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Fed Reserve - World House Price Graphs

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I found this doc published by the Fed Reserve. I don't know if any of you chartists have seen it before but it's full of nice little house price trend graphs by country (see house price graphs shown by Country on pages 43 to 45).

Some points of interest...

1. Ireland looks one of the worst to me. I'd be scared if I just bought in Ireland! :o

2. Japanese house prices are still declining 16 years later! Who says house prices don't go down over the long term?

3. Germany has had no housing boom.

4. France was pretty flat until recently - I reckon the Brits have been helping to drive French prices.

Another interesting graph is on page 64 (showing % UK houses taken into possession by year). Although it is extremely low now by historical standards notice how quickly it jumped up between 1989 and 1991 - no reason it wont jump quickly again given the right conditions.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf

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I found this doc published by the Fed Reserve. I don't know if any of you chartists have seen it before but it's full of nice little house price trend graphs by country (see house price graphs shown by Country on pages 43 to 45).

Some points of interest...

1. Ireland looks one of the worst to me. I'd be scared if I just bought in Ireland! :o

2. Japanese house prices are still declining 16 years later! Who says house prices don't go down over the long term?

3. Germany has had no housing boom.

4. France was pretty flat until recently - I reckon the Brits have been helping to drive French prices.

Another interesting graph is on page 64 (showing % UK houses taken into possession by year). Although it is extremely low now by historical standards notice how quickly it jumped up between 1989 and 1991 - no reason it wont jump quickly again given the right conditions.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf

Skip to page 71, can someone explain what Simulated House Price Shocks (Deviations from Baseline) means. Doesn't look too hot fro the UK??

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Japanese house prices are still declining 16 years later! Who says house prices don't go down over the long term?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf

hmm thats strange.. Japans an island with finite amount of land for building new houses... and they have had low (zero) interest rates for a long time now.

but I thought those were two of the main reasons why house prices in the UK will never fall?!?!?

shock horror .. maybe theres a chance that, no I can't believe it... house prices CAN fall!!! who would have thought it?!??!

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I found this doc published by the Fed Reserve. I don't know if any of you chartists have seen it before but it's full of nice little house price trend graphs by country (see house price graphs shown by Country on pages 43 to 45).

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf

Jeez,

USA doen't look too bad according to this data!

I've always thought that the USA needs to crash before the UK will.

Oh dear.

:(

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Guest X-QUORK

The charts for Germany and Japan blow the myth that investors will flood in to buy property as soon as house prices start to deflate.

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Good-oh! I do like a nice heavyweight piece of research to get my teeth into...

"we find that real house prices are pro-cyclical and tend to reach a maximum near business cycle peaks, often after a prolonged period of buoyant growth in activity has raised output above its potential level and inflation pressures have begun to emerge. Subsequently, real house prices fall for about five years, on average, and their previous run-up is largely reversed" :D

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Jeez,

USA doen't look too bad according to this data!

I've always thought that the USA needs to crash before the UK will.

Oh dear.

:(

And despite not looking too bad, most commentators agree that it is crashing already.

Is what's going to happen in the ones that look bad (like the UK) going to be proportionally worse?

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I don't know if any of you chartists have seen it before but it's full of nice little house price trend graphs by country http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf

Look at the USA graph showing the ration of Nominal house prices to disposable income (page 47).

Surely this data can't be right, can it?

We hear all the time how much trouble is bubbling away in the USA.

But according to this chart it doesnt look like too much trouble is in the wind for the yanks.

Comments anyone?

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Look at the USA graph showing the ration of Nominal house prices to disposable income (page 47).

Surely this data can't be right, can it?

We hear all the time how much trouble is bubbling away in the USA.

But according to this chart it doesnt look like too much trouble is in the wind for the yanks.

Comments anyone?

If the disposable income figures includes the huge amount of MEW over there, then they are in trouble.

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Look at the USA graph showing the ration of Nominal house prices to disposable income (page 47).

Surely this data can't be right, can it?

We hear all the time how much trouble is bubbling away in the USA.

But according to this chart it doesnt look like too much trouble is in the wind for the yanks.

Comments anyone?

The argument is that the USA is too big to be considered one market.

Different parts of the US experience business cycles and housing cycles at completely different times.

So over the past few years, house prices on the coasts have been booming, but the interior has been fairly stagnant, so overall the rise has been muted.

Look at Florida or California for examples of crazy price rises (and crashes already underway), but several other areas have also seen what are probably unsustainable rises.

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The argument is that the USA is too big to be considered one market.

Different parts of the US experience business cycles and housing cycles at completely different times.

So over the past few years, house prices on the coasts have been booming, but the interior has been fairly stagnant, so overall the rise has been muted.

Look at Florida or California for examples of crazy price rises (and crashes already underway), but several other areas have also seen what are probably unsustainable rises.

I take your point on regional variations, but wont the FED will look at the big picture to base any interest rate increase on?

IMO that these charts dont look good for an interest rate rise to happen which I think will be the trigger for a crash in the USA that will impact on UK.

Edited by expatowner

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hot off the press, 15:10 gmt.

Home sales slow in spring

WASHINGTON (AFX) - The slowdown in the once-sizzling housing market is

spreading, with 29 states reporting spring sales declines, led by big drops in

former boom areas of Arizona, Florida and California.

Nationally, sales were down 7 percent in the April-June quarter this year

compared with the same period in 2005, the National Association of Realtors said

Tuesday in its latest state-by-state look at housing conditions around the

country.

The Realtors survey showed that the biggest declines occurred in states that

had been enjoying red-hot sales during the five-year housing boom.

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Where on p 64? I can't see it at all.

I think it depends on which acrobat view you use. When I check on my home computer it shows as page 67 of 71 although on the actual document the page number is 64. It's the bar graph "Chart 5.1 UK Properties taken into Possession".

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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