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Bobbins

Prime Central London Is Where It Starts

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It all started with the IR cut last August, and HPI started to take off in central London. It tooks 6 months for the ripple effect to get to the home counties and beyond.

The theory goes that after HPI in central London has slowed/stopped, the ripple effect means that HPI in the land beyond can still be rampant. However the slowdown trough will eventually be distributed throughout the country.

If this theory is correct, are any of you Londoners seeing a slowdown at the moment? I'm based in SW London and have noticed that prices have started to grind to a halt. I believe this is a good sign.

Oh yes, and before you Stoke-on-Trent/M'Boro/Blackpool HPCers etc. etc. etc. wade in and say who gives a **** about London - troll, troll, troll etc., take a night off.

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If this theory is correct, are any of you Londoners seeing a slowdown at the moment? I'm based in SW London and have noticed that prices have started to grind to a halt. I believe this is a good sign.

Prices in London itself (I seldom venture South of the river) are rocketing to new highs. Rents too, so you can't easily wait it out either.

HTH.

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If this theory is correct, are any of you Londoners seeing a slowdown at the moment? I'm based in SW London and have noticed that prices have started to grind to a halt. I believe this is a good sign.

Oh yes, and before you Stoke-on-Trent/M'Boro/Blackpool HPCers etc. etc. etc. wade in and say who gives a **** about London - troll, troll, troll etc., take a night off.

From what I can see London Prices are steady. Flats that were £200k in 2005 are coming back on at £210k etc. So in that sense I suppose things are coming back to a sensible level again at about 5% per annum. My concern is that the run up to the Olympics will send everyone into a frenzy again in London and I see there being some sort of correction happening in 2013.

With London everybody I know who has bought there, is buying there or even the few that are investing in London property have told me that they believe the boom will come 2009,10 and 11 as the media push Olympic fever to new heights in this country. They will hold on to their properties through hell and high water until that period because they believe that is when they will cash in. If you invest hundreds of millions into an area of London that is historically the cheapest area for housing you create a massive ripple. All of a sudden Mr Smith from Stratford sells his 2 bed terrace for £500k and decides to move his family to Hertford where he buys a 3 bed semi. Mr Chav sells his 2 bed ex local authority flat in Hackney for £260k and decides to buy a nice 2 bed flat in Croydon. Mr Croydon takes that money and decides to buy a 2 bed semi in Burgess Hill etc etc.

But there will be post olympic depression as people suddenly realise a year later that they have paid £500k for a house in an area surrounded by social housing and immigrant ghettos as well as a few running tracks and olympic sized swimming pools.

So I would advise anybody thinking of buying in London either get in now or wait 7 or 8 years but even then you will be paying in my opinion a lot more than you will be now.

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Living in east Ham I can tell you that asking prices have increased a significant amount in the last year. There are basically no 2BR terraces under £190K now - last summer there were quite a few around the £170K mark (and increasing). Judging by the For Sale/Sold boards - there are far less of both compared to last year. Estate agents are no busier than last summer (which was deathly quiet).

The number of skips in the street remains steady. The local M&S closed down a few months ago (as did one of the EAs :lol:) and Argos is no where near as busy as it was in 2003/4. And my favoured statistic of financial pain - the index of SUVs for sale in the streets ticked up in Spring and is now holding steady.

adibrown hypothesis is a plausible - but frightening - one. Average local salary has actually dipped by 4K to 20K in the last six years - meanwhile houseprices have gone from an average of 80K to more than 200K. It can only be investor activity or some pretty stretched locals holding these prices up.

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Prices in London itself (I seldom venture South of the river) are rocketing to new highs. Rents too, so you can't easily wait it out either.

HTH.

You have to watch your areas though as some* parts are seeing further delines according to the latest LR data:

All:

Kensington And Chelsea

£808,585 Q: -2.3% YoY: 8.6% 952

City Of Westminster

£605,549 -5.1% 16.4% 1322

Camden

£476,622 -4.4% 2.4% 825

Richmond Upon Thames

£420,952 -0.2% 1.3% 1124

Hillingdon

£245,654 -0.8% 5.3% 1116

Sutton

£235,170 -0.9% 6.9% 993

Detached:

City Of Westminster

£1,979,777 -42.5% 81.4% 3

Merton

£1,014,000 -14.6% -14.6% 31

Haringey

£973,461 -20.0% 60.5% 13

Southwark

£903,833 -4.7% 73.1% 12

Richmond Upon Thames

£836,305 -16.3% -3.1% 63

Barnet

£826,412 -0.1% 2.6% 109

Kingston Upon Thames

£558,141 -12.3% -6.1% 79

Sutton

£474,094 -6.9% 3.2% 82

Hillingdon

£469,832 -1.8% 8.6% 113

Greenwich

£458,628 -32.3% -9.5% 31

Sources:

England and Wales

Land Registry of England and Wales. The information above is based on figures provided by the Land Registry of England and Wales.

Figures for England and Wales are for the period April to June 2006.

Bottom line for London is that with the turn in the market its best to be highly selective and watch the areas that are going down the hardest as that is where the best bargains will be a couple of years from now. Only some* areas are falling so you have to do your research.

_________________________

*Some areas are falling, not all areas.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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