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gus

An Ugly Autumn

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Received a note of warning today from an investment adviser in S'pore. Hard to believe but I do have trust in him.

Apparently,Jeff Hirsch of Stock Traders Almanac says that the markets in the US now have a classic "domed Top" pointing to an ugly Autumn with real signs of a slow -motion break down being exhibited.

Nasdaq tech stocks have suffered 2 sets of falls of 8 consec. days this summer , an event not even seen during the dotcom bust.

A burgeoning bear market is now underway. Batten down them hatches!!!

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Received a note of warning today from an investment adviser in S'pore. Hard to believe but I do have trust in him.

Apparently,Jeff Hirsch of Stock Traders Almanac says that the markets in the US now have a classic "domed Top" pointing to an ugly Autumn with real signs of a slow -motion break down being exhibited.

Nasdaq tech stocks have suffered 2 sets of falls of 8 consec. days this summer , an event not even seen during the dotcom bust.

A burgeoning bear market is now underway. Batten down them hatches!!!

Yield curve is nicley inverted also. The 2 year bond is considerably higher than the 5 and slightly higher than the 10 year. Past history says a recession follows when inverted yield curves manifest their hideous presence. :o

Read a week or so ago that US fund mangers are holding a LOT of cash and do not like the next 2 Qs for stocks. As Fund managers tend to drive the market it may be a good thing to follow what they do. The fact that fiund managers make money when you buy funds suggests that their advice is not entirely VI.

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Yield curve is nicley inverted also. The 2 year bond is considerably higher than the 5 and slightly higher than the 10 year. Past history says a recession follows when inverted yield curves manifest their hideous presence. :o

Read a week or so ago that US fund mangers are holding a LOT of cash and do not like the next 2 Qs for stocks. As Fund managers tend to drive the market it may be a good thing to follow what they do. The fact that fiund managers make money when you buy funds suggests that their advice is not entirely VI.

Out of all the pointers to recession, an inverted yield curve appears to be uncannily accurate. However even respected fund managers like Ken Fisher are saying "it's different this time". Well, I don't think so, neither does George Soros and the US has a one way ticket to a recession starting Q1 next year. You can quote me on that!

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Out of all the pointers to recession, an inverted yield curve appears to be uncannily accurate. However even respected fund managers like Ken Fisher are saying "it's different this time". Well, I don't think so, neither does George Soros and the US has a one way ticket to a recession starting Q1 next year. You can quote me on that!

Well quoted - will you quote house prices going south from now on as well and keep us all happy? :D

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Well quoted - will you quote house prices going south from now on as well and keep us all happy? :D

I think I called a HPC a little too early was wrong-footed by the liquidity which a .25% cut in IRs injected into the market. Fred Harrison has an 18 year cycle theory which is looking pretty good - next year should be similar to 1989. Quote him!

My US recession prediction, I'm gonna stick by.

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Received a note of warning today from an investment adviser in S'pore. Hard to believe but I do have trust in him.

Apparently,Jeff Hirsch of Stock Traders Almanac says that the markets in the US now have a classic "domed Top" pointing to an ugly Autumn with real signs of a slow -motion break down being exhibited.

Nasdaq tech stocks have suffered 2 sets of falls of 8 consec. days this summer , an event not even seen during the dotcom bust.

A burgeoning bear market is now underway. Batten down them hatches!!!

I see your "investment adviser" reads the telegraph. You should tell him to get off his @rse and do some proper research, instead of spouting vicarious wisdom from those who should know better:

Also from : Bearish Wall Street analysts predict a fall of up to 20pc

"Jeffrey A Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, said that over the last 30 years the S&P 500 had on average peaked two months before the end of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle - a moment probably reached last week when rates were held at 5.25pc after 17 consecutive rises. He said the markets had a classic "domed top" that pointed towards an ugly autumn. "

Bulkowski talks about rounding or domed tops. He is recognised as the new Edwards & Magee. He covers them here.

This is what he says in The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns:

When is a top not a top? When it is a rounding top or dome and prices break out and upwards. That is the real surprise with this formation as most of the rounding tops have upside breakouts.

Number of formations in 500 stocks from 1991 to 1996__________________ 165

Upside breakouts ________________________________________________ 101 or 61%

Downside breakouts ______________________________________________ 64 or 39%

The majority of breakouts are upward, contrary to the popular belief that domes represent tops; prices should fall after a rounding top occurs. That is not what I found with over 100 formations supporting the conclusion.

So here are the questions you should be asking yourself:

1 ) the article refers to technical analysts predicting a fall and yet they refer to fundamentals (rate rises);

2 ) the article suggests "Much of the technical fraternity view the summer bounce - now looking exhausted - as a "suckers' kickback rally". Contrarians might view this as a consensus and vote against it.

3 ) the article says : "The chartists are issuing ominous warnings about the Dow Jones industrials and the broader S&P 500 index, despite their relative resilience through the May-June global rout and through the monetary tightening of the US Federal Reserve." Some analysts might suggest that an inability to fall properly on bad news is hardly sign of an imminent crash;

4 ) Hirsch, a leading proponent of the 20% fall view bases it amongst other things on a "domed top" which he suggests is bearish, yet Bulkowski has shown it to be bullish. Why does Hirsch not know this?

My advice: do your own research, come to your own conclusions and pay scant attention to bought and paid for analysts.

roundingtop.jpg

Between 91 & 96, 61% of Domes broke out and upwards

And in case you were wondering whether Bulkowski and his book have any credibility:

"This book was named one of the year's top investment books in 2003 by Stock Trader's Almanac 2003 (page 98). "

And who is Hirsch (the guy mistakenly claiming domed tops are bearish)? you guessed it : "Jeffrey A Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac"

What a shame he didn't read the book his publication gave the 2003 award to. What a t!t! :lol::lol:

Posted today here.

Edited by Sledgehead

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...14/cnwall14.xml

Ralph Acampora, managing director of Knight Capital Group and
one of America's most revered technical gurus
, said he expected a nasty slide of up to 25pc in the main markets over the second half.

Ralph has not called too many misses. I am not sure these people are VIs when they are advising people to stay out of the way. A broker, on the other hand, is more likely to suggest you buy whatever he is selling to maximise his commissions. At this prsent time there are a little too many stock analysts saying its time to be extra careful. I am not into technicals as much as the fundamentals but when the two start agreeing...... :o

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I don't make long term predictions. I just trade what I see.

However, the past says that markets rarely crash with everyone bearish. In fact that is how they rally. Consensus view is usually accompanied by the exact opposite action. Normally at this point of the year one would be looking to be bearish. Trouble is everybody else already is and a load of bad news has already happened. I get the impression that terror is passe, and am now beginning to wonder whether oil (and hence the SM) hasn't priced in a summer nasty.

I take on board views about the inverted yield curve and have no argument with these other than to say that the UK yield curve has been inverted for many, many, many months. Thisis a consequence of a lack of long dated gilts, currently being bought up like there is no tomorrow by institutions to comply with pensions liability regulations. I would not trust this effect here. Having said that I have no idea to what extent thi shas occured in the US.

The corollary to this is that a rising stock market could well trigger a rise in long dated issues yields, rectifying the inversion, as pension deficits dwindle. Such a fall in long dated issues would of course be bad for stocks as it would make them seem comparatively expensive (stocks wrt bonds are currently cheap). So stocks may have an in built break. The horizon for all this? get the fu@k outta here! How should I or anyone else know!

If I have a view it is this : it never costs too much to be contrary. All you have to do is work out what being contrary means. Look at the idiots borrowing like there is no tomorrow and a contrarian would be bearish. Listen to the accepted wisdom about stocks and a contrarian would probably be bullish. Look at housing and ... oh c'mon: I don't have to spell that one out surely! :lol:

Edited by Sledgehead

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Received a note of warning today from an investment adviser in S'pore. Hard to believe but I do have trust in him.

Apparently,Jeff Hirsch of Stock Traders Almanac says that the markets in the US now have a classic "domed Top" pointing to an ugly Autumn with real signs of a slow -motion break down being exhibited.

Nasdaq tech stocks have suffered 2 sets of falls of 8 consec. days this summer , an event not even seen during the dotcom bust.

A burgeoning bear market is now underway. Batten down them hatches!!!

Ha Ha Ha Ha

1.Oil Prices Down

2.Security alert degraded

3.FTSE 100 UP 1%

4.Dow Jones UP 1%

Any business analyst will be laughing at you.

You must be the biggest idiot on this web site (by the way you all are).

P.S. I just got my bonus 25 grand (Crisis ? What crisis ?)

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You must be the biggest idiot on this web site (by the way you all are).

As much as I share your view about the original material posted, I should point out that the term "biggest" is a superlative. That means, within the context of its use, it can refer to only one subject. Hence we cannot all be "the biggest idiot on this web site". I wouldn't expect a genius such as yourself to understand this.

Edited by Sledgehead

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Guest muttley

Ha Ha Ha Ha

1.Oil Prices Down

2.Security alert degraded

3.FTSE 100 UP 1%

4.Dow Jones UP 1%

Any business analyst will be laughing at you.

You must be the biggest idiot on this web site (by the way you all are).

P.S. I just got my bonus 25 grand (Crisis ? What crisis ?)

What sort of business analyst draws conclusions from one days worth of figures?

I wouldn't let you analyse my business.

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What sort of business analyst draws conclusions from one days worth of figures?

I wouldn't let you analyse my business.

Ohhhh excuse me !!!

1. The house prices have been going UP for the last 5 years

2. FTSE has been going UP for the last 3 years

3. Economy going steady for the last 4 years

Hardly 1 day analysis.

P.S. But then again you will say what goes up must go down.

DO YOU EVEN REALISE HOW SAD YOU ARE ?

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Guest muttley

DO YOU EVEN REALISE HOW SAD YOU ARE ?

Again, piss poor analysis based on limited information.

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Ha Ha Ha Ha

1.Oil Prices Down

2.Security alert degraded

3.FTSE 100 UP 1%

4.Dow Jones UP 1%

Any business analyst will be laughing at you.

You must be the biggest idiot on this web site (by the way you all are).

P.S. I just got my bonus 25 grand (Crisis ? What crisis ?)

25 grand bonus? Suppose you're spending the night in St. Tropez with Elle Macpherson, knocking back the Krug and flying back to London on your private jet? :lol:

Or more likely an estate agent driving a car on hp, wearing a shiny suit and plastic shoes with nothing to do because the London market is stuffed - all before he goes back to a grotty shared house in Wandsworth. Or am I just a an old cynic?

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? :lol:

Or more likely an estate agent driving a car on hp, wearing a shiny suit and plastic shoes with nothing to do because the London market is stuffed - all before he goes back to a grotty shared house in Wandsworth. Or am I just a an old cynic?

I agree, one of the best descriptions of an estate agent I have read. Completely matches my opinion of them.

You can call me anything just don't call me an 'estate agent' - all abuse should have limits.

Does anyone know how much the average estate agent earns?

I think their basic in London is around 10k.

How much do they take from sale, bonus etc.

How much is their total?

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baro,

5 years ago today the ftse was at 5824.9

...today it closed at 5870.9

5 years ago today the dow was at 11089

..currently at 11105

anymore typing is clearly wasted on you!

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baro,

5 years ago today the ftse was at 5824.9

...today it closed at 5870.9

5 years ago today the dow was at 11089

..currently at 11105

anymore typing is clearly wasted on you!

Tell me about the house prices please :D

What was it 5 years ago ?

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Ha Ha Ha Ha

1.Oil Prices Down

2.Security alert degraded

3.FTSE 100 UP 1%

4.Dow Jones UP 1%

Any business analyst will be laughing at you.

You must be the biggest idiot on this web site (by the way you all are).

P.S. I just got my bonus 25 grand (Crisis ? What crisis ?)

I was always taught to value people for what they are and not what they have. A totally alien concept to you.

There is a terrible emptiness in modern British life today, so lacking in substance and purpose. And it's people just like you who epitomise everything that is vacuous and squalid in that society.

If your bonus was for 20 million you'd still be poor my friend. Money will never be able to fill the gaping hole inside you. The best part of you clearly ran down your mother's scabrous, ulcerated leg.

P.s. I think I'm starting to get the hang of this.

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So you'd give away your 25K bonus to the poor and needy would you then gus? Honest answer?

Um. Can I get back to you on that?

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Guest X-QUORK

I imagine Gus would want to keep his bonus, but wouldn't have been so vulgar as to declare the fact that he'd received it to a bunch of strangers on a website.

Anyway, best not to feed trolls...just ignore the c0ckstand.

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  • 342 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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