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gruffydd

Great Article On Immigration - Mentions House Prices

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...8/18/do1801.xml

Over the past few years, average prices of new homes for first-time buyers have increased sharply, often putting home ownership out of their reach. According to a Halifax survey, the average house price rose from about £86,000 in 2001 to £177,000 today. Immigration is not the only cause, and the tendency to live in smaller households has played its part, but no honest voice denies that immigration is a major factor. Moreover, immigration can be controlled, whereas the rate of family breakdown and the desire to live alone are not so easily influenced by the Government.

Between 1996 and 2004, net international migration has averaged 140,000 a year, when the Government's household projections, which are used to estimate the demand for housing, were based on 65,000 per year.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...8/18/do1801.xml

Over the past few years, average prices of new homes for first-time buyers have increased sharply, often putting home ownership out of their reach. According to a Halifax survey, the average house price rose from about £86,000 in 2001 to £177,000 today. Immigration is not the only cause, and the tendency to live in smaller households has played its part, but no honest voice denies that immigration is a major factor. Moreover, immigration can be controlled, whereas the rate of family breakdown and the desire to live alone are not so easily influenced by the Government.

Between 1996 and 2004, net international migration has averaged 140,000 a year, when the Government's household projections, which are used to estimate the demand for housing, were based on 65,000 per year.

I love it when a mainstream newspaper catches up to what intelligent people have already known about for months in advance. So it must be that journalists don't hang out with intelligent people, just drugged up idealists probably.

#Scoobydoo#

:ph34r:

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...8/18/do1801.xml

Over the past few years, average prices of new homes for first-time buyers have increased sharply, often putting home ownership out of their reach. According to a Halifax survey, the average house price rose from about £86,000 in 2001 to £177,000 today. Immigration is not the only cause, and the tendency to live in smaller households has played its part, but no honest voice denies that immigration is a major factor. Moreover, immigration can be controlled, whereas the rate of family breakdown and the desire to live alone are not so easily influenced by the Government.

Between 1996 and 2004, net international migration has averaged 140,000 a year, when the Government's household projections, which are used to estimate the demand for housing, were based on 65,000 per year.

What's your problem with immigrants, Gruff?

Do you face racism when you cross over here from Taffyland regularly? I hope not.

p

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There was a programme on C4 last night praising mass immigration and how we'd be screwed without it. It seemed to concentrate on the fact that immigration is keeping interest rates low. So as well as increased demand for homes it is helping keep rates down, so not really helping the hpc argument, which is blindingly obvious anyway.

Edited by simon99

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As the respected think-tank Migration Watch UK has shown, using the Government's own figures, over the same period the housing stock fell short of household formation by 370,000 and about 70 per cent of this shortfall was the result of additional immigration. There has been an impact on social housing, too.

Not sure if Gordon can build enough new houses for the numbers of immigrants he is allowing to enter to prop up HPI-MEW. Looks like Gordon's miracle economy has done little more for the country than to inflate house prices, raise debt levels to record levels and added to the housing shortage and strain on social services. Nice one Gordon. Moving into No. 10 soon are we? :angry:

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As the respected think-tank Migration Watch UK has shown, using the Government's own figures, over the same period the housing stock fell short of household formation by 370,000 and about 70 per cent of this shortfall was the result of additional immigration. There has been an impact on social housing, too.

Not sure if Gordon can build enough new houses for the numbers of immigrants he is allowing to enter to prop up HPI-MEW. Looks like Gordon's miracle economy has done little more for the country than to inflate house prices, raise debt levels to record levels and added to the housing shortage and strain on social services. Nice one Gordon. Moving into No. 10 soon are we? :angry:

So are you admitting to an housing shortage now then Realistbear ?

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What's your problem with immigrants, Gruff?

Do you face racism when you cross over here from Taffyland regularly? I hope not.

p

Yawn.

If the 140k immigrants were white anglo-saxon Americans, would it still be racist to object? Its about cultural carrying capacity, not race. Your attitude is at the very centre of the problem, moreso than the immigrants themselves. Please wake up.

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Immigration is not the cause of the house price boom, all the Immigrants put together are just a few percent of the size of the British population, this would not itself cause a 100+% rise in the price of property (a rise that started that before they came). That's just a post-hoc rationalisation. This is happening with a lot of countries because people see property as the thing to buy and something that can only go up in price, that is not true.

Houses are a manufactured good, they have costs associated with building them that have not gone up that much, and there is a possiblity that the production could so totally mechanised in the not too distant future that they could even be grown like plants using the soil and the sun.

Latvia has had its house prices go up by 45% in the last year...and it got 64 immigrants that year, 0.7% per immigrant. Kenya has had increasing house prices even as 20% of the population is due to die of Aids, Zimbabwe has had rising house prices even though female life expectancy has dropped bellow 30 years. It's madness!

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Its about cultural carrying capacity...

I've no idea what your talking about. I shouldn't think you do, either!

p

As the respected think-tank Migration Watch UK has shown...

Respected!! Respected!! Who the hell by?

Isn't this the Far Right, "We're a pure Arian race", mad mob that pop up from the gutter every so often then disappear again. They're led by that wild-eyed pillock that even makes John Redwood seem normal, aren't they?

Respected!! My @rse, they are!

p

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Houses are a manufactured good, they have costs associated with building them that have not gone up that much, and there is a possiblity that the production could so totally mechanised in the not too distant future that they could even be grown like plants using the soil and the sun.

Growing houses like plants "in the not too distant future"???

Say No to drugs Della! :lol:

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I've no idea what your talking about. I shouldn't think you do, either!

p

You could be right, its something I read in a Journal many years ago, but I Have read about the issues you feel better ignored.

Race/colour/origin has nothing to do with who takes my slice of the cake, the simple fact is someone took my cake that wasn't there before and naturally, I'm a bit miffed. There just isn't enough cake, and by cake I'm not talking houses, I'm talking jobs, wages, services and the quality of life we as a nation have come to expect. You must have a lot of cake locked away to not have to worry about immigration. I wish I had that absolute security, then I could hijack reasoned debate with my own irrelevant opinions too.

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Growing houses like plants "in the not too distant future"???

Say No to drugs Della! :lol:

OK, there are several ways this could be done I think.

For example:

Houses can be built of wood, what if someone geneticly engineered a fast growing tree that grew into the shape of a house or part of a house?

It may seem unlikley but not something you can totally dismiss.

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Immigration is not the cause of the house price boom

Not the sole cause but a million people entering the UK must have an effect.

I can not believe that anyone really thinks that population rises have no effect what so ever. Now of course there are other factors but please.

Next you will be saying just because immigrants are luckier getting council houses that does not mean that is why we don't get any.

BTW my wife is an immigrant but that does not mean I do not believe

more people + same number of houses = housing crisis.

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Not the sole cause but a million people entering the UK must have an effect.

I can not believe that anyone really thinks that population rises have no effect what so ever. Now of course there are other factors but please.

Next you will be saying just because immigrants are luckier getting council houses that does not mean that is why we don't get any.

BTW my wife is an immigrant but that does not mean I do not believe

more people + same number of houses = housing crisis.

It's barely believable that people will argue that more people doesn't equal more demand for houses.

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It's barely believable that people will argue that more people doesn't equal more demand for houses.

Depends who these people are, what they get paid, and the kind of houses they want, surely?

It's quite conceivable that transient or EU immigrants might not increase demand for houses, for example. Or, imagine that a house that would have been sold otherwise to a single FTB, or an FTB couple, might be BTLed and rented out instead to 4 Australian nurses or 5 Polish construction workers or an Indian doctor and his extended family. The FTB and his girlfriend that would have bought that house keep living with their parents instead because they can't afford to buy. Has that increased the demand for houses?

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Depends who these people are, what they get paid, and the kind of houses they want, surely?

It's quite conceivable that transient or EU immigrants might not increase demand for houses, for example. Or, imagine that a house that would have been sold otherwise to a single FTB, or an FTB couple, might be BTLed and rented out instead to 4 Australian nurses or 5 Polish construction workers or an Indian doctor and his extended family. The FTB and his girlfriend that would have bought that house keep living with their parents instead because they can't afford to buy. Has that increased the demand for houses?

Incredible, of course it has, do you think people will be living with their parents forever? Instead of two people looking to buy/rent a house theres still those two plus 4 or 5 more.

If a lorry load of bread and water comes in a relief lorry in a famine ridden area and there's not enough to go round are you saying that because some would have to go without there is not the demand? And that if another 500 people arrived for a share the demand would not have increased because they could just break it up into minute portions?

Edited by simon99

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Full nanotechnology (a couple of decades away) would be able "grow" anything from mobiles to skyscrapers.

Beware predicting the future of technology! Pundits have more often than not got it wrong. Incidently, I have worked on nanotechnologty, and the above statement seems optimistic to me at best. THough of course I might be wrong :lol:

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It's barely believable that people will argue that more people doesn't equal more demand for houses.

Demand is not the same as need, at least not in the economics sense of the word, which I assume is what people mean when they say that more people do not equal more demand.

Demand is the quantity of a good that consumers are not only willing to purchase but also have the capacity to buy at the given price per unit of time.

To take an extreme example to illustrate my point, if you sell bread at £1 000 0000 a loaf in a poor famine stricken area, demand will be zero because bno-one can pay for it, despite the obvious need for your bread.

So, it may be that more immigrants who typically take lower paid jobs will not increase demand, because they do not have the money to do so, even though they might need houses.

In that sense, I would argue that more people do not automatically equal more demand for houses.

Which part is optimistic? The time schedule, or making skyscrapers?

Both! Though I worked on a very specific area, unrelated to skycrapers, so I do not claim to be an expert. Come to think of it, I did touch on the concept of self-assembly, a big idea in nanotechnology and it seems to me a long way before we can self assemble skyscrapers.

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Demand is not the same as need, at least not in the economics sense of the word, which I assume is what people mean when they say that more people do not equal more demand.

That's alright then, as long as people only 'need' housing there's nothing to worry about.

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Well the only official thing I've seen about schedule was from the Whitehouse Office of Science and Technology Policy who stated in a nineties paper that preliminary nanotech molecular manufacturing could be expected to arrive in 2007 or thereafter. Most involved think a functional system will arrive between 2010 and 2020.

DNA machines have already been built that can play tic tac toe.

See here for a quick description.

http://www.trnmag.com/Stories/2003/082703/...toe_082703.html

so ahead of schedule then.

but I have yet to see a truly useful application, that is not just biology (like PCR for instance). But I may be poorly informed.

As for size, naturally evolved nanotech systems build blue wales and giant redwoods and a 2,200 acre fungus in Oregon. I doubt that manmade systems will do worse, although it might not be efficient to build large things in one piece.

I precisely encountered nanotechnology as part of my PhD in biotechnology and I still think it will be a while before we can grow anything that big if ever. But as I said, pundits have a history of getting it wrong and there is no reason I should be an exception.

I thought we were going to be using flying cars by now and that energy would be so cheap it would not be metered. :lol:

Edited by Bucephalus

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That's alright then, as long as people only 'need' housing there's nothing to worry about.

I am not suggesting that there is no problem. Only that the average brit can't really afford a house already, so a poor immigrant won't be able too either and hence won't directly affect prices.

That is not to say that their needs will not cause other problems or have an indirect effect, for instance through council housing.

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Funny old argument is immigration. Rarely do you hear the mention of how UK ex-pats have effects on the communities to which they move to. Wonder how the UK would react if the ex-pats were sent back from their adoptive countries? I would guess that of the millions of ex-pats out there, you would really see the housing market start to dance!

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Guest AuntJess

Funny old argument is immigration. Rarely do you hear the mention of how UK ex-pats have effects on the communities to which they move to. Wonder how the UK would react if the ex-pats were sent back from their adoptive countries? I would guess that of the millions of ex-pats out there, you would really see the housing market start to dance!

Well you have just put forward a funny old argument yourself. :) British immigrants to many countries like Oz, USA, NZ - are vetted and screened to ensure they are self-supporting with regard to jobs, housing, health bills etc.despite having been vetted before they are granted permission to get into that country. The effect they have on the communities they go to, is to supply a "missing" skill : they would not get into that country else. I suppose there are always the Spanish contingent - Brits - who retire there, but surely they have paid their dues in NICs and taxes to the Mother Country. Why would they be sent back from those countries? :huh: Most of them requested them in the first place.

Not sure why you think the housing market would dance, unless it was a slow foxtrot. There would be nowhere for them to go. Many people I heard tell went away to get: decent accommodation; prompter health care; better weather etc.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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