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Realistbear

O N S To Release Inflation Data Tuesday 15th August

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http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

Current Inflation (CPI)
2.5%
Next due:
15 Aug '06
Inflation Target 2.0%

We are already 25% above Gordon's target of 2.0% and Merv must write a letter of warning if it goes to 3%. With skyrocketing gas, electricity, council tax, tuition fees, petrol, bread can we expect the rate to fall? I have a strange feeling that Gordon will pull 2.4% out of the hat.

Edited by Realistbear

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i thought we were now calling it - ipod price inflation.. IPI ;)

..watch out for some food price inflation starting to creep in.

some text from brian durrant worth noting..

"Until now, one key factor in keeping the lid on headline

inflation has been the stability of food prices.

Spending on food and drink, excluding catering and

alcohol, accounts for 11% of a typical household's

budget. This cost has risen by only 7% since 1997. But

now there are ominous signs that food inflation is about

to rear its ugly head.

From 1998 to 2005 the prices of processed food and non-

alcoholic beverages rose by just 6.1%, constituting an

annual increase of 0.085% a year. But in the year to

June 2006 these prices rose by 2.5%. The same goes for

unprocessed food, which increased by just 2.9% in the

four years to 2005, but in the three months to June this

year these prices have risen by 3.5%.

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Guest muttley

Do the BoE already know the figure and did they know before their last meeting.

If so it may be up.

I understand they do.

Therefore >2.5%

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http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

Current Inflation (CPI)
2.5%
Next due:
15 Aug '06
Inflation Target 2.0%

We are already 25% above Gordon's target of 2.0% and Merv must write a letter of warning if it goes to 3%. With skyrocketing gas, electricity, council tax, tuition fees, petrol, bread can we expect the rate to fall? I have a strange feeling that Gordon will pull 2.4% out of the hat.

There is no way that inflation is that low!! The current rate of inflation has got to be nearer 10%.

Gordon is feeding us all porky woo's!!

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Spending on food and drink, excluding catering and

alcohol, accounts for 11% of a typical household's

budget. This cost has risen by only 7% since 1997.

Believe that and you'll believe the moon is made of cheese and that Gordon is prudent.

The amazing thing is that the BOE have gone along with it - they must be some of the most stupid people to inhabit Threadneedle street in history.

Edited by OnlyMe

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There is no way that inflation is that low!! The current rate of inflation has got to be nearer 10%.

Gordon is feeding us all porky woo's!!

Inflation has started to move and has momentum that will be difficult to stop over the short term. With a .3% jump last month I cannot see a sudden drop as this would have to be false or fiddled. A runaway train come to mind a bit like decline in house prices and that train has just started to move but very difficult to stop.

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http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

Current Inflation (CPI)
2.5%
Next due:
15 Aug '06
Inflation Target 2.0%

We are already 25% above Gordon's target of 2.0% and Merv must write a letter of warning if it goes to 3%. With skyrocketing gas, electricity, council tax, tuition fees, petrol, bread can we expect the rate to fall? I have a strange feeling that Gordon will pull 2.4% out of the hat.

SKY are also caling it at 2.4%. A big fiddle is going on for sure. The markets are very fragile and an admission that the BoE were right in stating that inflation was a real threat might cause Gordon's Miraculous housing market to go into freefall before the fundamentals pull it down later this year.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,304...4,00.html?f=rss

The problem is, who is going to believe inflation has fallen?

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SKY are also caling it at 2.4%. A big fiddle is going on for sure. The markets are very fragile and an admission that the BoE were right in stating that inflation was a real threat might cause Gordon's Miraculous housing market to go into freefall before the fundamentals pull it down later this year.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,304...4,00.html?f=rss

The problem is, who is going to believe inflation has fallen?

If they do try and fiddle this then this will drive every media / economist to look at the breakdown of inflation and open the can of worms. there is a fine line between fiddling and coming clean. I dont know what the line is as I am only an honest guy and not a politician.

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BBC says 2.4%

ONS: CPI falls to 2.4%. RPI stays at 3.3%

More 'Magic Numbers' from the "independent" ONS

There were also large downward effects from:

• Miscellaneous goods and services, largely due to financial services, where increases seen a year ago were not repeated this July;

• Transport, where there were downward effects from air fares, petrol prices, which rose by less than last year, and other transport services, due to road tolls, where increases last July were not repeated this; and

• Clothing and footwear, where special offers on a wide range of clothing in July were greater than last year.

Edited by jp1

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I buy my clothes at Primark and Lilywhites.

I get my food from Asda.

I don't run a car.

I don't pay council tax.

I don't pay utility bills.

I eat out at McDonalds.

I'm a regular at Argos.

Yeah, my inflation rate is about 2.4% ;)

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I just quickly scanned the ONS initial report. I get two strong feeling from it;

a. All the things I buy are up, so my inflation is getting worse, not better,

b. All the 'positives' appear to be short term effects.

a. is just plain annoying as it underlines the feeling that the CPI is fiddled and b. is hopeful in that it suggests that inflation will bounce back next month....

More waiting. At least it is still the wrong side of the target.

Edited by FTBagain

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2.4% not as bad/good as many feared, but one month's figures do not mean much by themselves. Traditional time of year for end of summer sales etc.

Next month University fees are added into the mix, which will bump up the CPI figures.

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