Realist Bear - Out Of The Closet

[I'M WITH STUPID]

I have owned my own gaff since 1977 and sold my last place in 2003 and have rented eversince. I am debt-free and rent a £350k house for £750 p.m. and watch house prices tumble all arund me (West Midlands--even RICS said its bad in ther recent report). My STM funds are safely invested at a current rate of 5.04% and I am feeling somewhat happy as a clam.

So thats why you've averaged ten postings A DAY ever since trying to convince us all there's a HPC

[Realistbear]

So thats why you've averaged ten postings A DAY ever since trying to convince us all there's a HPC

You don't need me to convice you there's going to be a HPC just read some of the threads on this site. Unemployment up. Record Bankruptcies. IR up. HPI rate dropping. Rising energy bills. We are not all Bulls on here y'know.

[I'M WITH STUPID]

maybe you should change your name to VIbear?

[Goat]

We are not all Bulls on here y'know.

Although I have noticed that many of the newer members are much more bullish.

Is it all a consipracy (possibly linked to 9/11; Diana & JFK)? Are all new members actually VI's in disguise?

[Realistbear]

maybe you should change your name to VIbear?

Bears include a large number of FTBs and STRs who want to see a HPC. There are also a few OOs with a conscience that see HPI-MEW as a disease or blight on the country. Each have a VI in seeing a crash.

On the other hand there are the Bulls and BTLers who have a VI in avoiding the crash. The EAs and Lenders are also VIs sharing the same interests.

Those without a vested interest in anything to do with houses are probably not very interested in this site. Or they may be Trolls who derail a thread to an off topic or delight in personal attacks and really have no opinions on the market one way or the other. When you see one of these the correct procedure is to sound an "awooga" warning.

[Guest Alright Jack]

I think 5% is a negative rate of return today. House prices have increased substantially since 2003. Obviously, if you're correct then this will redress and you will come out on top. I make no secret that I do not think house prices are going to fall meaningfully and that the rest of the economy is being deliberately inflated to buggery instead. What is certain is that the money supply continues to grow ever faster and the 3 month M4 growth average is now at nearly 20% per annum. This is frightening.

You are quite steadfast in your HPC convictions - this is admirable by the way. Is there any event or piece of evidence that would cause you to rethink your strategy?

[Goat]

There are also a few OOs with a conscience

Or enough working brain cells to realise that even as an OO HPI is bad for almost everyone except BTL investors.

[I'M WITH STUPID]

Bears include a large number of FTBs and STRs who want to see a HPC.

Well that would account for your 6400+ posts since the start of last year - but scouring the web for any article that makes you feel better wont actually make it happen

[abaxas]

Well that would account for your 6400+ posts since the start of last year - but scouring the web for any article that makes you feel better wont actually make it happen

We have always had boom and bust. If it truly is different this time and we can have boom without bust I'd be equally happy.

Lets hope we are all proved wrong and Britain going into a perm state of boom forever!

[CaptainClamp]

We have always had boom and bust. If it truly is different this time and we can have boom without bust I'd be equally happy.

Lets hope we are all proved wrong and Britain going into a perm state of boom forever!

Boom forever. Yeah right. There are negative consequences to all booms too (commodities like accommodation and transport becoming more difficult to obtain, lack of price stability (inflation), etc).

Personally I would hope that after the upcoming shakeout we learn something and manage to transition to a more even and stable state of affairs, and meanwhile manage the transition away from a fossil fuel based economy without 50% of the population of the developed world dying in the process.

[Realistbear]

Well that would account for your 6400+ posts since the start of last year - but scouring the web for any article that makes you feel better wont actually make it happen

Blogging can be very influential and this website has been referred to in the mainstream press on a number of occasions. Its like they say over at Tesco: every little helps.

Let' see if you can post some useful articles that support your point of view. Unless you are just Trolling by chnace?

That's what blogs are for--the exchange of ideas on a particular subject with the option of backing them up with various articles.

[Goat]

We have always had boom and bust. If it truly is different this time and we can have boom without bust I'd be equally happy.

Lets hope we are all proved wrong and Britain going into a perm state of boom forever!

How wrong you are. Consider the following (imagined but reasonable) scenario:

Professional couple in their 50s, 1 son mid 20s.

Father: "Great, the house has gone up another 10%, now I'm a millionaire"

Son: "Great, what are you going to do with your wealth"

Father: "well, I can't really use it 'cos its all tied up in the house, but it's good anyway isn't it"

Son: "yeah, of course, but in cash terms your not any better off are you"

Father: "no, now that you put it that way i'm not am I, but at least I'll be able to pass it on to you when the time comes"

Son: " after gordon's had his 40% IHT"

Father: "of course"

Son: "by which time I should be, what, in my fifties at least so it's not actually going to be any use to me"

Father: "hmmm... see your point, tell you what, we'll put it in trust for the grandkids instead"

Son: "what grandkids?"

Father: "well your's obviously"

Son: "the thing is the missus can't afford to give up work because of our mortgage so there aren't going to be any grandkids"

Father: "so who will get the money in the end"

Son: "ultimately gordon brown will have the lot"

Father (realisation dawns): "this HPI is a bit sh1t isn't it"

[othello]

House prices have increased substantially since 2003.

Really?

[RichM]

How wrong you are. Consider the following (imagined but reasonable) scenario:

Professional couple in their 50s, 1 son mid 20s.

Father: "Great, the house has gone up another 10%, now I'm a millionaire"

Son: "Great, what are you going to do with your wealth"

Father: "well, I can't really use it 'cos its all tied up in the house, but it's good anyway isn't it"

Son: "yeah, of course, but in cash terms your not any better off are you"

Father: "no, now that you put it that way i'm not am I, but at least I'll be able to pass it on to you when the time comes"

Son: " after gordon's had his 40% IHT"

Father: "of course"

Son: "by which time I should be, what, in my fifties at least so it's not actually going to be any use to me"

Father: "hmmm... see your point, tell you what, we'll put it in trust for the grandkids instead"

Son: "what grandkids?"

Father: "well your's obviously"

Son: "the thing is the missus can't afford to give up work because of our mortgage so there aren't going to be any grandkids"

Father: "so who will get the money in the end"

Son: "ultimately gordon brown will have the lot"

Father (realisation dawns): "this HPI is a bit sh1t isn't it"

classic! great stuff, and so true

[Casual Observer]

classic! great stuff, and so true

Not really. He could always sell the house for a million, buy a smaller one for 400k and give his son 600k

[RichM]

Not really. He could always sell the house for a million, buy a smaller one for 400k and give his son 600k

600K would get that 50 year old son a two-bed somewhere, remember?

And the dad would have to live for at least 7 years or the son would not receive any of the capital tied up in his dad's glamorous Bournemouth 1-bed.

[adibrown]

You don't need me to convice you there's going to be a HPC just read some of the threads on this site. Unemployment up. Record Bankruptcies. IR up. HPI rate dropping. Rising energy bills. We are not all Bulls on here y'know.

Realistbear I recognise you, you were the person 3 years ago boasting to his friends and colleagues that you had just got out before the whole thing crashed around you. Then you watched with tears in your eyes as the market went from strength to strength. Now your still spouting that same old mantra because it doesn't make you feel as foolish even though since 2003 you have been losing on average £1000 a month even with your savings account interest.

Why dont you just go and do yourself a favour and buy yourself a house

[Goat]

Not really. He could always sell the house for a million, buy a smaller one for 400k and give his son 600k

Scenario continued:

Son: "you could always sell the house for a million, buy a smaller one for 400k and give me 600k"

Father: "your joking aren't you?"

Son: "a chap I know suggested it on a website I visit"

Father: "he's a complete **********"

Son: "I know, but he does have a point"

Father: "so the consquence of HPI is that I need to sell my family home and move into a pokey 2 bed new build flat"

Son: "this HPI really is sh1t isn't it"

[faloos]

Realistbear I recognise you, you were the person 3 years ago boasting to his friends and colleagues that you had just got out before the whole thing crashed around you. Then you watched with tears in your eyes as the market went from strength to strength. Now your still spouting that same old mantra because it doesn't make you feel as foolish even though since 2003 you have been losing on average £1000 a month even with your savings account interest.

Why dont you just go and do yourself a favour and buy yourself a house

I sold too in 2003 and I dont know where you are living but prices in my area in Sussex have not moved that much so I am doing ok with my interest accruedetc.

Remember this my friend "Cash is King "

[TT9]

Just a quick rare post.

Whilst not contributing actively, I have been a silent reader for many months. This sight for me has captured a lot of useful global economic activity and through some of the more active posters, RealistBear the obvious one, many others have had a chance to inform themselves of the kinds of things happening around us which we might want to include into our own personal decision making process. For me, this site is an extremely useful portal of economic soundbytes, and a lot of work from some of the posters saves me the overhead of looking up many other sources to get the information.

Please, a couple of posters been registered a couple of days, coming on here and dictating to the veterans - know your place guys, these are well respected members of the forums. Bull or Bear, I don't care, just like the education and opinions of healthy discussion.

*declares position*

~£500,000 valued Cobham cottage renting for £1250pcm. FTB, liquid savings £150k, active with CFD's, spreadbetting for fun investments. No plans to buy. (ever)

TT9.

[Ignorant Steve]

I live just around the corner from Realist Bear. If he sold in 2003 he's missed 1 - 2 years HP at 20%.

Having said that prices were definitely stagnant last year and some falls are now evident in some types. Biggest I've seen is a £150K drop in asking price and still unsold.

[Bucephalus]

Please, a couple of posters been registered a couple of days, coming on here and dictating to the veterans - know your place guys, these are well respected members of the forums. Bull or Bear, I don't care, just like the education and opinions of healthy discussion.

I disagree. Don't know your place. You are no better or no worse than anyone on this site and if you disagree with someone with 6000 posts go ahead: we like intelligent discussion and you are very welcome to your opinion.

Blogging can be very influential and this website has been referred to in the mainstream press on a number of occasions. Its like they say over at Tesco: every little helps.

Let' see if you can post some useful articles that support your point of view. Unless you are just Trolling by chnace?

That's what blogs are for--the exchange of ideas on a particular subject with the option of backing them up with various articles.

So you think this site is your blog RB? Last I checked it was a open forum.

[Guest muttley]

I live just around the corner from Realist Bear. If he sold in 2003 he's missed 1 - 2 years HP at 20%.

Having said that prices were definitely stagnant last year and some falls are now evident in some types. Biggest I've seen is a £150K drop in asking price and still unsold.

I sold in 2003 too, and would concur with this 20% increase around here (North West). What am I basing this on? The house we sold is back on the market at +20%

Not sold in 12 months. Not worth the asking price.

[iangilb]

I sold too in 2003 and I dont know where you are living but prices in my area in Sussex have not moved that much so I am doing ok with my interest accruedetc.

Remember this my friend "Cash is King "

Not so, since 2003 the Stock Market was king or Gold was king (or oil for that matter) but not cash. In fact cash LOST about 3% a year due to inflation but you probably just about recouped that in interest (after you paid tax on it).

I am sorry but I cannot believe selling your house in 2003 has proven to be a good investment decison. If prices really have fallen in a particular area, I suggest this is because of something wrong with the area and prehaps you should move out of there while you can. Trouble is you cannot because elsewhere prices certainally have gone up.

If you STR for reasons other than investment, you have my sympathy along with the other priced out people here. If you did it to get rich quick, you don't and you didn't.

[adibrown]

I sold too in 2003 and I dont know where you are living but prices in my area in Sussex have not moved that much so I am doing ok with my interest accruedetc.

Remember this my friend "Cash is King "

If cash is king does that mean you have all your money hidden under your bed

I live in Brighton, Sussex and I can assure you prices have increased quite substantially in the past three years. A friend of mine has just sold his house in Haywards Heath, Sussex. Bought 2003 for £195,000 sold 2006 for £310,000.

In response to the post saying people should know their place when discussing with veterans - do you mean people who have been shouting crash for 3 years? 6000 posts later they are still shouting crash. To those who shout HPC do you have any specific dates for this crash. Why dont you put your reputation on the line and give us a deadline. When we have passed that deadline we can then watch as you extend it by another 3 years

And when you say the Father sells his house and downsizes why doesnt he take his £400k and go somewhere nice where prices are lower. Different country or perhaps a different region of the UK especially as we are now assuming he has retired. He probably lives in an area where prices are higher because of access to a large urban area or good schools neither apply once he hits 65.