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C P I Figures For U S Due At 1:30 P.m. Our Time

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FOREX-Dollar steady as U.S. CPI eyed for Fed clues

Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:14 AM BST164

By Toni Vorobyova
LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - The dollar was hemmed into narrow ranges on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. consumer price data that could help clarify what the Federal Reserve's next move might be after leaving interest rates on hold this month.
Surprisingly weak core producer price figures pushed the dollar sharply lower on Tuesday as the data suggested the Fed may not need to boost rates further to combat inflation.
The consumer price index for July, due at 1230 GMT, may offer a clearer picture on the outlook and the wisdom of the Fed's decision to hold rates at 5.25 percent.
The core CPI is forecast to have climbed 0.3 percent from a month earlier, matching June's rise.
"After the big surprise yesterday in the core PPI numbers, I think it's fair to day that the market will not be surprised if the CPI should be soft as well," said Niels Christensen, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale.

IF its up sharply, stocks tank and IR go up next month. If its below stocks soar and IR stay where they are next month. My bet is on +0.5% and no change in IR in September due to the worsening housing market.

Edited by Realistbear

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It will be at 1:30pm our time. 1 hr away...

Wednesday 16 August 2006

06.00 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Japan)

06.00 June Leading/Coincident Indices (Japan)

09.30 Bank of England Minutes (UK)

09.30 July Unemployment (UK)

09.30 June Earnings (UK)

13.30 July Inflation (US)

13.30 July Building Permits (US)

14.15 July Industrial Production/Capacity Utilisation (US)

Thursday 17 August 2006

09.30 July Retail Sales (UK)

10.00 July Euro-zone CPI (EMU)

10.00 June Euro-Zone Industrial Production (EMU)

13.30 August 5/12 Jobless Claims (US)

15.00 July Leading Indicators (US)

Friday 18 August 2006

06.30 July Department Store Sales (Japan)

09.30 Public Sector Net Borrowing/Cash Requirement (UK)

09.30 July M4 Money Supply/Sterling Lending (UK)

09.30 CML, BBA & BSA Mortgage Lending Figures(UK)


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AUG. 16 7:18 A.M. ET Economists are predicting a
0.4 percent
rise in consumer prices in July when the numbers are released this morning by the Labor Department.
After Tuesday's producer-price data surprise, markets will be focusing on consumer price data due at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Right, link I read said 12:30 "GMT"

Less than an hour away--corrected thread to 1:30 pm.

Edited by Realistbear

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US Home sales fell 7% YoY-- a big number.




Consumer Prices Rise by 0.4 Percent

Wednesday August 16, 8:35 am ET

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

Consumer Prices Rise by 0.4 Percent in July, Double the June Pace

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer inflation accelerated in July as a big jump in gasoline and other energy prices offset the biggest decline in clothing costs in nearly two decades.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its closely watched Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4 percent last month, double the 0.2 percent increase in June. While energy costs had fallen in June, they rose by 2.9 percent last month, the biggest increase in three months.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, slowed in July, rising by just 0.2 percent after four straight months of 0.3 percent gains. This slowdown, which was helped by a 1.2 percent drop in clothing prices, was likely to encourage officials at the Federal Reserve, who are counting on a slowing economy to reduce inflation pressures.

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08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.2. Futures indications get a big boost following another tame read on inflation, now suggesting stocks may extend their winning streak to three days. Total CPI rose 0.4% in July (consensus 0.4%) while the closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) rose a less than expected 0.2% (consensus 0.3%), reflective of an easing in inflation at the consumer level which further strengthens the credibility of a Bernanke-led Fed which may again forgo a rate hike when it convenes in a few weeks. Separately, July Housing Starts fell 2.5% to 1.795 mln units (consensus 1.81 mln) while Building Permits fell 1.747 mln units (consensus 1.84 mln). Bonds, which were up slightly ahead of the data, have strengthened as the 10-yr note is now up 9 ticks to yield 4.89%.

With the housing market tanking and inflation benign in the US things may be turning around a little on the inflation front. No hike in September looks likely IMO.

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US slowing down:



Housing Construction Falls in July
Wednesday August 16, 8:42 am ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that construction of new homes fell in July for the fifth time in the past six months, providing further evidence that the once-booming housing market is slowing.

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Something a poster on another board pointed out:

Does anyone else think it's absurd that these matter-of-life-and-death monthly inflation numbers are only stated to one significant figure? As an engineer, this strikes me as ridicluous. So it was 0.2% this month, down from 0.3% last month. Which means it could have:

a/ Fallen from 0.34% down to 0.16% (a 53% nosedive)

b/ Fallen from 0.26% down to 0.24% (an 8% dip)


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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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