Big in Some States
Sales in California and other once-hot markets tumble more than 20%, thanks to rising home values and interest rates
The housing market turned in one of its worst performances in years,
with existing-home sales falling 7%, to an annual rate of 6.7 million in the second quarter, according to data released on Aug. 15 by the National Association of Realtors. The results show a clear bifurcation in the market. States that had seen a big run-up in home prices are experiencing the most
dramatics sales declines
, while markets with strong economies and lower-cost housing are still seeing sales increases.

http://sacramentolanding.blogspot.com/2006...run-median.html

Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Sacramento Sellers "Cut and Run," Median Price Drops 5% YOY
Soft landing or hard? From the Sacramento Bee:
Sacramento County posted urban California's
steepest year-over-year fall in home prices during July
as more buyers waited out a slumping market and sellers showed increasing willingness to cut and run.
Median sales prices for both new and resale homes and condominiums fell 5 percent below July 2005 levels, according to La Jolla-based researcher DataQuick Information Services. For existing single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, prices fell 3.2 percent below July 2005 to $353,250...

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/doc...ory0608-07.html

Wall Street Journal
Inventories of unsold homes continue to pile up, weighing down real estate markets in much of the U.S.
Data from ZipRealty Inc., a brokerage firm that operates in 19 metro areas across the country, show particularly large inventory increases in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Washington, D.C., and parts of California.
The growing supply of homes, particularly condominiums, has caused prices to level off in many areas and decline in some. In June, for example, the median
sale price for single-family homes was down 5%
in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Fla., area and 8% in Naples, Fla., according to the Florida Association of Realtors. The national median existing home price in June was up just 0.9% from a year earlier, the smallest year-over-year increase since May 1995.
In a more positive sign for home sellers, the National Association of Realtors' index of pending home sales in June was up 0.4% from May. But mortgage applications-a gauge of future home sales-remain weak. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications for home-purchase mortgages for the week ended Aug. 4 was down about 22% from a year earlier.

http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0806.shtm

Southland home sales
slowest in nine years;
price gains lower
August 15, 2006
La Jolla,CA----Southland home sales downshifted last month to the slowest pace in nine years as the rate of appreciation fell to the lowest level since fall 1999, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 22,712 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month, DataQuick Information Systems reported. That was down 22.3 percent from 29,237 sales in June and down 26.9 percent from 31,069 sales in July last year.
Last month's sales total marked the
lowest for a July since 1997
, when 22,302 homes sold, and fell below the July average of 24,669 going back to 1988. The strongest July was in 2003, when 33,561 homes sold, while the weakest was in 1995, with 15,077 sales.

California Foreclosure Activity Hits Three-Year High
August 2, 2006
La Jolla, CA.——Second quarter California
foreclosure activity rose at the fastest pace in at least 14 years
, the result of waning home price appreciation.
Lenders sent 20,752 default notices to homeowners statewide during the April-through-June period. That was up 10.5 percent from 18,778 the previous quarter and up 67.2 percent from 12,408 in the second quarter of last year, DataQuick Information Systems reported. Last quarter's year-over-year increase was the
highest for any quarter since DataQuick began tracking defaults in 1992.

By Roger M. Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
12:08 p.m. August 11, 2006
SAN DIEGO –
San Diego County's home prices dropped for the second straight month in July
and the dominant single-family resale market was flat for the first time in a decade, DataQuick Information Systems reported today.
The overall median price stood at $487,000, down 1.8 percent from July 2005. That was a decline greater than the 1 percent drop recorded on a year-over-year basis in June.
Local home prices have not been this low since they stood at $484,000 in April last year.

Wall Street Journal
Housing Market May Land Harder
Than Economists Expect
By Mark Whitehouse
From The Wall Street Journal Online
Home prices in some parts of the country are falling. Builders are scaling back. Bubble or not, the biggest housing boom in recent U.S. history is coming to an end.
Now here is the big question: How bad will the aftermath be? At this point, most economists expect a "soft landing," a gradual decline that won't derail the nation's economic expansion, now in its fifth year.
But there is a good chance they are being too optimistic. The boom has depended heavily on the upbeat psychology of consumers, builders and lenders. As moods swing, the landing could be very hard indeed.
"We could be underestimating the dark side,"
says Mark Zandi, chief U.S. economist at Moody's Economy.com and among the first to seek to quantify the housing boom's broader effects. "Euphoria could turn into abject pessimism very quickly."
The news from the US is grim, very grim. IN the last 4 HPCs we went down with the US bubble markets. We are about 6 months behind them and will see some real price stress this autumn, IMO.
Edited by Realistbear

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Someone please tell me who will buy the £1m starter home when we're still only earning £22k average salary?

Whoever the banks will lend the multiple to.

If foreign travel decreases and we holiday more in the rain soaked uk (drought my *&%^) then there'll be more demand for holiday cottages pushing prices even further.

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Its like driving a car carelessly. You don't expect a crash so you don't keep a proper look out or read the signs. Then its too late: CRASH!

If we all saw what is coming and took evasive action then most, if not all, "accidents" or crashes would be avoided.

Sometimes it doesn't matter what action one takes. Be it natural or unatural (evasive) sometimes it not in our hands. You drive along at 29mph checking your mirrors every 5 seconds, you've got your lights on, in broad daylight, just in case. Then whack, a joy rider flies around the bend at 80mph and hits you head on.

In the property game, risk takers are the ones making the money and often the best decisions. Those playing it safe are possibly the ones finding the first rung of the ladder is getting ever higher.

Waiting for a crash to happen, as far as driving goes is way to negative. I actually find that if I expect the worse to happen it will. That's why I couldn't care less how many black cats, magpies, ladders or whatever I encounter,I decide my own destiny..... and if I am going to get hit by a bus i'd rather not have expected it thankyou very much :D

Edited by enworb

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Sometimes it doesn't matter what action one takes. Be it natural or unatural (evasive) sometimes it not in our hands. You drive along at 29mph checking your mirrors every 5 seconds, you've got your lights on, in broad daylight, just in case. Then whack, a joy rider flies around the bend at 80mph and hits you head on.

In the property game, risk takers are the ones making the money and often the best decisions. Those playing it safe are possibly the ones finding the first rung of the ladder is getting ever higher.

Waiting for a crash to happen, as far as driving goes is way to negative. I actually find that if I expect the worse to happen it will. That's why I couldn't care less how many black cats, magpies, ladders or whatever I encounter,I decide my own destiny..... and if I am going to get hit by a bus i'd rather not have expected it thankyou very much :D

I took my risk when I sold high and re-invested the proceeds of sale in the markets. Risk is not just buying its also selling. Timing is key.

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A recession has to begin somewhere and the US HPC is well underway as many article from there attest to:

I have a busy day today, but I will rread them tomorrow.

Many thanks

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Whoever the banks will lend the multiple to.

If foreign travel decreases and we holiday more in the rain soaked uk (drought my *&%^) then there'll be more demand for holiday cottages pushing prices even further.

don't forget those rich city types ;)

People here forget that now rents don't cover BTL mortgages even vaguly

That FTB's are struggling with the interest payments they can barely make..

People also forget those rich city types.. they will rush round the country saving the day,.. spending all of their endless supplies of money to protect this market...

YAY.. houses are a tap.. they can continuously inject money into the economy just by sitting there... they are magic..

Staggers me that the current housing fool can chew gum and walk at the same time

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Guest AuntJess

I have to agree with a lot of what Realistbear says, it seems to coincide with my "take" on things.

The fact is that wages aren't rising anything like the cost of houses - and I stand to be corrected if US houses are as dear as ours. Friends and acquaintances of mine who have spent time living in the US, tell me that housing is cheaper, many of the goods are cheaper and wages are better. This all tends to give the person a larger disposable income than we have in the UK.

One young relative of mine left for the US and sold a decent pre-war semi in Cardiff suburbs and bought a humungous detached in Idaho for a commensurate price!! The kitchen you could have held a barn dance in. :P

As to house prices here: As wages don't rise anything like house prices, the ability to buy will get further and further away, unless houses significantly decrease over the next 6-7 years. Maybe all the FTB residences will be scooped up by property developers who will rent out at a price, but so many will suffer that way, as even in Council property one can make changes to one's abode. I don't think one can to a rented abode, and what guarantee would one have anyway- tarting up the place when you have no idea how long you are destined to stay there? You might find that the landlord would turf you out and benefit from the improvements made at your expense. :(

No it is totally unsatisafactory to have loadsa rentals, especially as we don't have built-in regulation here, like they seem to have on the continent.Let's face it, there are very few safeguards for the good people of the UK, whatever aspect of daily life is under scrutiny.

Edited by AuntJess

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I took my risk when I sold high and re-invested the proceeds of sale in the markets. Risk is not just buying its also selling. Timing is key.

The majority will never understand this argument. When renting becomes cheaper than buying the obvious was right in front of their noses. When business struggled at the beginning of the year it was rubbed into their faces. When the BoE raised the interest rate they were punched in the face. The final kick in the boll*cks comes next year. The next argument appears to be: The BoE won't raise interest rates further or they'll reduce them if the economy becomes fragile. :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

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Guest grumpy-old-man

As the man said half-way from falling off the Eifel Tower: "everything is just fine so far."

Crashes are always from hindsight. Most people don't see them coming, that's why they always happen.

Why is a crash 100% certain:

1. The economy is and always has been cyclical and houses are speculative commodities when affordability rises above historical norms.

2. IR are creeping higher and wages have failed to keep up with increased levels of HPI for several years now.

3. Part of the economic cycle is related to jobs and unemployment is on the rise as manufacturing contracts and City jobs await the stock market to go into bear phase which always leads to tens of thousands of jobs lost--the US is seeing this as we write.

4. Recession is already beginning in the US and as the world's largest economy it will affect other markets, especially the UK which is its NO. 2 trading partner.

5. Oil was the trigger for the last 3 HPCs and this time its different because its affecting electricity and gas prices even more.

6. FTBs are virtually gone and without bottom feeders those at the top starve.

7. BTL is at a 5 year low yield-wise thus removing professional investors.

8. The LR and FT Index shows YoY HPI slowling dramatically from double digit to low single digit inflation. Many areas are already in negative YoY territory.

9. Sentiment is shifting despite ramping by EAs, once consumer confidence is gone it will be a short sharp ride to the bottom.

10. THere has never not been a crash. :)

Betfairs odds on their being a HPC within 1 year: 1:600 :D

that pice of info is enough without the previous 10 justified economic points. The bookies NEVER get the big stuff wrong.

I haven't even got past this reply on this thread yet & felt the need to comment immediately.

We all know it's going to happen it's whether you accept that fact or not, the ones who don't are either thick, too young or are lying to themselves. All IMO of course. :rolleyes:;)

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that pice of info is enough without the previous 10 justified economic points. The bookies NEVER get the big stuff wrong.

I haven't even got past this reply on this thread yet & felt the need to comment immediately.

We all know it's going to happen it's whether you accept that fact or not, the ones who don't are either thick, too young or are lying to themselves. All IMO of course. :rolleyes:;)

You think 1:600 is good odds?

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No they are crap odds. That is the point. It's a dead cert in bookie terms.

Are you saying the bookies think it's a dead cert that we WILL have an HPC within a year? If that's the case, I'm rushing out to bet and I'm sure a lot of other people will too.

Are you sure that's not mean to be read the other way around i.e. only a 1 in 600 chance of a crash?

I'd like to know their definition of a crash - they must have it precisely defined, like a white christmas. You can bet they're so confident because of how they've defined it.

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Guest pioneer31

Betfairs odds on their being a HPC within 1 year: 1:600 :D

Jeeeeeeesus

So why are there any bulls on this site at all?

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Are you saying the bookies think it's a dead cert that we WILL have an HPC within a year? If that's the case, I'm rushing out to bet and I'm sure a lot of other people will too.

Are you sure that's not mean to be read the other way around i.e. only a 1 in 600 chance of a crash?

I'd like to know their definition of a crash - they must have it precisely defined, like a white christmas. You can bet they're so confident because of how they've defined it.

I'm not a gambler, but my understanding is thus - a bet quoted at 1:600 means that you would have to bet £600 just to win £1, so you would only win £601. If it was 600:1 then you would only have to stake £1 and would win £601.

When i said in bookies terms it's a dead cert, it doesn't mean it will happen, it just means they aren't stupid enough to lower their odds.

Please correct me if my understanding of odds, it at odds. ;-)

Edited by Jimothy

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I'm not a gambler, but my understanding is thus - a bet quoted at 1:600 means that you would have to bet £600 just to win £1, so you would only win £601. If it was 600:1 then you would only have to stake £1 and would win £601.

When i said in bookies terms it's a dead cert, it doesn't mean it will happen, it just means they aren't stupid enough to lower their odds.

Please correct me if my understanding of odds, it at odds. ;-)

you are indeed correct, place £600 to recieve £1 & your original stake back.......so you make £1 for your efforts. (I haven't checked the actual betfair odds on this, RB can you confirm as I can't find the facts)

you obviously need an account before you can search, can someone with one have a loofk as I am watching xfactor :blink:

THE BOOKIES NEVER GET THE BIG STUFF WRONG :ph34r:

fact disclaimer: all facts/stats on my replies are tbc ;)

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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Betfairs odds on their being a HPC within 1 year: 1:600 :D

I am astonished that not one of the people who have commented on this remarkable claim has pointed out that this statistic is nowhere to be found on the Betfair website.

At least, I can't find it, and yes, I have an account.

The nearest I can see is Financial Bets - House Prices - London/National Std Price for Aug/Sep 06.

Moreover, Betfair do not allow trading in odds shorter than 1:100 (1.01 in decimal terms). 1:600 would be 1.001666... in decimal odds notation.

RB or anyone, please clarify these points. If verified, it is a fascinating and powerful argument for a crash. (Oh, and we need the BF definition of this. Personally nothing less than a 20% peak-to-trough decline will serve.)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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