IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 It doesn't work like that - NHS direct, with low-skill people guided by an expert system is an example of how it begins. And ends. Fine for diagnosing a sore throat or a cut finger. You can't use an expert system in fields such as medicine where the problems are constantly evolving due to new illnesses and diseases, new treatments etc. Expert systems require training by experts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pooh Bear Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 I don't expect to see my GP replaced with a robot anytime soon... From this page: This robot doctor is doing the rounds as part of a trial at St Mary's Hospital in Paddington.The doctor's face appears on this screen as the robot - dubbed Sister Mary - does her rounds. The webcam sends back images that the doctor can see at his control station. My GP is an idiot. Years ago he diagnosed my broken coccyx as an ingrowing hair! Can't wait for him to be replaced with a robot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Expert systems require training by experts. And once they're trained they can be reproduced for next to nothing. Anyone training to be a doctor right now is deluding themselves: well before they retire a computer wired up to a body scanner will be able to do most of the things that doctors do today, and do them better. Medicine is going to become a branch of engineering and IT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 From this page: My GP is an idiot. Years ago he diagnosed my broken coccyx as an ingrowing hair! Can't wait for him to be replaced with a robot. I'd be terrified if that thing approached me when I was ill in hospital... Its not replacing a doctor, just allowing him to sit on his lazy **** and diagnose patients from the comfort of his couch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Its not replacing a doctor, just allowing him to sit on his lazy **** and diagnose patients from the comfort of his couch! But, don't forget: that couch could just as well be in China or India as Britain. Anything that eliminates the need for a doctor to be physically located near their patients opens up their job to global competition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 And once they're trained they can be reproduced for next to nothing. Anyone training to be a doctor right now is deluding themselves: well before they retire a computer wired up to a body scanner will be able to do most of the things that doctors do today, and do them better. Medicine is going to become a branch of engineering and IT. You missed my point - if the problems in medicine are constantly evolving then an expert system is rapidly out of date. There have been predictions of technology rendering us all unnecessary for decades but very few of them have yet come true. But, don't forget: that couch could just as well be in China or India as Britain. Anything that eliminates the need for a doctor to be physically located near their patients opens up their job to global competition. It'd need more than a webcam to be able to do anything more than simple rounds of the ward. What about when he needs to poke and prod a lump in your arm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 You missed my point - if the problems in medicine are constantly evolving then an expert system is rapidly out of date. Big fat deal in the era of automated software updates. I honestly don't see why you keep pretending that your GP is continually detecting and analysing new diseases that no-one knew of before: in reality, most of that work is done by a small number of researchers, who would then update the expert systems. In addition, as biotech replaces biology, it will be able to _tell_ you what's gone wrong, with no need for the 'doctor' to figure that out. Just as cars can increasingly now tell you what's wrong with them rather than needing a mechanic to figure it out. There have been predictions of technology rendering us all unnecessary for decades but very few of them have yet come true. On the contrary: many of them have come true. Huge numbers of jobs have already been eliminated by computers and more are going to be eliminated all the time: the odd thing is, 'knowledge jobs' are often easier to eliminate than unskilled physical jobs, because it's much harder to build a robot to do things that involve vision and manipulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 No one serious has predicted it would happen yet, since the scale of the problem became properly understood in the 1960s. Most serious predictions have set the date for about 2020 for general human processing ability at $1,000 one-off cost, since I started following it in the eighties. We are on schedule, and indeed ahead by a few years of the very precise roadmaps published in the mid-nineties. Then add another 25 years to train the thing to reach the capabilities of a human doctor - after all thats how long it takes a human with 'general human processing ability' to get up to the required standard... Not to mention the technological advances in robotics required to recreate a skilled surgeon. And who will look after all these complex machines when they break down or need maintenance? Seems like the doctors might need doctors... I didn't miss your point. Do you seriously think it is more difficult to keep one expert computer system up-to-date (that is networked/replicated in every GP's office) than to keep every GP's medical training bang up to scratch? Yes, if the only way to gain the required expert knowledge is practising in the field of medicine and being exposed to these new problems. Huge numbers of jobs have already been eliminated by computers and more are going to be eliminated all the time Thats news to me - got any examples? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 This has been done to death, and is off-topic, but it is feasible to expect that the best surgeon in the world's brain can be scanned in 2020 and replicated into a sufficiently good robot body. I'd say give it another decade to iron out all the problems and legalities, except that in the past, valuable new tools (mobile phones, the net) have progressed much more rapidly than predicted, not less. That's utterly laughable! I work in Psychology and many of my colleagues are working at the cutting edge of neuroscience. They barely understand how the brain works or how the different parts interact, let alone being able to scan someone's brain and dump it in a computer. 3020 is a more realistic guess than 2020... Its not really off-topic as changes in technology and productivity have a huge impact on wage growth and economic performance, hence house prices. Doomsayer predictions of all our jobs being replaced by robots were put forward as one reason why we might see wage deflation in the near future. I think this is nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pooh Bear Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Its not really off-topic as changes in technology and productivity have a huge impact on wage growth and economic performance, hence house prices. Doomsayer predictions of all our jobs being replaced by robots were put forward as one reason why we might see wage deflation in the near future. I think this is nonsense. The point isn't that all our jobs are going to be replaced by robots. The point is that the internet makes it possible to outsource nearly every single job you can think of to India or China, even something like a GP. Call centres are outsourced already. Things like law, accounting and finance will be next - and well inside your 10 year timeframe. Even the tiny minority of jobs you'd think it was difficult to outsource, like GPs, could eaily be outsourced in less than 10 years. To think that wage inflation in the UK of 5% is possible when nearly every job can be outsourced to the billions of Chinese & Indians willing to work for a fraction of UK wages is nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grasshopper Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Profession - High Earner - Low Earner Alternative General Practice - GP - Nurse Practioner Teaching - Teacher - Non-Teaching Assistant Policing - Police Officer - Community Constable Low earner alternatives are taking on many of the roles of the high earner and will ultimately depress wages. Wage inflation? The BOE doesn't seem to think this is a problem to any significant extent mainly due to immigrant labour depressing wages. See BOE Quarterly inflation report. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...eport/index.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 (edited) I also know many neuroscientists. Yours is a common mistake: not understanding that the rate of change of progress is advancing exponentially. Your notion of this being the far future is correct, at current rates of change. There is also the better known error, that when people try to imagine future advances they visualise themselves or their whole lab, or their whole company or university working on it. They do not visualise every government, company, university, lab and loner in the world all making contributions large and small, networked. Actually if you read the literature on scientific and technological development its rare for exponential increase to continue indefinitely. The longer term pattern is for bursts of development followed by periods of incremental change, until the next big paradigm shift (Kuhn is probably the best known historian of science). IBM is currently working on a simulation of a small fraction of a human brain - they will have a computer that can match the whole brain in raw processing power in 2009 and scanners of sufficient quality in the same year. Raw processing power is very different from actual ability to do tasks or solve problems. Man flew to the moon on processing power less than an Intel 386. He hasn't done much more since. My latest computer doesn't do anything much that my 5 year old machine does, its just a bit faster and looks nicer. I recommend you read The Singularity is Near and then make your criticisms publicly to the author. So far no credible criticisms have been made, except along the Meldrewish lines of "I don't believe it". You mean this one: Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil examines the next step in the evolutionary process of the union of human and machine. Kurzweil foresees the dawning of a new civilization where we will be able to transcend our biological limitations and amplify our creativity, combining our biological skills with the vastly greater capacity, speed and knowledge-sharing abilities of our creations. In practical terms, human ageing and illness will be reversed; pollution will be stopped and world hunger and poverty will be solved. There will be no clear distinction between human and machine, real reality and virtual reality. "The Singularity is Near" offers a view of the coming age that is both a dramatic culmination of centuries of technological ingenuity and a genuinely inspiring vision of our ultimate destiny. I think the Meldrew-ish response or simply pissing your pants laughing is quite justified... Edited August 13, 2006 by IamSpartacus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Wage inflation? The BOE doesn't seem to think this is a problem to any significant extent mainly due to immigrant labour depressing wages.See BOE Quarterly inflation report. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...eport/index.htm Page 8 of the latest report: "With energy and import price inflation moderating, and against a background of robust demand growth and limited spare capacity, some recovery in profit margins and pay growth is expected. The inflation profile is somewhat higher than in the May Report, particularly in the near term." Sounds like positive wage inflation to me... Well, if you read the New Scientist article, IBM estimates a first simulated brain by 2016 or so. That gives them four years to bring it to market. I just read it... The end product, which will take at least a decade to achieve, can then be stimulated and observed to see how different parts of the brain behave. For example, visual information can be inputted to the visual cortex, while Blue Brain’s response is observed. So in 2016 they'll have a brain ready... to start working out how the hell it works and does simple things like processing visual information. A long way from replacing human thought and creativity methinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pooh Bear Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 I agree - the exact dating of the far future stuff is a straw man argument. The point is there is an existing and growing downward pressure even on something as rare and expert as GP wages (which is why NuLabours GP wage explosion is such a laughable example of the wonders of government interventionism). Yep, the internet is effectively bringing in billions of Indians and Chinese to work in our offices. These new entrants to the UK labour force are prepared to work for wages 1/10th of those in the UK - Hence wage deflation in the future. The point where the robots take over and do the jobs isn't going to bother us - It'll be the Indian & Chinese workers who will be priced out of the job maket by silicon - thankfully we won't have any jobs left for the evil robots to nab. In the short term, think Durch hit one of the major nails on the head earlier when he was talking about investment banking being outsourced. Hong Kong et al is the future for banking. The investment bank jobs can go to Hong Kong just as easily as sarbane oxley bought them to the UK. Then what will the UK economy have left? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Yep, the internet is effectively bringing in billions of Indians and Chinese to work in our offices. These new entrants to the UK labour force are prepared to work for wages 1/10th of those in the UK - Hence wage deflation in the future. The point where the robots take over and do the jobs isn't going to bother us - It'll be the Indian & Chinese workers who will be priced out of the job maket by silicon - thankfully we won't have any jobs left for the evil robots to nab. In the short term, think Durch hit one of the major nails on the head earlier when he was talking about investment banking being outsourced. Hong Kong et al is the future for banking. The investment bank jobs can go to Hong Kong just as easily as sarbane oxley bought them to the UK. Then what will the UK economy have left? Thats a somewhat static view of the world economy, assuming there is a fixed amount of wealth out there and so if China and India are getting richer we must be getting poorer. Those workers will do the jobs for 1/10 our wages now because their cost of living is lower. Once they get more money their own economies will develop too, and they'll start to demand a higher standard of living equivalent to our own. They'll then need more of their own doctors, lawyers, accountants, not to mention creating demand for goods and services that we can also provide to them. There's every chance that growth in the world economy, helped by technology and productivity gains, will allow everyone to benefit. It is only a machine (no matter how complex) that accepts inputs and gives outputs. A very Cartesian and deterministic view of human consciousness! I assume you don't believe in free will, love or art then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grasshopper Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Page 8 of the latest report: "With energy and import price inflation moderating, and against a background of robust demand growth and limited spare capacity, some recovery in profit margins and pay growth is expected. The inflation profile is somewhat higher than in the May Report, particularly in the near term." Sounds like positive wage inflation to me... I did say significant wage inflation - not postive wage inflation.but I take your point. If wages increase at a rate which the BOE feel are inflationalry they will simply raise interest rates. I just don't see real wage growth significantly outstriping CPI or any other inlation index. Rightly or wrongly the UK labour market looks incresingly like that in the US i.e incresing bias towards the employer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pooh Bear Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Thats a somewhat static view of the world economy, assuming there is a fixed amount of wealth out there and so if China and India are getting richer we must be getting poorer. Those workers will do the jobs for 1/10 our wages now because their cost of living is lower. Once they get more money their own economies will develop too, and they'll start to demand a higher standard of living equivalent to our own. They'll then need more of their own doctors, lawyers, accountants, not to mention creating demand for goods and services that we can also provide to them. There's every chance that growth in the world economy, helped by technology and productivity gains, will allow everyone to benefit. Yeah, in the long term, It's all good. Quite like the idea of all the money we squander on pointless tat going to Chinese & Indians so they can eat and buy medicines, etc. Very much like your view of technology empowering everyone and making the world better. Bit like Iain Banks' sci fi stuff. The point is there ain't no way in hell that wages in the UK are going to inflate by 5% on average over the next decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 I did say significant wage inflation - not postive wage inflation.but I take your point. If wages increase at a rate which the BOE feel are inflationalry they will simply raise interest rates. I just don't see real wage growth significantly outstriping CPI or any other inlation index. Rightly or wrongly the UK labour market looks incresingly like that in the US i.e incresing bias towards the employer. I imagine it will slightly outstrip CPI due to GDP growth. However, even at current levels of around 4% p.a. over the course of a mortgage that compunds up to a serious boost in affordability. Individuals also experience higher personal wage inflation due to career progression, often around the time of buying a house, regardless of the average rate. This is just rubbish, unworthy of a 1st year philosophy undergraduate. I'm not going to debate this with you anymore. You don't seem to be able to admit you were wrong. Shame, it was just getting interesting... I didn't say you were wrong, simply that my own opinion - based on all I have seen and heard - differs from yours. Only time will tell which of us is proved right. You are smart, but you don't know everything. I wouldn't even go that far. More a talent for ******** and a bad habit of playing devils advocate just to get a rise out of people Yeah, in the long term, It's all good. Quite like the idea of all the money we squander on pointless tat going to Chinese & Indians so they can eat and buy medicines, etc. Very much like your view of technology empowering everyone and making the world better. Bit like Iain Banks' sci fi stuff. The point is there ain't no way in hell that wages in the UK are going to inflate by 5% on average over the next decade. Then put your money where your mouth is! I have - my mortgage is a stretch now but I'm betting on it being a lot more affordable in 10 years time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pooh Bear Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Then put your money where your mouth is! I have - my mortgage is a stretch now but I'm betting on it being a lot more affordable in 10 years time... Have done so already. My pot of gold (literally) will currently buy a small flat outright. I think it'll buy a house in 3 years or so. Worst case scenario, it'll still buy a small flat. I'm not betting on anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Have done so already. My pot of gold (literally) will currently buy a small flat outright. I think it'll buy a house in 3 years or so. Worst case scenario, it'll still buy a small flat. I'm not betting on anything. Cash or a literal pot of gold? There's always base rate risks, currency risks and commodity price risks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 I imagine it will slightly outstrip CPI due to GDP growth. GDP growth in the UK over the last few years has been driven by private and government borrowing. Without that borrowing, we'd have been in a recession for a long time now. Individuals also experience higher personal wage inflation due to career progression, often around the time of buying a house, regardless of the average rate. Not when the average FTB is in their mid 30s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pooh Bear Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Cash or a literal pot of gold? There's always base rate risks, currency risks and commodity price risks... When you belong to Alan Greenspan's school of Economic Freedom you don't feel as though you're betting anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 When you belong to Alan Greenspan's school of Economic Freedom you don't feel as though you're betting anything. Interesting article Better hope no clever nano-technologist finds a way of making unlimited gold by building it molecule by molecule... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pooh Bear Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 Interesting article Better hope no clever nano-technologist finds a way of making unlimited gold by building it molecule by molecule... We'll have robot doctors well before alchemy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 13, 2006 Share Posted August 13, 2006 We'll have robot doctors well before alchemy. IYHO (and mine) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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