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Irish Bubble To Burst!

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I thought Irish house prices only went up!

Sunday Business Post

Mortgage brokers predict drop in house prices in 2007

13/08/2006 - 10:56:24 AM

The Independent Mortgage Advisors Federation have predicted that the property market bubble will burst next year.

The mortgage brokers group have warned there are warning signs of major slowdown in the market that could lead to a fall in house prices in 2007.

The federation claimed that the latest hikes in interest rates and fuel prices will mean consumers will tighten their belts next year and first-time buyers will be affected, as the amount of money they can borrow will drop.

Edited by Smarter than the average bear!

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I thought Irish house prices only went up!

Sunday Business Post

Mortgage brokers predict drop in house prices in 2007

13/08/2006 - 10:56:24 AM

The Independent Mortgage Advisors Federation have predicted that the property market bubble will burst next year.

The mortgage brokers group have warned there are warning signs of major slowdown in the market that could lead to a fall in house prices in 2007.

The federation claimed that the latest hikes in interest rates and fuel prices will mean consumers will tighten their belts next year and first-time buyers will be affected, as the amount of money they can borrow will drop.

Dublin and the surburbs have some crazy prices, so much so you just assume that you're dreaming them. They have allowed people to borrow way beyond their means. Rent actually seems cheap by comparison. When you consider that wages are not really that good and that the euroland interest rates are rising I think they will be fecked. By contrast I think England looks cheap!!!!!!!!!

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For an interesting viewpoint on the Irish economy, see

Finfacts

Note in particular the facts:

Despite the apparent golden scenario, there is a very evident sense that Ireland is currently operating in two parallel universes.

In one world, there are the primarily American-owned world class firms who are responsible for most of Ireland's exports. Last week, US financial services giant Citigroup was named as Irish Exporter of the Year.

These powerhouses are the key drivers of the Irish economy.

90% of industrial exports are made by foreign owned firms

Most of the products we manufacture are designed elsewhere

The bulk of our exports are marketed/sold by organisations based outside Ireland

Ireland's industrial base relies on 149,654 jobs in 1,273 foreign-owned companies and on 147,895 jobs in 7,390 Irish firms. The service sector, with 240,000 businesses registered for VAT, employs about two-thirds of workers and accounts for 70% of GDP.

As we overwhelmingly depend on the foreign-owned sector not only in funding our public services but in providing high-paid employment for graduates both directly and indirectly through services provided by leading law and accounting firms, how prepared are we for large-scale movement of mobile capital in the age of globalisation?

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That headline was on the front of Irelands main sunday business paper ,i can imagine all the sheeple getting their pints of milk and sunday papers today seeing the headline and their hearts sinking :( Then they'll say to themselves "ah its different here! " :) and "ah sure they've been predicting that for years and it hasnt happened, i'll be allrite " :P

Even the top bankers are predicting growth slowing to 3% (nominal growth) in 2007 (not too long to go!), theres many many "investors " only in the market for capital appreciation and when it slows to the rate of inflation or lower as the banks and mortgage brokers are predicting many/most will be heading for the exits with rates being "so high" and having to subsidise their tennants to a fine tune.

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I doubt that anything happening in Ireland will prevent the ECB from changing rates to best suit Germany. Germany still has a function manufacturing sector, nay a functioning economy that isn;t reliant on debt-fueled spending - they will not have gone through all the austerity pain to let that go now.

ECB are looking to raise again soom.

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I doubt that anything happening in Ireland will prevent the ECB from changing rates to best suit Germany. Germany still has a function manufacturing sector, nay a functioning economy that isn;t reliant on debt-fueled spending - they will not have gone through all the austerity pain to let that go now.

ECB are looking to raise again soom.

Here, here

Germany indeed still has a solid ecomony without the smoke and mirror effect of asset bubbles (just needs some stimulation of the domestic market though).

It provides me with a job as a technical manual and image brochure translator (and other Brits I know who are mechanical engineers and scientists). Britian on the other hand has priced me out of the housing market and I do not have the skills for the ethereal, spiv-centric activities like estate agents, economists etc. that are currently infesting UK society under Brown´s so-called miracle economy.

The ECB should not base its interest rates on the mistakes of a small country of four million people on teh Atlantic seaboard which has let its housing market get out of control.

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how prepared are we for large-scale movement of mobile capital in the age of globalisation?

Interesting end point. Perhaps all of Ireland will be like Flint, Michigan which was abandoned by the Ford Motor Corporation and effectively went into economic decline as a result. Michael Moore made the film "Roger and Me" about it.

Imagine this happening to a whole country.

Imagine the impact on property prices wherever leveraged Irish investors see the ground cut away underneath them.

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Dublin and the surburbs have some crazy prices, so much so you just assume that you're dreaming them. They have allowed people to borrow way beyond their means. Rent actually seems cheap by comparison.

Too true, my sister is renting with a friend in Dublin, they rent rather a sweet little 2-bed cottage for 1000 euros a month between them. The owner paid 800,000! :o:rolleyes:

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Too true, my sister is renting with a friend in Dublin, they rent rather a sweet little 2-bed cottage for 1000 euros a month between them. The owner paid 800,000! :o:rolleyes:

Sweet Jesus, that's 1.5% yield. Gross!

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Sweet Jesus, that's 1.5% yield. Gross!

Thats the gross yield in many of the more salubrious parts of Dublin, with rates heading higher and the banks and mortgage brokers forecasting a slowdown to near zero next year these "investors" will be exposed ,many will head for the door to cash in and lead the market lower and lower.

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FFS, a rise from 2% to 3% is only 1%... :rolleyes:

And to 3.5% by next year is only 1.5%... :rolleyes:

:lol::lol::lol:

Ireland is well and truly focked - as we have been saying here for around 2 years. B)

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FFS, a rise from 2% to 3% is only 1%... :rolleyes:

And to 3.5% by next year is only 1.5%... :rolleyes:

:lol::lol::lol:

Ireland is well and truly focked - as we have been saying here for around 2 years. B)

Paddy better get used to planting tatties again and swop his Golf TDI for a bicycle !!

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Good article confirming a one sided consumer led economy built on American and EEC money . When the American bubble bursts so will this one. Add these probems to the UK bubble and we will watch Ireland sink in Debt . Paddy get your tractor out and start planting tatties again as the party is over.

Edited by faloos

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Paddy better get his tractor out again and get back to basics as his miracle screwdriver ecnomy will come to a grinding halt soon. Who in their right mind would want to pay these prices for a home within such a fragile one sided economy. Whatever happened to education !!!

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Enough already. I would be willing to take snide remarks on our bubble economy from a German with a real economy, but from Brits? You guys have had numerous opportunities to learn from your mistakes but keep deluding yourselves. :blink:

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Enough already. I would be willing to take snide remarks on our bubble economy from a German with a real economy, but from Brits? You guys have had numerous opportunities to learn from your mistakes but keep deluding yourselves. :blink:

A Scots Engineer and Pilot actually. Watch out when the American economy shrinks and it withdraws its companies out of Ireland to reposition them in the newly joined EEC countries to take advantage of more grants etc. You are deluding yourself if you think you have a special relationship with them as they will leave your country high and dry as they try to save their special dollar.

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One thing that I find quite sad about Ireland (although it´s maybe the price you have to pay for progress) is the way vast tracts of unspoilt and beautiful countryside have been churned up to make way for houses.

It´s even causing infrastuctural problems, see:

Save Inishowen

Things like this could have an impact on the tourist industry. As Germans or Dutch, for example, live in a highly-industrialized and populated country they really one to get away from it all to somewhere unspoilt like Ireland or Sweden

Edited by Caledonian-Emigre

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A Scots Engineer and Pilot actually. Watch out when the American economy shrinks and it withdraws its companies out of Ireland to reposition them in the newly joined EEC countries to take advantage of more grants etc. You are deluding yourself if you think you have a special relationship with them as they will leave your country high and dry as they try to save their special dollar.

I think you'll find a broad acceptance in Ireland that we have allowed a monstrous property bubble develop. The media are quite open about it (now), the national broadcaster RTE has raised the issue on several occasions, opposition political parties have campaigned on the issue. We know we are over exposed to a weak dollar and American MNC's. The bust will hurt badly no doubt about it. Hopefully we won't repeat the mistake.

As a Scot you would no doubt appreciate that the UK is in an equally precarious position and that the bursting property bubble will have a similarly predictable impact on the British economy.

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I think you'll find a broad acceptance in Ireland that we have allowed a monstrous property bubble develop. The media are quite open about it (now), the national broadcaster RTE has raised the issue on several occasions, opposition political parties have campaigned on the issue. We know we are over exposed to a weak dollar and American MNC's. The bust will hurt badly no doubt about it. Hopefully we won't repeat the mistake.

I agree with the above though it woulnd't have been possible to say it at the start of this year.

It will hurt a lot, and for a long time. We might still be dragging ourselves out of this in 2020. And unless we start electing some competent politicians and not people like Bertie it'll be straight back to this shite. If this recession destroys FF it'll be worth it though. Long as the Shinners don't get the support...

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I think you'll find a broad acceptance in Ireland that we have allowed a monstrous property bubble develop. The media are quite open about it (now), the national broadcaster RTE has raised the issue on several occasions, opposition political parties have campaigned on the issue. We know we are over exposed to a weak dollar and American MNC's. The bust will hurt badly no doubt about it. Hopefully we won't repeat the mistake.

As a Scot you would no doubt appreciate that the UK is in an equally precarious position and that the bursting property bubble will have a similarly predictable impact on the British economy.

Total agreement ! I will feel sorry for the young people of Ireland as all they wish for is a home to bring up their family. And as for these irresponsible ministers and bankers well maybe they should be treated like second hand car salesmen. Scum!! Yes same will happen in the UK as only 15% of our economy is actually manufacturing down from 33% in the 70s. MAN CANNOT LIVE BY PHONE SHOPS AND STARBUCKS ALONE. Disgusting isnt it as we both have good education in our countries but the fatal flaw is that we leave it up to the politicians to run the country !! when will we learn.

Edited by faloos

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Too true, my sister is renting with a friend in Dublin, they rent rather a sweet little 2-bed cottage for 1000 euros a month between them. The owner paid 800,000! :o:rolleyes:

It seems that the normal rent is 1000Euros for 500,000Euro 'worth?' of house. They talk about how much they've made all the time. It's really sustainable!

These rentals contradict the high house prices and underpin my total belief in a huge crash. It's not even as if they have a huge population and lack of space to warrant this ridiculous situation. Interesting to watch this economy.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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