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Who Is Fueling This Market At The Moment?

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A housing market requires fresh blood at the bottom rung or it dies.

At current prices there's negative returns for BTlers at the moment, and FTBs would save 50% by renting.

So someone pray tell me, who are the fecking morons fueling this market.

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Banks - they are cacking themselves about the situation they have created and know of no other route other than to inflate their loans appropriately.

They are climbing the wall of risk, the higher climb the bigger the splat when they fall off.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Guest mattsta1964

Banks - they are cacking themselves about the situation they have created and no of no other route other than to inflate their loans appropriately.

They are climbing the wall of risk, the higher climb the bigger the splat when they fall off.

FTB's are no longer required to support the market. Property is now just a game of monopoly for investors. It is no different from buying shares, commodities, etc etc. The idea that owning a home is about having somewhere to live, to raise a family etc etc is gone forever. For the average punter who wants a house to live in, he or she must buy at the correct time in the economic cycle to prevent future bankruptcy. Welcome to the UK in the new millenium.

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my friend her her boyfriend are FTBs and are buying in London around the £400k mark and are paying £15k over the asking price due to a bidding war!

apparently house prices only go up! (thats according to his father)

she's my best mate and it really worries me, but they are determined to get on the ladder

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FTB's are no longer required to support the market. Property is now just a game of monopoly for investors. It is no different from buying shares, commodities, etc etc. The idea that owning a home is about having somewhere to live, to raise a family etc etc is gone forever. For the average punter who wants a house to live in, he or she must buy at the correct time in the economic cycle to prevent future bankruptcy. Welcome to the UK in the new millenium.

Yes 100% correct. It was no coincidence that the property boom has come at a time when the stock market is fairly stagnant and pensions have been slated and demonised.

Property is the new investment of choice. People have suddenly realised that GB is an island with limited housing stock. As demographics change and Eastern Europe joins the EU then GB becomes a busy little place with lots of people looking for homes. You now have single dwellers living in 2-3 bedroom properties and lots of unemployed people looking for homes now the council has decided to no longer build as many of there own. So suddenly the lower end of the market is being snapped up by BTL people looking to rent to Housing Benefit people. These once untouched shitheaps are now being snapped up for £100k because the government will guarantee your rentals. So Mr FTB has to look to at least paying £150k to buy a half decent flat. How will he afford it. Well Mum and Dad have just made £300k on their house and are moving to Spain so they give Sonny boy £50k towards his deposit and its happy days. At the higher end of the market people are usually on their 2nd or 3rd house so have the price increases in equity so in real terms their mortgages remain the same.

Its very simple.

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Guest mattsta1964

my friend her her boyfriend are FTBs and are buying in London around the £400k mark and are paying £15k over the asking price due to a bidding war!

apparently house prices only go up! (thats according to his father)

she's my best mate and it really worries me, but they are determined to get on the ladder

I sympathise with their predicament. Sounds like they earn good money to be buying their first home for over 400K! I hope their jobs are secure!!!!!!

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my friend her her boyfriend are FTBs and are buying in London around the £400k mark and are paying £15k over the asking price due to a bidding war!

apparently house prices only go up! (thats according to his father)

she's my best mate and it really worries me, but they are determined to get on the ladder

His father is completely right. House prices do only go up with occasional dips in between. If they are buying in an area which historically has a strong rental market then they can always rent the property out over any period where they are in negative equity. I wouldnt worry about your friends. Look around you and remember 1989-1997. Apparently this crash ruined people etc etc. Well I dont know anybody now that feels particularly cheated. Everybody seems to have come through it and those who held on to their houses are rubbing their hands with glee sat on huge amounts of equity, especially in London.

The only ones that may come a cropper in a massive crash are those that bought to invest in an area which is apparently up and coming but never arrives.

Go and buy your friend a nice congratulations card and whatever you do dont be the moody, grumpy doom merchant that everybody slates off behind their back. Seriously your friends will recognise these people a mile off and then come back to you in a years time when they have just sold their highly desirable flat for a £50k profit and make sure you know all about it.

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4 Factors in my Opinion:

1) Sheeple still believe house prices only go up

2) Huge foreign investment - staggering figures a the moment

3) Immigration

4) Government needing to engineer a soft landing.

I firmly believe however that the global economic stability of the last 10 years will not continue.

Here is a list of things that could go wrong in the UK alone:

Massive Currency Devaluation, Continued growth in Unemployment, Bird Flu Epidemic, Weather related Catastrophy, Terrorist Attack, Hung Parliament, Interest Rates Rise, Raw Materials shortage, WW3, Stock Market Crash, Racial Riots, Collapse of the Euro etc etc. They may all sound unlikely, but mosty have happened several times in the last century at least - Bulls are backing a lot of 98% chances all coming in.

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4 Factors in my Opinion:

1) Sheeple still believe house prices only go up

2) Huge foreign investment - staggering figures a the moment

3) Immigration

4) Government needing to engineer a soft landing.

I firmly believe however that the global economic stability of the last 10 years will not continue.

Here is a list of things that could go wrong in the UK alone:

Massive Currency Devaluation, Continued growth in Unemployment, Bird Flu Epidemic, Weather related Catastrophy, Terrorist Attack, Hung Parliament, Interest Rates Rise, Raw Materials shortage, WW3, Stock Market Crash, Racial Riots, Collapse of the Euro etc etc. They may all sound unlikely, but mosty have happened several times in the last century at least - Bulls are backing a lot of 98% chances all coming in.

Well I've heard it all now. I wondered when World War 3 would rear its head as a possible reason for a house price crash :rolleyes:

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Guest mattsta1964

His father is completely right. House prices do only go up with occasional dips in between. If they are buying in an area which historically has a strong rental market then they can always rent the property out over any period where they are in negative equity. I wouldnt worry about your friends. Look around you and remember 1989-1997. Apparently this crash ruined people etc etc. Well I dont know anybody now that feels particularly cheated. Everybody seems to have come through it and those who held on to their houses are rubbing their hands with glee sat on huge amounts of equity, especially in London.

The only ones that may come a cropper in a massive crash are those that bought to invest in an area which is apparently up and coming but never arrives.

Go and buy your friend a nice congratulations card and whatever you do dont be the moody, grumpy doom merchant that everybody slates off behind their back. Seriously your friends will recognise these people a mile off and then come back to you in a years time when they have just sold their highly desirable flat for a £50k profit and make sure you know all about it.

I'm afraid i totally disagree.

Like many people, your assumption that prices will continue to grow is based on historical experience, especially the last 50 years or so. This assumption is deeply flawed because the economic conditions of the next 60 years will be so completely different from what has gone before. Growth in house prices must be matched by a growth in sustainable economic activity. In case you hadn't noticed, the world is fekked. Our level of economic activity is not sustainable for another 60 years and economic growth is propelled by vast sums of borrowed money. This is not real wealth we are creating. It is delusional to think house priuces will rise in the same way they have done for our parents' generation. If house prices rise at the same rate as they have done over the last 60 years, in 2066, a 3 bed semi in Slough will cost about £500 million!!! .....Wakey wakey! I just ain't gonna happen

The crash we are heading for will be quite unlike the last one. What we are heading for will make the Great Depression of the 1930's seem like a walk in the park. The world economy is heading for bankruptcy.

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I'm afraid i totally disagree.

Like many people, your assumption that prices will continue to grow is based on historical experience, especially the last 50 years or so. This assumption is deeply flawed because the economic conditions of the next 60 years will be so completely different from what has gone before. Growth in house prices must be matched by a growth in sustainable economic activity. In case you hadn't noticed, the world is fekked. Our level of economic activity is not sustainable for another 60 years and economic growth is propelled by vast sums of borrowed money. This is not real wealth we are creating. It is delusional to think house priuces will rise in the same way they have done for our parents' generation. If house prices rise at the same rate as they have done over the last 60 years, in 2066, a 3 bed semi in Slough will cost about £500 million!!! .....Wakey wakey! I just ain't gonna happen

The crash we are heading for will be quite unlike the last one. What we are heading for will make the Great Depression of the 1930's seem like a walk in the park. The world economy is heading for bankruptcy.

Its funny how bears constantly argue that there will be a bust because historically a bust always follows a boom and then when bulls say the economic conditions are different the bears say "No everything comes in cycles etc etc".

Now you are saying we should ignore historic trends when it suits you and that the conditions are different.

I'm sure your a very intelligent man and you are fully aware that the economy from day one has never been based on real wealth. Money itself cannot be eaten or used for any other purpose than for moneys sake. It is created by goverments at any level they see fit. Stock markets consists not of real wealth but just figures. In 1950 when you could buy a 3 bedroom semi in Slough for £200 i'm sure they had people just like you saying..."yes yes and in 2006 they will be worth £300,000...wakey wakey it just aint going to happen"

One thing that will never change is the basic economic principle of supply and demand. Believe it or not people will always look to live in houses, unless you are predicting a sudden evolutionary advance in 10 years created by mass alien abduction. This is much more believable I must say than many of the things I'm reading on here and wouldnt be out of place.

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It's a slow burning, decentralised Ponzi scheme:

http://www.crimes-of-persuasion.com/Crimes...bania_ponzi.htm

Maybe there is another name for these things, but apart from the central agent that is in a Ponzi scheme the sentiment is exactly the same. People pour new money into the scheme which keeps it going and makes the old investors able to achieve above normal returns from the new money. You could say that the goverment is pumping the Ponzi scheme this time because on goverment owned channels in the next 5 hours there a 4 1/4 hours of programmes pumping up the value of property on BBC1, BBC2 and Channel 4.

Edited by Della

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Well at least the nutters haven't got here yet and started bleating about the crash already happening etc. As the first poster rightly observed - the market is alive and still rising.

I hate to admit it - I STRed late in 2003 and I WAS WRONG. It did look as though I was right throughout 2004 and the first half of 2005 as the market definitely stagnated (in my area) and the only houses that did sell sold well below their (madly inflated) asking prices.

I used to report on here on the sales of local BTL new build flats - how only 4 out of 8 in a certain block had sold and how the 4th one sold for 10% less than the 1st one etc etc. How in another one, after a year, half of them were still unsold etc. I have just checked again - they are all sold now and the ones that have sold in the last 6 months have sold for a bit more than the ones that sold in 2004 and 2005.

It is clear the market is being sustained by:

1) A small number of high earning FTBs that can afford to buy - and they are buying

2) Wealth transfer from parents to children - a 50k deposit provided by Mummy and Daddy

3) Buy to Let - probably more popular than ever as a way of providing that elusive pension

Buy to Let must be the biggest factor and it is the only one that something could be done about. Now if the government leveled the playing field by insisting that loans for BTL were a maximum of 50% - it would remove a lot of the new BTL purchasers and leave the property market for people who want to buy homes. Prices would adjust without the need for an accompanying recession (although, of course, it would have a big effect nonetheless - but not as bad as a house price crash caused by economic crisis).

You have the problem. While investors keep investing the property market goes from strength to strength. Many chains now have no FTBs involved. You are priced out and NOT NEEDED. You can kid yourself some magic correction is about to happen - but the level of delusion is mind-boggling. A market is the sum of the actions of the people in the market. Whilst 95% of the people in this country still think that property is a good long term investment and enough of them are willing to accept a low yield in the belief (doesn't matter if they're right or wrong) that the price of the property will go up in the long term then this market will continue.

I agree it cannot go on forever. House prices cannot double in the next 10 years or whatever nutty figure the papers want to come up with. For the simple reason that there has to be a limit to how much BTL landlords can afford to pay on top of the rent received to service the mortgage. However, unless something dramatic happens (like much higher interest rates) it can stagger on pretty much as it is. What if our economy slows again (which looks likely) and interest rates go down again for a few years. You still won't be able to afford to buy but BTL landlords will.

You face a gloomy outlook. You might get 10 years of a market that just bobs along going up in line with inflation. If you can't afford to buy now you won't be able to afford to buy at any time in that 10 years. The housing market seems to have a knack of going up more than wage inflation in almost all circumstances.

So think about it. In 10 years time another huge swathe of the UK housing stock will be in the hand of investors and you will be doomed to renting forever. I have said before and I find myself saying it again - your generation needs to get angry to get something done about this. The structure of the UK housing market is changing before your eyes driven by the favourable tax treatment of BTL - and you just sit around and do nothing. It baffles me.

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Guest mattsta1964

Its funny how bears constantly argue that there will be a bust because historically a bust always follows a boom and then when bulls say the economic conditions are different the bears say "No everything comes in cycles etc etc".

Now you are saying we should ignore historic trends when it suits you and that the conditions are different.

I'm sure your a very intelligent man and you are fully aware that the economy from day one has never been based on real wealth. Money itself cannot be eaten or used for any other purpose than for moneys sake. It is created by goverments at any level they see fit. Stock markets consists not of real wealth but just figures. In 1950 when you could buy a 3 bedroom semi in Slough for £200 i'm sure they had people just like you saying..."yes yes and in 2006 they will be worth £300,000...wakey wakey it just aint going to happen"

One thing that will never change is the basic economic principle of supply and demand. Believe it or not people will always look to live in houses, unless you are predicting a sudden evolutionary advance in 10 years created by mass alien abduction. This is much more believable I must say than many of the things I'm reading on here and wouldnt be out of place.

You need a history lesson. You also need to understand how money is created

Firstly, and most importantly, money is not created by governments. The control of the money supply is now almost exclusively in the hands of the banks and private financial institutions. After WW2, about 50% of the UK money supply was created debt free by the democratically elected government of the time. Today, only about 3% of all the money in circulation is 'debt' free money. Virtually all modern money has been 'lent' into existence by banks, to be repaid + interest. Very democratic isn't it!!!!!!!! The other important thing to understand is that currency today is intrinsically worthless. It is not backed by anything 'real'. The Gold Standard was abandoned, the dollar and Sterling are fiat currencies. The volume of money being pumped into the world economy is no longer relative to what is being held in reserves, either in cash or gold reserves. Gordon Brown sold 60% of the UK's gold reserves for $320oz! Nice one Gordo. Anyway, the point is, you can't base economic growth on 'confidence' forever! There has to be something 'tangible' and 'real' underpinning peoples' supposed wealth. I'm afraid there isn't!

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Its funny how bears constantly argue that there will be a bust because historically a bust always follows a boom and then when bulls say the economic conditions are different the bears say "No everything comes in cycles etc etc".

Now you are saying we should ignore historic trends when it suits you and that the conditions are different.

I'm sure your a very intelligent man and you are fully aware that the economy from day one has never been based on real wealth. Money itself cannot be eaten or used for any other purpose than for moneys sake. It is created by goverments at any level they see fit. Stock markets consists not of real wealth but just figures. In 1950 when you could buy a 3 bedroom semi in Slough for £200 i'm sure they had people just like you saying..."yes yes and in 2006 they will be worth £300,000...wakey wakey it just aint going to happen"

One thing that will never change is the basic economic principle of supply and demand. Believe it or not people will always look to live in houses, unless you are predicting a sudden evolutionary advance in 10 years created by mass alien abduction. This is much more believable I must say than many of the things I'm reading on here and wouldnt be out of place.

There is a distortion in the supply / demand model now because there are a huge number of people that want to own 5, 10 or even 50 houses.

Edited by Marina

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Its funny how bears constantly argue that there will be a bust because historically a bust always follows a boom and then when bulls say the economic conditions are different the bears say "No everything comes in cycles etc etc".

Now you are saying we should ignore historic trends when it suits you and that the conditions are different.

I'm sure your a very intelligent man and you are fully aware that the economy from day one has never been based on real wealth. Money itself cannot be eaten or used for any other purpose than for moneys sake. It is created by goverments at any level they see fit. Stock markets consists not of real wealth but just figures. In 1950 when you could buy a 3 bedroom semi in Slough for £200 i'm sure they had people just like you saying..."yes yes and in 2006 they will be worth £300,000...wakey wakey it just aint going to happen"

One thing that will never change is the basic economic principle of supply and demand. Believe it or not people will always look to live in houses, unless you are predicting a sudden evolutionary advance in 10 years created by mass alien abduction. This is much more believable I must say than many of the things I'm reading on here and wouldnt be out of place.

over the last 30 years housing stock has increased 30% whilst population has grown by 10%, we have less people living per property than ever before and birth rates are below the average 2 per woman that causing populations to grow. As the baby boomer generation starts to die in 2020->2030 your going to see a massive increase in supply of housing stock coupled with lower demand.

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Well at least the nutters haven't got here yet and started bleating about the crash already happening etc. As the first poster rightly observed - the market is alive and still rising.

I hate to admit it - I STRed late in 2003 and I WAS WRONG. It did look as though I was right throughout 2004 and the first half of 2005 as the market definitely stagnated (in my area) and the only houses that did sell sold well below their (madly inflated) asking prices.

I used to report on here on the sales of local BTL new build flats - how only 4 out of 8 in a certain block had sold and how the 4th one sold for 10% less than the 1st one etc etc. How in another one, after a year, half of them were still unsold etc. I have just checked again - they are all sold now and the ones that have sold in the last 6 months have sold for a bit more than the ones that sold in 2004 and 2005.

It is clear the market is being sustained by:

1) A small number of high earning FTBs that can afford to buy - and they are buying

2) Wealth transfer from parents to children - a 50k deposit provided by Mummy and Daddy

3) Buy to Let - probably more popular than ever as a way of providing that elusive pension

Buy to Let must be the biggest factor and it is the only one that something could be done about. Now if the government leveled the playing field by insisting that loans for BTL were a maximum of 50% - it would remove a lot of the new BTL purchasers and leave the property market for people who want to buy homes. Prices would adjust without the need for an accompanying recession (although, of course, it would have a big effect nonetheless - but not as bad as a house price crash caused by economic crisis).

You have the problem. While investors keep investing the property market goes from strength to strength. Many chains now have no FTBs involved. You are priced out and NOT NEEDED. You can kid yourself some magic correction is about to happen - but the level of delusion is mind-boggling. A market is the sum of the actions of the people in the market. Whilst 95% of the people in this country still think that property is a good long term investment and enough of them are willing to accept a low yield in the belief (doesn't matter if they're right or wrong) that the price of the property will go up in the long term then this market will continue.

I agree it cannot go on forever. House prices cannot double in the next 10 years or whatever nutty figure the papers want to come up with. For the simple reason that there has to be a limit to how much BTL landlords can afford to pay on top of the rent received to service the mortgage. However, unless something dramatic happens (like much higher interest rates) it can stagger on pretty much as it is. What if our economy slows again (which looks likely) and interest rates go down again for a few years. You still won't be able to afford to buy but BTL landlords will.

You face a gloomy outlook. You might get 10 years of a market that just bobs along going up in line with inflation. If you can't afford to buy now you won't be able to afford to buy at any time in that 10 years. The housing market seems to have a knack of going up more than wage inflation in almost all circumstances.

So think about it. In 10 years time another huge swathe of the UK housing stock will be in the hand of investors and you will be doomed to renting forever. I have said before and I find myself saying it again - your generation needs to get angry to get something done about this. The structure of the UK housing market is changing before your eyes driven by the favourable tax treatment of BTL - and you just sit around and do nothing. It baffles me.

From reading Marina's numerous posts, she's either a wind up merchant or is genuinely exasperated at the time the bubble is taking to deflate.

The fact that Marina has 'jumped ship' should gladden all bears' hearts. Isn't that a characteristic of bubbles, the last bear has to turn bull?

When the history of this HPC is written, the period November '05 to June '06 will be known as the great sucker's rally. It's really rather textbook actually. The people who bought then will lose out BIG time. Indeed, anyone who bought in London after about 2002 won't be feeling great.

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Marina's post is one of the few that I have read that I am behind 100%. Everything he says makes complete sense.

I was a bear in 2003 also and STR. What a mistake. Luckily over the same period I decided to live in Spain and bought there also and made a fair amount of money so it wasnt a complete disaster. I remember though having massive debates with people advising them to pull out and not buy and fortunately they ignored everything I told them.

It just makes me laugh the way I see people doing the same things I did then. You clamber over every sign of bad news or economic triggers and scream "the crash is coming the crash is coming". You continue to do so for a year or two and then you just go and buy a house and shut up.

A wise man once said "There aint nowt queerer than folk" and he was spot on. You can write reams and reams of economic reports and analysis but if people want to buy houses they will buy houses regardless. And unless you get drastic IR rises people are going to buy buy buy.

There is a distortion in the supply / demand model now because there are a huge number of people that want to own 5, 10 or even 50 houses.

I can only take my figures from actual studies. They project 209,000 more households in the UK next year. With new houses/flats taken into account we are left with a 47,000 shortfall every year.

Of course in some areas demand is lower, that cannot be disputed and in other areas demand is at bursting point. I suppose if you buy in the right area where lack of space means supply cannot be increased too much and demand will remain high you should be OK.

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I sympathise with their predicament. Sounds like they earn good money to be buying their first home for over 400K! I hope their jobs are secure!!!!!!

:lol:

NO job is secure - it's a risk like everything else

With real inflation above HPI and virtually static wages they may find themselves stretched over time esp if they split up

Living in the UK is getting progressivly more expensive - not just HPI....

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From reading Marina's numerous posts, she's either a wind up merchant or is genuinely exasperated at the time the bubble is taking to deflate.

The fact that Marina has 'jumped ship' should gladden all bears' hearts. Isn't that a characteristic of bubbles, the last bear has to turn bull?

When the history of this HPC is written, the period November '05 to June '06 will be known as the great sucker's rally. It's really rather textbook actually. The people who bought then will lose out BIG time. Indeed, anyone who bought in London after about 2002 won't be feeling great.

I am a he not a she. But that is not relevant.

I am not a wind-up merchant - well not how you mean. I am trying to wind you youngsters up into doing something about the situation you are in.

This 'when the last bear turns bull thing', for some reason, annoys me. It strikes me as a sort of childish mantra .... I'm never sure what it means but I guess it is supposed to be along the lines of the story about the Wall Street crash ... 'when the shoe shine boy starts tipping shares' it is time to get out of the stock market.

Well I am not the last bear turning bull. I am not someone who has been running behind the market refusing to join in ... years ago I was a bull, simply because buying and doing up properties seemed to be increasing my wealth. I became a bear when I thought the market was overheating - every man and his dog was suddenly a developer and investor in property. I thought 'this is nuts, property is a bubble, it must burst ... ' But what I hadn't taken into account was the seemingly endless supply of new investors, the throwing away of caution when it came to lending criteria and the fact that property has become the new pension vehicle of choice.

I am not a bull. I observe the property market is still going up. I do not expect it to go down at any time in the near future unless we get an economic crisis that forces up interest rates. But I don't want it to go up - so, in that sense, I am not a bull.

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FTB's are no longer required to support the market. Property is now just a game of monopoly for investors. It is no different from buying shares, commodities, etc etc. The idea that owning a home is about having somewhere to live, to raise a family etc etc is gone forever. For the average punter who wants a house to live in, he or she must buy at the correct time in the economic cycle to prevent future bankruptcy. Welcome to the UK in the new millenium.

It seems that way now but BTLs will not be looking to move up the ladder. So it looks like they are supporting the market now but when chains start collapsing because people looking to move up have nobody to sell to at the bottom of the chain it will become apparent that all they have done is made things worse. BTL only makes up for 8% of the total of mortgage lending. They are just chasing prices up, pricing FTBs out, making the market more unstable in the long term. Its an abnormality. BTL is a symptom of the bubble rather than a cause.

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I think a lot of these BTL people are currently happy with static prices with a rise in prices long term and then looking to sell to fund retirement

Problem with that is real inflation is catching up with the recent gains in the housing market - what will they be really worth in 20/30 years time?

I don't think IR will rise to a level to crash the housing market - just enough to dampen borrowing/spending and lower real inflation (before the public really becomes aware of it)

Edited by dnd

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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