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ollie plimsolls

Bank Experiments With A 5% Solution

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He's only saying 5% is fine because he got laughed at during the press conference last wednesday (watch the webcast).


Inflation data will calm rate fears
AFTER last week's warning from the Bank of England that inflation could top 3% in the next few months, some respite will come with this week's official figures.
The inflation rate in July is expected to have stayed close to June's 2.5% rate, ahead of its predicted rise in the autumn on the back of higher domestic energy prices and increased university tuition fees.
This is in contrast to America, where inflation is expected to rise again, triggering worries that this month's pause in interest rates by the Federal Reserve will only be temporary.
Here, the Bank will be in the spotlight again, after its decision to raise rates from 4.5% to 4.75% on August 3. The minutes of the meeting that led to that decision will be released on Wednesday and are expected to show a clear-cut vote in favour of the increase. According to a survey of analysts by Ideaglobal.com, the financial research company, the median expectation is for a 7-1 vote for the hike.

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Having a late night and saw this weeks david smith column and thought it might be of interest to some.

Seems Smith now thinks 5% is to come this year with possibly more to follow.

Smith in FT

Interesting that the uber-dove David Smith appears to now accept that higher rates are likely.

Only a few months ago he was talking about rate cuts.

But I note that he ends the article on a typically dovish note.


The risk is that the Bank talks itself into an inflation problem that isn’t really there, and then has to deal with the consequences.

David has been under-estimating inflation for a while know. If past performance relates to future performance then I suspect he will have done the same again.

Good old Mervyn, god bless him, is on the ball as usual. If he is worried about inflation risk then we should all be.


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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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