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Sledgehead

Justin Urquart Stewart

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Just saw the old shop-steward on the beeb commenting on today's released data:

a ) saying how amazed he is that the borrowing binge rolls on;

b ) says you should examine the way inflation is measured, and, looking at fuel bills etc, suggest real inflation is probably more like 5 -> 7%

c ) says don't cheer about the +4.3% growth in avg earnings as we just can't afford it with China and India being so much cheaper to hire.

d ) says the claimant count, now 3.0% means little given the unemployment rate of 5.5%, suggesting those on incapacity were distorting the picture.

Basically a bear supper!

Edited by Sledgehead

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The BoE seems to think that the public's perception of the level of inflation is an important factor because if people feel prices are rising then they will look for higher wage settlements. The BoE quoted the 'perception' figure as slightly higher than the official CPI rate but certainly not as high as 5-7%. When do you think we will see the 'perception' figure rising to those levels?

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Just saw the old shop-steward on the beeb commenting on today's released data:

a ) saying how amazed he is that the borrowing binge rolls on;

b ) says you should examine the way inflation is measured, and, looking at fuel bills etc, suggest real inflation is probably more like 5 -> 7%

c ) says don't cheer about the +4.3% growth in avg earnings as we just can't afford it with China and India being so much cheaper to hire.

d ) says the claimant count, now 3.0% means little given the unemployment rate of 5.5%, suggesting those on incapacity were distorting the picture.

Basically a bear supper!

There does appear to be higher inflation than there currently is. The article below, although written by an American about US inflation, suggests that their CPI is also flawed but real inflation will seen through it eventually. Maybe UK inflation will show the same in time? not sure how though :huh:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/aug112006.html

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He mentioned stagflation too, dont forget.

btw Its Justin Urquart Smith, I believe.

It was an excellent piece adn hasnt been repeated since.

In fact the latest one had some VI PR-man telling everyone that the BTL sector was doing fine.... :rolleyes:

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There does appear to be higher inflation than there currently is. The article below, although written by an American about US inflation, suggests that their CPI is also flawed but real inflation will seen through it eventually. Maybe UK inflation will show the same in time? not sure how though :huh:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/aug112006.html

Cheers Oxon,

Not much meat and nothing we hadn't already heard. Hard to disagree with the theory, but I find theories so difficult to trade profitably. Longerterm your man will probably have his way, but the "when" is as he says, the $64tn Q.

I still find it odd that one particular HPC prolific continues to rule out the inflationary scenario. As the guy writing for kitco says:

" The U.S. now owes so much to foreigners that not only is legitimate repayment impossible, but the very act of servicing the debt will soon become unbearable. Debt repudiation through inflation likely appears to be the most politically palatable “solution.”

...The $64 trillion question is just how long it will be before the markets call the Fed’s bluff. Once it shows its cards, we had all better batten down the hatches, in preparation for a monetary perfect storm.

...Don’t wait for the financial storm to blow in. Protect your wealth and preserve you purchasing power before it’s too late. Download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities."

Well he's a cheerful dollar-happy-chappy isn't he! Then again, what would we expect from a bullion dealer site (apart from "buy bullion" that is). The question for dollar bulls is how will the upside be engineered other than thru higher rates, and how much higher? if inflation really is rampant can the US afford the necessary measures?

The other thing is that the dollar trend is down, and yet our HPC prolific claims to be a trend follower.

Sadly I learnt long ago that the market is no respector of men and their theories, no matter how intelligent. Whatever happens the richest guys will most likely be lucky idiots :lol:

Meanwhile here is a year old Jim Puplava article on US CPI and the "Core rate" for those who haven't already read it.

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Just went to the site of that kitco author.

Must say, it had me laughing out loud - but not for any reasons you may at first imagine.

If you can identify this dollar bull's quote:

I watch world markets and base my research on trends, what Warren Buffett is doing, and individual prospectuses

you'll find what this dollar bear has to say extremely amusing:

Here's what you'll learn in this report

...

• Why Warren Buffett has invested Billions outside of the U.S.

Note also that the dollar trend is down and world market trends are up.

That leaves just "prospectuses" as the only remaining possiblly logical route in our resident dollar-bull's approach. I dare not ask him what he means by that.

I am beginning to think it is only a matter of time b4 our dollar bull claims he bases his religious beliefs on views expressed by Richard Dawkins!

Edited by Sledgehead

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Er, no it IS Stewart

ehh ok..

I actually checked his name here and here and looked at the photos.

If you cant trust the BBC....I dont know.

Anyways, it appears you are correct.

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Guest Alright Jack

The BoE seems to think that the public's perception of the level of inflation is an important factor because if people feel prices are rising then they will look for higher wage settlements. The BoE quoted the 'perception' figure as slightly higher than the official CPI rate but certainly not as high as 5-7%. When do you think we will see the 'perception' figure rising to those levels?

The thing you have to remember about the BoE is that they talk SH1TE.

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Is he the stereotypical stock broker type with the braces?

The one that annoys me the most is a Barclays w(b)anker called Henk Potts. He's typical of the degenerates known as Yuppies. Talks cr@p on Talk Sport on a morning about the markets and how he spent the weekend in Monaco or Skiiing. Made my blood boil one morning when he said beer drinkers were miserable old men.

I'm a miserable young man you cheeky dutch champagne swilling *******!

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ehh ok..

I actually checked his name here and here and looked at the photos.

If you cant trust the BBC....I dont know.

Anyways, it appears you are correct.

Ah, I've seen this man. A man in red braces who appears on Gumby Morning Television. The BBC's man is much more watchable (Declan?) but then again so is the BBC Breakfast TV show, although it does suffer from too little Emmerdale and Coronation Street news.

Hey I wouldn't trust the BBC. Don't you know they are all part of the HPI conspiracy?

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Is he the stereotypical stock broker type with the braces?

The one that annoys me the most is a Barclays w(b)anker called Henk Potts. He's typical of the degenerates known as Yuppies. Talks cr@p on Talk Sport on a morning about the markets and how he spent the weekend in Monaco or Skiiing. Made my blood boil one morning when he said beer drinkers were miserable old men.

I'm a miserable young man you cheeky dutch champagne swilling *******!

Henk Potts is a fkn sausage jockey.

My mother knows more about economics than he does.

"Talk Sport" - moron radio ffs. Just goes to show you his level...

Ah, I've seen this man. A man in red braces who appears on Gumby Morning Television. The BBC's man is much more watchable (Declan?) but then again so is the BBC Breakfast TV show, although it does suffer from too little Emmerdale and Coronation Street news.

Declan is a wet fart.

He's a presenter, not a journalist.

Edited by needle

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Is he the stereotypical stock broker type with the braces?

The one that annoys me the most is a Barclays w(b)anker called Henk Potts. He's typical of the degenerates known as Yuppies. Talks cr@p on Talk Sport on a morning about the markets and how he spent the weekend in Monaco or Skiiing. Made my blood boil one morning when he said beer drinkers were miserable old men.

I'm a miserable young man you cheeky dutch champagne swilling *******!

The real annoying mouthy git is Martin Lewis, often on the radio (5) and TV, shouting down the mic, telling us what fools we are for not switching banks, energy suppliers etc.

Hello, I know that I could get a small amount of interest from Prat and Proxley Building Society, but why would I want to leave the bank I've been with all my adult life for a few quid every 3 months? We're not all idiots who go overdrawn without prior arrangement each month and then whine about the charges.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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