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Realistbear

Bloomberg: Dissapearance Of F T Bs Threaten Miracle Economy

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Watching Bloomberg this morning and noted headline banner stating that the dissappearance of FTBs threatens Blair's economy. I think they mean't to say Gordon's Miracle Economy as he is the author and finisher of the boom and bust ride we are having based on HPI-MEW.

Sorry, no link but the headline is still up on Bloomberg TV.

More doom and gloom for the property market being spread. The word is getting out slowly, but surely.

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Watching Bloomberg this morning and noted headline banner stating that the dissappearance of FTBs threatens Blair's economy. I think they mean't to say Gordon's Miracle Economy as he is the author and finisher of the boom and bust ride we are having based on HPI-MEW.

Sorry, no link but the headline is still up on Bloomberg TV.

More doom and gloom for the property market being spread. The word is getting out slowly, but surely.

here is the link

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mp;refer=europe

The number of first-time homebuyers dropped to a 25-year low of 320,000 last year, according to estimates by Edinburgh-based HBOS Plc, Britain's biggest lender. As new purchasers get older and rarer, the U.K.'s economic growth may slow, says Tom Vosa, a former Bank of England economist who is now head of market economics at National Australia Bank in London.

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here is the link

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mp;refer=europe

The number of first-time homebuyers dropped to a 25-year low of 320,000 last year, according to estimates by Edinburgh-based HBOS Plc, Britain's biggest lender. As new purchasers get older and rarer, the U.K.'s economic growth may slow, says Tom Vosa, a former Bank of England economist who is now head of market economics at National Australia Bank in London.

Well done, thanks.

This quote sums it up:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mp;refer=europe

U.K. First-Time House Buyers Dwindle, Threatening Blair's Boom

The number of first-time homebuyers dropped to a 25-year low of 320,000 last year, according to estimates by Edinburgh-based HBOS Plc, Britain's biggest lender. As new purchasers get older and rarer, the U.K.'s economic growth may slow, says Tom Vosa, a former Bank of England economist who is now head of market economics at National Australia Bank in London
``
Rising house prices aren't necessarily a good thing,'' Vosa says. ``The risk is at some stage, the value of the housing stock falls precipitously because there are simply no buyers left
.''
.

The worst for 25 years! Great Crash 2 is going to be huge, just HUGE. :D

Edited by Realistbear

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Well done, thanks.

This quote sums it up:

The number of first-time homebuyers dropped to a 25-year low of 320,000 last year, according to estimates by Edinburgh-based HBOS Plc, Britain's biggest lender. As new purchasers get older and rarer, the U.K.'s economic growth may slow, says Tom Vosa, a former Bank of England economist who is now head of market economics at National Australia Bank in London
.

The worst for 25 years! Great Crash 2 is going to be huge, just HUGE. :D

The number of FTB's may well be on the decrease but what about all the BTL investors who will keep injecting money into the market?

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The number of FTB's may well be on the decrease but what about all the BTL investors who will keep injecting money into the market?

Yields are already at a 5 year low and a recent article says professional BTLers are gone--long gone. Its over--thank heavens.

http://uk.us.biz.yahoo.com/ft/060816/fto08...94284.html?.v=1

FT.com

UK's high house prices fail to deter buy-to-let landlords

Wednesday August 16, 2:05 pm ET

By Jim Pickard

Many buyers developed an aversion to shares after the crash of 2001, despite the stock market's subsequent bounceback. With house prices having risen so consistently for the past decade, past performance looks hugely attractive.

But some observers are wondering whether the newcomers are joining the party just as the music is about to stop. There are fears that many buy-to-let investors are buying on the back of expected capital growth that may not materialise. Valuations relative to household incomes are now at their highest level in history, sustained primarily by low interest rates.

Some commentators find it hard to see many reasons for price increases outside central London, a market buoyed by foreign investment and City bonuses. Others point out that the yield from residential property - rent as a proportion of the price of the building - is at a record low because prices have risen so high without any great rise in rents.

Mr Ahuja, after buying all over the UK for a decade, now avoids London and the south-east because "the maths just doesn't add up any more". Instead, his most recent purchases have been in remote parts of Scotland.

Edited by Realistbear

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Watching Bloomberg this morning and noted headline banner stating that the dissappearance of FTBs threatens Blair's economy. I think they mean't to say Gordon's Miracle Economy as he is the author and finisher of the boom and bust ride we are having based on HPI-MEW.

Sorry, no link but the headline is still up on Bloomberg TV.

More doom and gloom for the property market being spread. The word is getting out slowly, but surely.

Sentiment is definitely changing more quickly now. More Bearish everyday. :D

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A third of Brits want to leave the country. The majority looking to retire abroad, where's the money coming from in earnings to take that lot out?

As a 10-20 year plan for capital appreciation the proposal looks murky. :lol:

Edited by OnlyMe

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A third of Brits want to leave the country. The majority looking to retire abroad, where's the money coming from in earnings to take that lot out?

As a 10-20 year plan for capital appreciation the proposal looks murky. :lol:

can pensioners claim their state pension if they are living abroad?

They are likely to avail of hralthcare in their destination country, rather than here (definitely in an emergency situation). Perhaps the pensions crisis will sort itself out after all. And if they all sell up to fund their move abroad there will be a nice downward pressure on house prices (hopefully a rout when they all start to realise that if they don't get out quick they never will).

The boomers will come good and save the day.

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The number of FTB's may well be on the decrease but what about all the BTL investors who will keep injecting money into the market?

No matter what they say about the "long term", they're in it for continuous capital gain. If there is a catastrophic crash "they" might put measures in place to stop the next boom. When it becomes clear that things are going truly negative there's going to be a huge panic among those who have come in late thinking HPI is going on forever, as well as FTBs who got in thinking the same thing. The property TV progs will evaporate and then there will just be grim reality. That's how I see it.

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Without FTBs chains cannot move. IMO, this is why I am seeing so many "unexpectedly back on the market" ads in our local property papers. Also, SSTC signs that linger for months.

Its a food chain. Kill the bottom feeder and the big fish starve at the top.

As the Bloomberg article points out, when the FTBs finally go the economy goes with it as Gordon's "Miracle" is really a HPI-MEW boom that is losing its legs.

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Yields are already at a 5 year low and a recent article says professional BTLers are gone--long gone. Its over--thank heavens.

There's just this unfortunate matter of hundreds of thousands of non-professional BTL purchases. Which shows no sign of easing up.

Indeed this year is on course for being the biggest transfer of housing stock into investors hands in history (again).

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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