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Am I ****!!

My mamma didn't raise no fool.

My name is not Moosetea.

Keep it real people, keep the faith do not make a mistake like the big ugly moose did.

At least hold out till next autumn to see where it's heading and then buy if you feel you must. The times they are a changing.

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At least hold out till next autumn to see where it's heading and then buy if you feel you must. The times they are a changing.

Hmmm, sounds like the stuff that was said a couple years ago.

<_<

Usual tripe from the perma bear (mental) community, don't like what someone says, why resort to reasoned argument and facts when insults could do. No wonder HPC is seen as a loony fringe by everyone but HPC.

:rolleyes:

But I would be lying if I said I didn't like it that way.

:lol:

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Am I ****!!

My mamma didn't raise no fool.

My name is not Moosetea.

Keep it real people, keep the faith do not make a mistake like the big ugly moose did.

At least hold out till next autumn to see where it's heading and then buy if you feel you must. The times they are a changing.

ooooo another year of renting, the BTL's must be rubbing their hands. Please encourage more people to rent they will be saying and you are doing just that. Great Stuff. Why make it Autumn next year it sounds like your heading for a lifetime of renting. And when the rents start rising and the house prices are out of reach what then Mr Bear, what then....... :o

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ooooo another year of renting, the BTL's must be rubbing their hands. Please encourage more people to rent they will be saying and you are doing just that. Great Stuff. Why make it Autumn next year it sounds like your heading for a lifetime of renting. And when the rents start rising and the house prices are out of reach what then Mr Bear, what then....... :o

<_<

Rents are rising in my area (N Yorks), HPI may be up a bit too. The renting vs buying argument has been losing weight where I live at the moment.

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ooooo another year of renting, the BTL's must be rubbing their hands. Please encourage more people to rent they will be saying and you are doing just that. Great Stuff. Why make it Autumn next year it sounds like your heading for a lifetime of renting. And when the rents start rising and the house prices are out of reach what then Mr Bear, what then....... :o

No one will ever buy a house again? Ever? :rolleyes:

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ooooo another year of renting, the BTL's must be rubbing their hands. Please encourage more people to rent they will be saying and you are doing just that. Great Stuff. Why make it Autumn next year it sounds like your heading for a lifetime of renting. And when the rents start rising and the house prices are out of reach what then Mr Bear, what then....... :o

Recent articles state that yields are at a 5 year low due to capital cost, rising IR and stagnant wages. With HPI slowing capital appreciation moving forward will be non-existent and very likely negative in a few months.

In some cases renting makes a lot of sense. I am in the W Midlands where house prices have been falling steadlily for about 18 months. I have my STM funds invested at 5.05% with a smattering of stocks and bonds that have yielded about 12% over the past 12 months. I pay £750 p.m. rent. I will be in the market for a detached house that would have sold for around £300k at the top and which is about £270k by now. THus, I have "made" £30k on the price fall while making 5% or more on my STM funds. I am renting a house that had a market value of about £350 for a very low rent as this area cannot handle high rents due to low wages.

Renting on a stagnant to falling property market can be extremely profitable.

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Hmmm, sounds like the stuff that was said a couple years ago.

<_<

Usual tripe from the perma bear (mental) community, don't like what someone says, why resort to reasoned argument and facts when insults could do. No wonder HPC is seen as a loony fringe by everyone but HPC.

:rolleyes:

But I would be lying if I said I didn't like it that way.

:lol:

80% of people i know are not renting they are living with family and stuffing stacks of cash away.. there is an alternative to renting.

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Recent articles state that yields are at a 5 year low due to capital cost, rising IR and stagnant wages. With HPI slowing capital appreciation moving forward will be non-existent and very likely negative in a few months.

In some cases renting makes a lot of sense. I am in the W Midlands where house prices have been falling steadlily for about 18 months. I have my STM funds invested at 5.05% with a smattering of stocks and bonds that have yielded about 12% over the past 12 months. I pay £750 p.m. rent. I will be in the market for a detached house that would have sold for around £300k at the top and which is about £270k by now. THus, I have "made" £30k on the price fall while making 5% or more on my STM funds. I am renting a house that had a market value of about £350 for a very low rent as this area cannot handle high rents due to low wages.

Renting on a stagnant to falling property market can be extremely profitable.

RB is about spot on,I put my house on the market at the peak in November 2004;EA suggested 315k to get 300K.But at that point the East midland market collapsed,I eventually sold via a part exchange deal and became a renter in june2006,but net proceeds were 270K down 30k.

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RB is about spot on,I put my house on the market at the peak in November 2004;EA suggested 315k to get 300K.But at that point the East midland market collapsed,I eventually sold via a part exchange deal and became a renter in june2006,but net proceeds were 270K down 30k.

Can I ask how much you paid for the property originally ?

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RB is about spot on,I put my house on the market at the peak in November 2004;EA suggested 315k to get 300K.But at that point the East midland market collapsed,I eventually sold via a part exchange deal and became a renter in june2006,but net proceeds were 270K down 30k.

Has the east midlands picked up again since then?

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80% of people i know are not renting they are living with family and stuffing stacks of cash away.. there is an alternative to renting.

Yep, same here. Most people I know that have been priced out are certainly not about to fund the BTL brigade. I am surprised this hasn't been mentioned before- I don't see a great mass of humanity desperate to live in your BTL flats at whatever rental rate suits your debt repayment needs. With SO many BTL flats washing around the system and with wages pretty static I just don't see how rents are going to keep on rising. People who don't own property aren't morons and can use supply and demand in their favour.

If you base your thinking around what you can comfortably afford to repay it doesn't matter if it's rent or mortgage- if it's too much for your wages it's too much- end of. Not everyone wants to live by the seat of their pants where a fractional rise in interest rates can bring the whole house of cards falling.

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Can I ask how much you paid for the property originally ?

I paid £77000 for the property in September 1996 and spent £18000 in improvements,though i reckon £2000 per year is par for the course when you are a homeowner.The indicies over-state returns because of the ever improving stock.

Has the east midlands picked up again since then?

Not in the Notts Derbys area it hasn't.I guess there is achance of a ralley in the Autumn if the ripple from the South East arrives.Reading posts from members down there is surprising given the depth of the fall in the Midlands.

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Rents go up -> wages follow -> interest rates follow -> house prices fall -> BTL doesn't seem like such a good idea -> PANIC

Doesn't sound like a panic scenario to me.

Rents down + IR up + HP down: now that would be panic.

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I paid £77000 for the property in September 1996 and spent £18000 in improvements,though i reckon £2000 per year is par for the course when you are a homeowner.The indicies over-state returns because of the ever improving stock.

Not in the Notts Derbys area it hasn't.I guess there is achance of a ralley in the Autumn if the ripple from the South East arrives.Reading posts from members down there is surprising given the depth of the fall in the Midlands.

Oh my god what a disaster, my sympathies are with you. Only £180k. You must be gutted with that kind of profit for your house in the East Midlands. I mean the market dropping must have really hit you in the pocket. At the end of the day you probably overvalued your house in the first place. My folks are from Ilkeston in Derbyshire and they had a property there. Now I have spent some time there and I have to say it is a Sh'thole. I mean I thought Stoke On Trent was bad but this place...oh my god. Now I dont think anybody has desired to live there ever but some people understandably may have to live there but they are earning something like £8k a year or something stupid like that. Anyway all of a sudden terraced houses are on sale for £140k and you think "hang on this is getting out of hand". The locals think their Xmas's have come early, their walking around with £100k equity (false money) and remortgaging for £30k because their son who works in a bank (and therefore is the local genius financial whizzkid) read about it in his pigeon weekly magazine. So when you walk down the local high street there either in Dixons buying a £2,000 plasma or in First choice booking 2 weeks to the maldives. You look and you think "f@@king hell these guys must be wetting themselves until this point they were lucky to grab two weeks in Skegness". So when they get back she's buying herself Prada and he's just bought himself one of those new Mondeo's. Sarah Beeny has shown them the way so they start laying laminate throughout and all of a sudden its "ey up duck we'll make aselves a cracking profit on our 2 up 2 down mansion". She starts talking dead posh as do all her friends with their new found wealth. They start looking for their next investment and can't find anything apart from a 2 bed ex local authority flat in the local estate in Cotmanhay (rough area of Ilkeston). They obviously think they are property developers all of a sudden because the EA has been around and told them there house is now worth £155k. So they decide to remortgage for another £40k and get a BTL mortgage for £45k to buy their 2 bed BTL. He spends £5k on the credit card to lay some more laminate and put a new kitchen in.

One day he wakes up before going to his job in factory for £8k a year and he suddenly realises the reality of what has happened. He has a crappy 2 up 2 down house in a town nobody wants to live in with no local employment etc and on top of that he has a pokey 2 bedroom council flat that nobody wants to rent. The big difference is that rather than his nice £30k mortgage (£130 a month) he now has £145k (£690 a month) mortgage and £5k creditcard bill. He needs to rent his ex-council flat but nobody wants it for £250 a month so he has to bring it down to £200 and rents it to his sons mate. So the only tangible difference in his life is he is paying £360 a month more which is half his wage and he has a new car and a TV.

So in essence all that has happened is the bank has got him to borrow a load of money from them.

Now this isnt a story but is actually happening with friends of my Mum and Dad. What really stings is that they have been talked into genuinely believing that the delapidated down the pan town they live in is now a "desirable commuter town excellently located for both Nottingham and Derby". All of a sudden that street that they wouldnt even board up because it wasnt worth the wood is now within minutes of public transport and highly sought after by the young professional". Well why wouldnt you believe what they are telling you when you can go down the pub and say you are a "property developer" who holidays in the Maldives and drives a brand new estate car. "not Mr Nobody anymore, I'm a landlord...I've been thinking about expanding my Portfolio..Craig down the Post Office tells me you can easily own 10 properties within a few years...".

But you're not a bear I hear you say. Well I'm not a Bull either. I think the South East is correctly priced and may even rise over the next few years. All these other areas of the UK are so overpriced its unbelievable. Common sense will start to kick in and it is in these areas where we will see small crashes. I mean CrashMonitor you have done so well to get out of that market with so much money and even though you think that £30k is a loss you might be right but I think you should be more importantly looking at how you have managed to triple your money with a property that is in an area of the UK which is undesirable. I mean Humberside, Teeside, Birmingham, Bolton, Bradford, Stoke, Swansea, Derby whats going on, why are new developments even being built in these areas? Didn't they have rows and rows of empty houses where people had fled elsewhere in search of work? Arent they areas suffering industrial decline? Who's paying £250k for executive flats in Hull?

Sorry just had to have that rant.

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Has the east midlands picked up again since then?

They are flying of the EA windows round by me in the East Mids. Multiple offers, even had someone offer me £10K more than the asking price for mine.

Well thats what i'm going to tell the next prospective buyer when someone shows their face :P .

East Mids is as best stagnant at worse taking a 10-20% hit. Again reductions are definately the order of the day but its difficult to say exactly what is going on because of initial overpricing. Alot of window shoppers coming around, but chains are beginning to open up, thats the def. impression i'm getting in relation to mid-high end of the market, the winter months should be interesting.

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Oh my god what a disaster, my sympathies are with you. Only £180k. You must be gutted with that kind of profit for your house in the East Midlands. I mean the market dropping must have really hit you in the pocket. At the end of the day you probably overvalued your house in the first place. My folks are from Ilkeston in Derbyshire and they had a property there. Now I have spent some time there and I have to say it is a Sh'thole. I mean I thought Stoke On Trent was bad but this place...oh my god. Now I dont think anybody has desired to live there ever but some people understandably may have to live there but they are earning something like £8k a year or something stupid like that. Anyway all of a sudden terraced houses are on sale for £140k and you think "hang on this is getting out of hand". The locals think their Xmas's have come early, their walking around with £100k equity (false money) and remortgaging for £30k because their son who works in a bank (and therefore is the local genius financial whizzkid) read about it in his pigeon weekly magazine. So when you walk down the local high street there either in Dixons buying a £2,000 plasma or in First choice booking 2 weeks to the maldives. You look and you think "f@@king hell these guys must be wetting themselves until this point they were lucky to grab two weeks in Skegness". So when they get back she's buying herself Prada and he's just bought himself one of those new Mondeo's. Sarah Beeny has shown them the way so they start laying laminate throughout and all of a sudden its "ey up duck we'll make aselves a cracking profit on our 2 up 2 down mansion". She starts talking dead posh as do all her friends with their new found wealth. They start looking for their next investment and can't find anything apart from a 2 bed ex local authority flat in the local estate in Cotmanhay (rough area of Ilkeston). They obviously think they are property developers all of a sudden because the EA has been around and told them there house is now worth £155k. So they decide to remortgage for another £40k and get a BTL mortgage for £45k to buy their 2 bed BTL. He spends £5k on the credit card to lay some more laminate and put a new kitchen in.

One day he wakes up before going to his job in factory for £8k a year and he suddenly realises the reality of what has happened. He has a crappy 2 up 2 down house in a town nobody wants to live in with no local employment etc and on top of that he has a pokey 2 bedroom council flat that nobody wants to rent. The big difference is that rather than his nice £30k mortgage (£130 a month) he now has £145k (£690 a month) mortgage and £5k creditcard bill. He needs to rent his ex-council flat but nobody wants it for £250 a month so he has to bring it down to £200 and rents it to his sons mate. So the only tangible difference in his life is he is paying £360 a month more which is half his wage and he has a new car and a TV.

So in essence all that has happened is the bank has got him to borrow a load of money from them.

Now this isnt a story but is actually happening with friends of my Mum and Dad. What really stings is that they have been talked into genuinely believing that the delapidated down the pan town they live in is now a "desirable commuter town excellently located for both Nottingham and Derby". All of a sudden that street that they wouldnt even board up because it wasnt worth the wood is now within minutes of public transport and highly sought after by the young professional". Well why wouldnt you believe what they are telling you when you can go down the pub and say you are a "property developer" who holidays in the Maldives and drives a brand new estate car. "not Mr Nobody anymore, I'm a landlord...I've been thinking about expanding my Portfolio..Craig down the Post Office tells me you can easily own 10 properties within a few years...".

But you're not a bear I hear you say. Well I'm not a Bull either. I think the South East is correctly priced and may even rise over the next few years. All these other areas of the UK are so overpriced its unbelievable. Common sense will start to kick in and it is in these areas where we will see small crashes. I mean CrashMonitor you have done so well to get out of that market with so much money and even though you think that £30k is a loss you might be right but I think you should be more importantly looking at how you have managed to triple your money with a property that is in an area of the UK which is undesirable. I mean Humberside, Teeside, Birmingham, Bolton, Bradford, Stoke, Swansea, Derby whats going on, why are new developments even being built in these areas? Didn't they have rows and rows of empty houses where people had fled elsewhere in search of work? Arent they areas suffering industrial decline? Who's paying £250k for executive flats in Hull?

Sorry just had to have that rant.

I agree with everything you say,you are backing up my point that yhe East Midlands price has fallen.I am renting in an area that is a s***hole.The area I sold in of the East Midlands was a little better than the Ilkeston area where Iam now,the derbyshire dales.It is the sixth wealthiest borough in the country by assets(source Halifax).The fall has not just been confined to s***hole locations but spread across all the North of the region.

Thank you again for confirming falls in one part of the provinces.Whenever me or Realistbear point out that prices peaked in 2004 in the Midlands it is usually rubbished.

Also I am pleased with the profit I have taken from my moorland cottage,I only mentioned the 30K fall to back up RBs contention that 300K property in the Midlands had fallen 10%.He was spot on.

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I agree with everything you say,you are backing up my point that yhe East Midlands price has fallen.I am renting in an area that is a s***hole.The area I sold in of the East Midlands was a little better than the Ilkeston area where Iam now,the derbyshire dales.It is the sixth wealthiest borough in the country by assets(source Halifax).The fall has not just been confined to s***hole locations but spread across all the North of the region.

Thank you again for confirming falls in one part of the provinces.Whenever me or Realistbear point out that prices peaked in 2004 in the Midlands it is usually rubbished.

Also I am pleased with the profit I have taken from my moorland cottage,I only mentioned the 30K fall to back up RBs contention that 300K property in the Midlands had fallen 10%.He was spot on.

Yes you should be pleased with that, my folks did the same thing and bought somewhere in France for cash with the cash they made. I felt sorry for the people that bought their place. It was in an area called Larklands and even though if I remember rightly it had asbestos tiles on the outside it went for about £120k and that was 3-4 years ago. They had owned it for about 18 months and bought for £36k. The funny thing is that before they went to France they decided to put their cash in 2 houses in Withernsea, Humberside HU19. They paid £36k for one and £40k for the other. 9 months later they went for £78k and £82k respectively. So they did very well out of the Northern Market or the House of Cards as I like to call it. I remember visiting Withernsea just as they had sold and when we went to the local estate agents there was a queue!!! the first time I have actually seen people queuing for an estate agents. Almost without exception every person in the queue was from the South, all very cocky with their clipboards and folders.

It was at that point I realised that every corner of the country was being invaded as people looked to get in to a local market before it increased. This was artificially rising the prices of property in areas which have been traditionally depressed. When prices are high in areas like Nottingham and Derby local people who are just desperate to get on the property ladder or desperate to get into BTL + BTL's from other areas will look anywhere cheap (such as Ilkeston, Heanor, Eastwood) that in turn pushes those prices up. The problem is that as soon as prices fall in the nicer areas these people will look to move back and as the FTB locals dont have the cash and BTL wont look at the area anymore and without local employment (Well offering salaries £25k+) without this artificial driving force the prices will absolutely collapse. Thats my worry with these areas.

Now you are right about the Derbyshire Dales. Areas like the Peak District- Bakewell, Castleton and Matlock Bath etc have been traditionally higher priced and will possibly be protected from any major crash but of course prices will fall in these areas. But these areas arent your traditional midlands depressed Mining towns and they will always appeal.

Dont get me wrong as well I dont see this as being a purely northern problem. Areas such as Mid Devon and parts of Cornwall will also feel the effects. Traditionally these areas have been very cheap because they have no industry and very poor transport links. That is still the case so why are the prices so high? Because they have been artifically driven up by property speculators.

I see 10-15% drops probably more in these areas by this time next year. The South East will remain at about 3-5% by the end of 2007 dragged down between November 2006 and April 2007 by another 0.25% rise in IR in November but a quiet Xmas commercially and a supermarket/High Street price war early 2007 will drive inflation to below 2% and IR's will remain held and as such confidence will return in Spring 2007. A new surge in sales Spring 2007 will see an increase similar to this year in the SE but the provinces will struggle to recover with lots of BTL moving out of the provinces and back to their traditional roots in London.

My Crystal Ball goes back now :blink:

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Doesn't sound like a panic scenario to me.

Rents down + IR up + HP down: now that would be panic.

That's what's happening around me, And I am defo witnessing a panic. 30% of properties in the market are offering NO CHAIN.

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80% of people i know are not renting they are living with family and stuffing stacks of cash away.. there is an alternative to renting.

D*mn, they need to stop scrounging off their parents. How old are they and doesn't it drive them nuts?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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