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Gavin

Bbc Look East Last Night (10 O'c News)

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Did anyone catch the piece last night on the Look East Local news part of the national 10 o’clock news on the number of flats being built in East Anglia?

Amazing piece straight out of the HPC achieves.

A warning that the market for new flats had been saturated (their words not mine) cue pictures of hundreds of flats in Ipswich (I think they quoted 4000 flats being built or planned can’t be sure) with price tags starting (or average) 121k.

NAEA representative (the very same) is then interviewed; saying that the market had attracted in builders but now the numbers built and planned had reached or could exceed demand, they then repeated the ‘saturated’ word.

Voiceover (not verbatim) “Yet not everybody wants to buy or rent flats. Now there are worries about if prices and rents may fall”.

Voiceover then states, “so maybe good news for first time buyers and those that want to rent, but not so good for buy-to-let investors”.

A few more pictures of loads of flats newly built or under construction then cut back to the studio and then onto the usual mix of stories about how a cow fell over in Norwich, the new craze in Morris dancing etc.

Blimey, mainstream BBC! I was shocked by my own reaction which was on the lines of “where’s your proof, you can’t say that without numbers/comparisons, you are just a bunch of VI fools” until I realised they were singing from our hymn sheet.

Is their no central BBC control to snuff this out at source? At a guess 200,000 East Anglians went to bed last night thinking that the BTL market for flats is dead!

Is this sentiment on the turn?

You can’t isolate one part of the market, as those that couldn’t afford houses can afford flats and chokes demand for houses, those in flats that want to move up the ladder can’t, those that get burned in BTL could exit.

I think this is a big story. If its happening in East Anglia, I can be assured that its happened everywhere else first!

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I was walking around Gloucester a few months ago and noticed a large development of flats going up by the River. Very ugly and there did not appear to be many sold. No doubt hurredly put up in anticipation of all the demand the VIs were saying was out there. Blinded by the hype and it looks like a few builders are going to get burned. Closer to my home, a builder has just put up for rent signs on his development of attached link houses that were completed over 6 months ago. I would say its happening, slowly in the beginning, but gathering pace as we appraoch the winter months when pessimism starts to darken along with the long winter nights.

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The headline should read "BTL investors finance Britian's next generation of social housing", followed in 10 years time by "Slum clearence a result of noughties property bubble planning nightmare".

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Yes, I caught it.

It started with explaining how the east is the property hotspot of the UK according to country wide EAs.

Was it Cambridge they said would rise 10% in the next year? It was somewhere in the east anyway.

After that, they went on to explain that it is widely believed that demand for 2 bed flats has reached saturation point already. Pointing out however, that many are still in the process of being built.

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Nice find. Is the media beginning to move onto the new big story (HPC in effect)?

BTL investors finance Britian's next generation of social housing

BTL will be the biggest investment scandle of our time - and I imagine most of these developments will be hoovered up by housing associations in the end. I feel sorry for any OO occupiers who have stranded themselves in these places through ignornace and misinformation.

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"BTL investors finance Britian's next generation of social housing"

This will go down as one of Brown's cleverest tricks - fooling private investors to finance social projects - typical NuLabour - old-school stalinists in free-market clothing

BTL-ers will turn on Brown once they wake up and smell the coffee

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Did anyone catch the piece last night on the Look East Local news part of the national 10 o’clock news on the number of flats being built in East Anglia?

What really pisses me off is that now new builds are 50% flats (17% in 1997) how are people ever going to move out of these flats?

I think that because house prices are so high the FTB generation is happy to stretch themselves financially to get into 1-bed flats because they have been sold the concept of the housing ladder and they all believe that it's just their first step on the way to a 4-bed detached house like their parents had.

When it dawns on them over the next 5-10 years that with low inflation and having bought at the peak there is no property ladder for them they are going to be very pissed off at the idea of being stuck in their 1-bed flat. And at about the same time people will wake up to the fact that we haven't been building any houses so there aren't going to be any houses for us to move into anyway.

Then you will see the pressure being put on the government to do something about this and release more land for building. Unfortunately this is some 5-10 years away but believe me today's FTBs whilst they might not vote will have every reason to in 5-10 years time when they realise they are stuck in a 1-bed flat.

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Did anyone catch the piece last night on the Look East Local news part of the national 10 o’clock news on the number of flats being built in East Anglia?

rather annoyingly the overall tone of the report was that this was bad news, other than a one liner that FTBs may benefit. Seems the reporter is more concerned about BTL. About time the pendulum swung such that the end to HPI is reported as good news.

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hard to get planning permission to build estates on greenfield sites....easy to get it to build on wastelands that surround our city centres....

I travel widely within England and the centres of Leeds and Manchester seem to have more hotel-style flats than anywhere else.........and in Leeds they're letting whole blocks out to students because no-one will buy them.

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hard to get planning permission to build estates on greenfield sites....easy to get it to build on wastelands that surround our city centres....

I travel widely within England and the centres of Leeds and Manchester seem to have more hotel-style flats than anywhere else.........and in Leeds they're letting whole blocks out to students because no-one will buy them.

I'm currently in Sheffield and it's getting silly here too.

The block I live in now has been open for about a year and still isnt fully occupied, loads of for sale signs etc.

And even more are being build around the city centre. Who is going to live there?

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I'm currently in Sheffield and it's getting silly here too.

The block I live in now has been open for about a year and still isnt fully occupied, loads of for sale signs etc.

And even more are being build around the city centre. Who is going to live there?

Abaxas, I'm in Sheffield - which flats are you talking about?

Have you seen this post on Sheffield Forum? This bloke seems to think more students living in the town centre will rejuvinate the shops meaning more people, more flats etc. I can't see it - Students are in enough debt already. Sheffield is ready for a fall with the ridiculous amount of "executive apartments" (i.e. flats) they are building.

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Abaxas, I'm in Sheffield - which flats are you talking about?

Have you seen this post on Sheffield Forum? This bloke seems to think more students living in the town centre will rejuvinate the shops meaning more people, more flats etc. I can't see it - Students are in enough debt already. Sheffield is ready for a fall with the ridiculous amount of "executive apartments" (i.e. flats) they are building.

I'm not orignally from Shef so excuse my bad mapping skills.

Some are popping up behind Waitrose, end of West St, bottom of Charter Row, behind the uni. Those new student ones near the station etc

Infact the whole of the city centre is being taken over with them.

I live in the currently under populated morton works!

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yes, the urban ''professionals'' these places are aimed at in my experience always prefer to live in established trendy (oxymoron?)suburbs with all the amenities a mile or two from the city centres..

eg Chorlton/Didsbury, Manchester or Chapel Allerton/FarHeadingley/ Roundhay , Leeds...where prices although expensive are no more than the flats built on the wasteland ringing the city centres where there are no amenities............

The area to the south of leeds centre near the Royal Armouries is surely the Uk's biggest new build white elephant......almost like a town of hotel style flats ...Completely soulless and lacking any amenities at all......and tiny 2 bedders going for £190k......

Re-the term ''executive flats''............ All the executives i know live in big houses with gardens in the suburbs or in villages.

Edited by Michael

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I work for the University and look after some of the Accommodation Systems so I know how many student residences are being built. It's crazy. I'm trying to get a number from Accommodation Services for the actual predicted number of beds over the last few years and predicted. Will report back when I get the numbers but it's going to be scary. It started from virtually none ten years ago...

Sheffield currently seems to be destroying it's heritage to build boring looking flats so that you feel like you could be living anywhere...

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I have worked on over £150m of flats in Manchester/Liverpool in the last 18 months at either live or tender stage.

A lot of these seem to be bought off plan by Irish consortiums looking to invest elsewhere because of the Irish overheating.

I cannot for the life of me see the market for these flats for the btl investor. I personally have heard on good authority that a guy at a major contractor put £10k deposit (each) on 5 flats hoping to flip them before they were completed. He now has to come up with £550k or lose the £50k.

There is so much choice for renters that I see lots and lots and lots of burned investor fingers. It gives me no pleasure to say this because my living has revolved around building these things for the last few years. I said it couldn't continue two years ago but I was wrong. The gold rush just goes on.

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Re-the term ''executive flats''............ All the executives i know live in big houses with gardens in the suburbs or in villages.

Bingo - save for the odd 20 something bankers in London, the executives don't want their home to be a glass and chrome palace 500 foot up, they want a plave like that to bang their bit on the side, but they want a house with garden etc. - apart from the pink pound (obviously :) ) most executives are family men and women and want to get away from the City when they are not working - even in London that means SW1, SW3 and SW6/7 and NW3, it rarely means a penthouse in E14 (from the bankers and 'executives' I know) - of the professionals earning serious money (i.e. more than £100K) outside London, only one lives in the city centre (and that's a divorce, mid-life crisis man who is dressing like he's 23 and trying to chase any skirt going) - everybody else wants a decent sized house for their family to grow into.....

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Some excellent comments here

yes, the urban ''professionals'' these places are aimed at in my experience always prefer to live in established trendy (oxymoron?)suburbs with all the amenities a mile or two from the city centres..

eg Chorlton/Didsbury, Manchester or Chapel Allerton/FarHeadingley/ Roundhay , Leeds...where prices although expensive are no more than the flats built on the wasteland ringing the city centres where there are no amenities............

The area to the south of leeds centre near the Royal Armouries is surely the Uk's biggest new build white elephant......almost like a town of hotel style flats ...Completely soulless and lacking any amenities at all......and tiny 2 bedders going for £190k......

Re-the term ''executive flats''............ All the executives i know live in big houses with gardens in the suburbs or in villages.

Right back over the bowler's head and halfway into the stand Michael. The small demand for city centre pads was sated some 5 years ago. Every time I drive into Leeds (from the South nowadays :( ) to visit, I am staggered by how much more has gone up - when I thought it was absurd 2-3 yrs ago.

There is a complete absence of any amenities south of the city centre. These places might be worthwhile post peak-oil, but they'll be very cheap still (being shoddy and no-one having any dosh then). As later posters have observed, a few "pinks", students and 20something call-centre types like the lifestyle, that's about it.

When I lived in Leeds, I was only slightly further from the centre, and was paying £440/month for a gargantuan 2 bedroom flat in an old Victorian low rise with lots of green space and amenities. We never heard a peep from the terrorists down the bottom of the road.

Bingo - save for the odd 20 something bankers in London, the executives don't want their home to be a glass and chrome palace 500 foot up, they want a plave like that to bang their bit on the side, but they want a house with garden etc. - apart from the pink pound (obviously :) ) most executives are family men and women and want to get away from the City when they are not working - even in London that means SW1, SW3 and SW6/7 and NW3, it rarely means a penthouse in E14 (from the bankers and 'executives' I know) - of the professionals earning serious money (i.e. more than £100K) outside London, only one lives in the city centre (and that's a divorce, mid-life crisis man who is dressing like he's 23 and trying to chase any skirt going) - everybody else wants a decent sized house for their family to grow into.....

£100k is serious money indeed, but even for those of us on rather more modest incomes, the same thing applies. I work in E14, and I can't imagine anyone really wanting to live here - the only thing that would attract people is if it was cheap. And it most certainly isn't.

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When it dawns on them over the next 5-10 years that with low inflation and having bought at the peak there is no property ladder for them they are going to be very pissed off at the idea of being stuck in their 1-bed flat. And at about the same time people will wake up to the fact that we haven't been building any houses so there aren't going to be any houses for us to move into anyway.

Buying at the peak may not cause you to stay in your 1-bed flat - IF YOU CAN AVOID NEGATIVE EQUITY. Why? Well the 4-bed house may fall more in price than the 1 bed, all the way up the chain. I say *may* because it depends on a lot of factors, including demographics, house building trends, how 'overpriced' various house types are.

Low inflation is prehaps the real killer because that does stop the ladder. We have had this for some time and as a consequence, there are plenty of home owners for whom the next rung is not getting any closer.

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Buying at the peak may not cause you to stay in your 1-bed flat - IF YOU CAN AVOID NEGATIVE EQUITY. Why? Well the 4-bed house may fall more in price than the 1 bed, all the way up the chain. I say *may* because it depends on a lot of factors, including demographics, house building trends, how 'overpriced' various house types are.

Not sure about this - beginning to think that a reason why the housing market figures are so distorted at present is because people are stretching farther to buy houses because they don't want to live in flats. If anything I'd say the values of flats are going to be hit much harder than houses, because the flats are intrinsically undesirable. We could well be moving into a vicious two-tier market with the prices of flats slumping while houses retain their value and perhaps even go up in the near future. Anyone buying a flat now or in the near future could end up getting very badly burnt.

If the stats represent developers disguising the sale prices of new builds while houses ramp up because people borrow heavily to buy them, because they're afraid they'll be left out of a very limited supply and forced into shoddy new build - that could go some way to explaining the odd numbers we're seeing.

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Bingo - save for the odd 20 something bankers in London, the executives don't want their home to be a glass and chrome palace 500 foot up, they want a plave like that to bang their bit on the side, but they want a house with garden etc. - apart from the pink pound (obviously :) ) most executives are family men and women and want to get away from the City when they are not working - even in London that means SW1, SW3 and SW6/7 and NW3, it rarely means a penthouse in E14 (from the bankers and 'executives' I know) - of the professionals earning serious money (i.e. more than £100K) outside London, only one lives in the city centre (and that's a divorce, mid-life crisis man who is dressing like he's 23 and trying to chase any skirt going) - everybody else wants a decent sized house for their family to grow into.....

Absolutely ridicolous statement. I am an executive, I earn in excess of £100k and I am 32. I live with my girlfriend (we have been together for 10 years) and we have no kids. I know at least 15 other friends from University, all of them earn in excess of £50k. We all live in flats. I have the choice to live in a house if I want to but why would I want to? I'm not the least bit interested in Suburbia yet I'm afraid.

Flats offer a lot. First of all they are usually centrally located or close to public transport (Tubes, Stations etc). They offer security. They are easily maintained. They are usually more aesthetically pleasing both internally and externally. Believe it or not the cost per square foot of internal space is in many cases less than houses. I personally prefer urban living but then I lived in a 5 bedroom house in Sidmouth, Devon for 18 years as a child and so fully understand the pros and cons of rural living.

The industry I work in is full of people 25-35 who all earn in excess of £50k. I'd say out of the 140 people in our studio 20 of them have kids. I dont know the exact figures but everyone I know of lives in a flat and they aren't gay as far as I know and they aren't stupid.

May be people just want to have a life and live with other young people in busy town/city centres with good lively pubs, nightlife, cafes and restaurants and everything within walking distance (including the office). We dont all clean the car or mow the lawn on a Sunday and I'm certainly not into growing daffodils or vegetables.

More interestingly I watched a program the other day about couples deciding to not have children and apparently the percentage has increased dramatically year on year since 1998. It is still a small percentage but ever increasing. Also single dwellers apparently make up just over 30% of all households. I think thats important to point out to those that believe 90% of people have 2.4 children. In my experience its the ones with kids that usually have the smallest disposable income because all of their money tends to go on their kids.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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