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Jason

Cebr: House Prices To Rise 71% In 15 Years

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4788815.stm

Women are set to represent more than half of Britain's millionaires by 2020, according to a UK think-tank.
High divorce pay-outs and living longer will mean 53% of millionaires will be women, says the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
The think-tank forecasts that the house prices will increase by 71% over the next 15 years.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-2309863,00.html

OLDER WOMEN are about to become more attractive. Most of Britain's millionaires will soon be women in their mid-fifties, it is forecast.
Figures from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), published tomorrow, suggest that the number of millionaires in Britain — 376,000 today — will nearly double to 690,000 by 2010.
Between now and 2020 the CEBR expects a continued rise in the stock market and a 71% surge in house prices, increasing in line with average earnings plus a premium for the rising population and continued housing shortages.

Edit:

71% rise in 15 years isn't that much. Cash in the bank would more than double in that time.

71% rise over 15 years is 3.65% increase each year.

Edited by Jason

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...a 71% surge in house prices, increasing in line with average earnings plus a premium for the rising population and continued housing shortages.

Edit:

71% rise in 15 years isn't that much. Cash in the bank would more than double in that time.

3.7% p.a. to be exact. Not exactly what I'd call a surge... :ph34r:

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4788815.stm

Women are set to represent more than half of Britain's millionaires by 2020, according to a UK think-tank.
High divorce pay-outs and living longer will mean 53% of millionaires will be women, says the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
The think-tank forecasts that the house prices will increase by 71% over the next 15 years.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-2309863,00.html

OLDER WOMEN are about to become more attractive. Most of Britain's millionaires will soon be women in their mid-fifties, it is forecast.
Figures from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), published tomorrow, suggest that the number of millionaires in Britain — 376,000 today — will nearly double to 690,000 by 2010.
Between now and 2020 the CEBR expects a continued rise in the stock market and a 71% surge in house prices, increasing in line with average earnings plus a premium for the rising population and continued housing shortages.

Edit:

71% rise in 15 years isn't that much. Cash in the bank would more than double in that time.

71% rise over 15 years is 3.65% increase each year.

Yeah its only 3.75% a year on average which is not much mroe than CPI. It doesnt mean that a crash cant happen and then have greater than 3.75% growth in say last 5years of the 15. What rates are income increasing at though? If income are growing at around 3.75% there will be no increase in affordability assuming a constant IR :o

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4788815.stm

Women are set to represent more than half of Britain's millionaires by 2020, according to a UK think-tank.
High divorce pay-outs and living longer will mean 53% of millionaires will be women, says the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
The think-tank forecasts that the house prices will increase by 71% over the next 15 years.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-2309863,00.html

OLDER WOMEN are about to become more attractive. Most of Britain's millionaires will soon be women in their mid-fifties, it is forecast.
Figures from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), published tomorrow, suggest that the number of millionaires in Britain — 376,000 today — will nearly double to 690,000 by 2010.
Between now and 2020 the CEBR expects a continued rise in the stock market and a 71% surge in house prices, increasing in line with average earnings plus a premium for the rising population and continued housing shortages.

Edit:

71% rise in 15 years isn't that much. Cash in the bank would more than double in that time.

71% rise over 15 years is 3.65% increase each year.

But it's tax free.

Any interest you get on savings gets taxed.

Also, you can't 'live' in a savings account. You would have to deduct rent from your 'cash in the bank' growth.

So the house wins...

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How superficial - personally I go for looks...

Better hope women don't follow the same strategy if your avatar is anything to go by... :lol:

But it's tax free.

Any interest you get on savings gets taxed.

Also, you can't 'live' in a savings account. You would have to deduct rent from your 'cash in the bank' growth.

So the house wins...

You have to service the interest on your mortgage as well as repaying the capital. That probably wipes out the rent deduction, possibly even exceeds it as in many areas renting is cheaper than an IO mortgage on the same property.

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You have to service the interest on your mortgage as well as repaying the capital. That probably wipes out the rent deduction, possibly even exceeds it as in many areas renting is cheaper than an IO mortgage on the same property.

Are you serious?

If you need a mortgage to buy the house then you have no cash mountain (on day 1) to put in the bank to compete with the 71% house price growth.

Like I said. The house wins.

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Are you serious?

If you need a mortgage to buy the house then you have no cash mountain (on day 1) to put in the bank to compete with the 71% house price growth.

Like I said. The house wins.

If you have a 'cash mountain' you're not in the typical house buying scenario. A more realistic or common situation is deciding where to invest a stream of income over those 15 years. I agree a house probably still wins, but it also carries higher risks.

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But it's tax free.

Any interest you get on savings gets taxed.

Also, you can't 'live' in a savings account. You would have to deduct rent from your 'cash in the bank' growth.

So the house wins...

Also, people conveniently ignore the leverage involved with mortgage financed house purchases.

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Are you serious?

If you need a mortgage to buy the house then you have no cash mountain (on day 1) to put in the bank to compete with the 71% house price growth.

Like I said. The house wins.

but

What if the house prices fell?

a quick glance at the ons site follow one link and no one on earht would invest in UK property over 25 years..

;) link on the home page..

I won't say which

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But you're missing my point. I was responding to all these posts that claim you can make as much return by keeping your deposit in a BS, if house prices were to rise 71% in 15 years.

It is an important point though. If the two scenarios (BS rates and house price rise of 71%) were definite occurences then property wins hands down. However BS rates are fairly low risk whereas property prices may be a lot lower than the predicted level. Leveraging that additional risk makes it even worse. In terms of expected return or risk-adjusted return its not so clear which is the winner and the answer will depend in part upon your personal appetite for risk.

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Over time, house prices have increased in value more than RPI, as have our earnings. This is pretty logical, as the amount we now spend on food and consumer has decreased as a proportion of our income and spare cash chases the essential in fixed supply - property.

I would not be at all suprised if house prices rose 71% over 15 years, but that does not mean that they are not over-valued now. Nearly everyone recognises that they are - from the parents who have to dig deep to get their kids on the ladder to the BTL landlord who cannot cover the mortage.

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It is an important point though. If the two scenarios (BS rates and house price rise of 71%) were definite occurences then property wins hands down. However BS rates are fairly low risk whereas property prices may be a lot lower than the predicted level. Leveraging that additional risk makes it even worse. In terms of expected return or risk-adjusted return its not so clear which is the winner and the answer will depend in part upon your personal appetite for risk.

Of course, but the counter-argument to the risk is the opportunity (of prices rising beyond expectations)

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Leverage=Leveraged risk

But dependant on how the market pans, Leverage=Leveraged Profits. Massive Profits. With Little Money Down

to the BTL landlord who cannot cover the mortage.

But lot's do not. And will not. Even with another .75% rise.

This is the reality. The majority of people may have more intelligence than you percieve.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4788815.stm

Women are set to represent more than half of Britain's millionaires by 2020, according to a UK think-tank.
High divorce pay-outs and living longer will mean 53% of millionaires will be women, says the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
OLDER WOMEN are about to become more attractive. Most of Britain's millionaires will soon be women in their mid-fifties, it is forecast.
OK folks who fancies a bit of stretch-marked wrinkled totty(who's a bit dry downstairs due to the menopause) for a few grand inheritance???.....sounds like prostitution to me but how low will YOU go???
..or better still,should young destitute FTB's be actively seeking out these ladies as a bit of payback,or shall we leave it to the albanians???
Edited by oracle

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..or better still,should young destitute FTB's be actively seeking out these ladies as a bit of payback,or shall we leave it to the albanians???

ha ha ha funniest post in ages. :-)

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My wife will be a millionaire in a few years time. Worked damn hard and long to get there.

She has several very rich single female friends who are desperate for a decent man to have kids with. Standards are way too high given the paucity of availability. I only get by with good looks, charm and big feet.

It's a career decision for many that they are just beginning to realise may not be the best.

We also have many married / long term relationship friends who are both seriously well off. Both earning, both still progressing towards the early retirement in clover. Women in senior executive roles in blue chip companies is a fairly new phenomenon.

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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